Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
518 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 518 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

Convection continues to increase in coverage lifting north through
the southern half of the forecast area. To this point shortly before
21Z...storms have behaved with just a few warnings near Chicago and
Cincy. Temps currently are in the upper 70s and lower 80s with a
noticeably humid feel to the air as dewpoints are around 70.

There are parameters still in play that warrant continued eyeballs
on the convection. A diffuse warm front resides near or just north
of the forecast area currently with around 2000 j/kg MLCAPE over
much of the forecast area south of the boundary. Available shear and
helicity values are decent and certainly would support the potential
for storms to produce severe weather should they intensify ...but
the main mitigating factor right now based on sounding analysis
appears to be poor lapse rates above 800mb. That being said...lapse
rates are steeper below 800mb which would suggest any collapsing
core on a more intense cell will be capable of wind gusts in excess
of 40-50mph.

Think a narrow window exists over the next 2-3 hours where these
cells moving through southern portions of the forecast area could
intensify as they move into portions of central Indiana near and
north of I-70 where the airmass is slightly more favorable for
stronger storms. The warm front could remain a focus for enhanced
shear and will need to monitor cells as they move further north
closer to the boundary. In addition...any colliding outflows will
produce a brief but enhanced risk for spinning cells as shear
locally intensifies. Backing surface flow noted across the northern
half of the forecast area also supports the isolated tor which is
nothing new for this area.

One final point...with deep moisture available highlighted by precip
water values in excess of 1.5 inches...these storms will be soakers
with brief but excessive rainfall rates despite their steady
movement northward. For example...a quick moving cell produced
nearly an inch in Rushville in just 15-20 minutes a short time ago.
However...that northward cell movement should mitigate most flooding
concerns.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

Highlights:

* Numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms.

* Thunderstorms diminishing overnight, with isolated to scattered
  showers.

* Thunderstorms chances once again tomorrow, with a low risk of
  severe weather.

Rest of Today and Tonight...

A weak elevated mixed layer has pushed into central Indiana this
afternoon, helping create a zone of clearing. This has filled with
diurnal cumulus as the near surface layer becomes unstable. As of
18Z, this layer is still capped (-50 J/kg), but convective
temperature will be reached in the near future. Once convective
initiation is reached, a broken line of thunderstorms is expected to
develop, pushing NE through the region. As this MCS begins to cold
pool, gusts up to 50 kts will be possible, leading to an isolated
risk of severe winds. Hail could pose a threat early within the
threat timing as updrafts are stronger and ingesting clear air. With
the line segment expected to be broken outflow boundary intersection
will lead to a non-zero tornado threat along the line.

Further north, temperatures will rise through most of the afternoon,
and some isolated cells could develop in this area. Lapse rates are
slightly stronger over NE portions. This along with some backing
along the warm front could allow for a brief period of mesocyclone
development, enough for an isolated tornado threat. Continued
monitoring of the environment will be done to further assess the
potential of supercells late this afternoon.

The MCS should move through northern locations near dusk, leading to
a quieter night over central Indiana. However, moisture will still be
high in the warm sector, and with a moderate LLJ, weak showers could
develop throughout the night. Continued cloud cover will limit
temperature decreases, with lows in the mid 60s. Non-thunderstorm
winds will be strong at times this afternoon and evening, especially
as the LLJ increases. Expect sustained winds out of the S/SE around
12-15MPH with gusts up to 25MPH.

Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night...

Scattered to isolated light rain showers will still be ongoing
tomorrow morning. The main dynamic support and LLJ will be focused
east of central Indiana, but the overall environment will still be
unstable and conducive to thunderstorm development. An isolated
large hail stone or damaging wind gust is possible, but overall most
storms should remain sub-severe. Clouds will be consistent and with
cooler air aloft, temperatures will be slightly colder tomorrow with
highs in the low to mid 70s. Overnight will be similar as the low
remains aloft, Cloudy and cool. Clouds will limit diurnal cooling
however, leading to lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

Friday and Friday night...

An upper level low will move through the Ohio Valley on Friday.
Moisture will still be plentiful, and forcing with the upper low and
a jet streak will be enough to create numerous showers. The most
unstable air will have moved off to the east with the warm conveyor
belt, but enough instability will linger for the possibility of a
few thunderstorms as well. Will go likely category or higher PoPs
all areas during the day Friday. Clouds and rain will keep high
temperatures in the 60s.

Rain will have exited most areas to the east by Friday night, but
will keep some slight chance PoPs far east in the evening to account
for any lingering showers. Cool temperatures will move in behind the
system, with lows in the upper 40s northwest and lower 50s most
other ways.

Saturday...

Some lower clouds may linger across the area on Saturday, especially
east during the morning. Surface high pressure and upper ridging
will build in during the day, keeping conditions dry. Highs will
reach the mid 70s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will be to the southeast. Aloft, an upper high
will settle in over the area, as an upper trough digs into the
western USA. Southwest flow at the surface will pump warm air into
the area, and subsidence should allow for good amounts of sunshine
during the days. Thus, expect highs to reach around 90 degrees most
areas by Monday and potentially make it into the lower 90s
Tuesday and Wednesday.

There are some signs that mid level temperatures may cool enough by
Wednesday afternoon to allow some isolated pop-up convection in the
heat of the afternoon. Confidence is low at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

IMPACTS:

* VFR late this afternoon into this evening, with MVFR in/near
  convection.
* Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Highest chance
  between 21-00Z.
* Southerly winds gusting to 20-25 kts this afternoon/evening

DISCUSSION:

Clouds have broken leading to high CIGs this afternoon. This heating
will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. We
are pinpointing on the potential development of a convective system
late this afternoon, passing through KHUF, KBMG, KIND around 21-00Z.
After passage, thunderstorm chances will decrease with MVFR CIGs and
isolated light showers overnight.

Southeasterly winds will veer to southerly this afternoon, and
increase to 11-15 kts through the remainder of the TAF period at
most sites. Gusts to 20-25 kts are expected this afternoon and
evening with no gusts expected after 03Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Mesoscale...Ryan
Short Term...Updike
Long Term...50
Aviation...Updike

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
348 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

INZ051>053-060>065-067>072-262000-
Vigo-Clay-Owen-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-
Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport,
Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield,
Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus,
Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford,
Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
348 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight, with the greatest
coverage of storms expected this afternoon and this evening. A few
storms may be marginally strong/severe. Locally heavy rain is also
possible, especially early this evening south of I-70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through Friday evening for all or
some of the region...including the chance of a few strong/severe
storms, although widespread or significant severe weather is not
anticipated. Locally heavy rain is also possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-262000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Martinsville, Mooresville,
Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, and Rushville
348 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight with scattered strong to
severe storms, especially this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy
rain is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through Friday evening for all or
some of the region...including the chance of a few strong/severe
storms, although widespread or significant severe weather is not
anticipated. Locally heavy rain is also possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested into the evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
511 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

INZ048-056-252145-
Shelby IN-Hancock IN-
511 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Shelby
and central Hancock Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 511 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Greenfield to near
Shelbyville. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Greenfield around 530 PM EDT.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 101 and 105.
 Interstate 74 near mile marker 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 8579 3971 8587 3990 8580 3970 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 205DEG 26KT 3970 8586 3956 8579

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
529 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

INZ048-056-057-252200-
Rush IN-Shelby IN-Hancock IN-
529 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Shelby,
southeastern Hancock and southwestern Rush Counties through 600 PM
EDT...

At 528 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelbyville, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Shelby, southeastern Hancock and southwestern Rush Counties,
including the following locations... Morristown and Manilla.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 112 and 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 8562 3948 8576 3973 8585 3974 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 178DEG 34KT 3952 8571

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
533 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

INZ039-040-048-252200-
Madison IN-Hancock IN-Hamilton IN-
533 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Madison,
northwestern Hancock and southeastern Hamilton Counties through 600
PM EDT...

At 532 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greenfield, or 15 miles southwest of Anderson, moving north at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Madison,
northwestern Hancock and southeastern Hamilton Counties, including
the following locations... Edgewood, River Forest, Ingalls,
Pendleton, McCordsville, Fortville, Lapel, Woodlawn Heights and
Chesterfield.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 between mile markers 209 and 227.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 104 and 106.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 8573 3985 8581 3983 8590 4011 8601
      4012 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 178DEG 33KT 3988 8580

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CM