Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

Greatest threat for Severe weather across Central Indiana remains
south and east of a line from Winchester to SE of Indianapolis To
Spencer and Washington. CAPE within the area ahead of the line of
convection remains highs at or above 3000 J/KG. Sunshine and a lack
of rain and clouds across this area has allowed temperatures to rise
to the lower 80s. Winds at Indianapolis at this time have shifted to
the NW and temps have fallen to the lower 70s in the wake of the
boundary. Hail and damaging straight line winds remain the greatest
hazard threat. Storms may be capable of producing quarter size hail
and wind gusts over 60 mph.

Expect continued eastward progression of the convective across the
southeastern parts of the forecast area and
Bloomington...Columbus...Bedford...Seymour...North Vernon and
Greensburg should expect storms within the next two hours. This area
of convection should exit the forecast area by 6-7pm.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

- Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.
- Dry weather returns Sunday and Sunday Night

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows the frontal boundary
near HUF to north of IND and NW of Anderson and Muncie. Clouds
dissipating from the departing MCS were beginning to allow for some
heating in the warm sector south of the front where temps have risen
to the lower 80s. Recent radar trends show the approaching MCS
convection continuing to make progress east toward the forecast
area...but weakening upon approach. New convection is breaking out
in the warm sector across SE Indiana and KY.

This afternoon...

HRRR suggests the MCS crossing Indiana will be continue to make
progress to the northeast...but radar trends continue to suggest
weakening upon approach. This will be due to limited instability
across Indiana north of the frontal boundary and also due to a
worked over air mass due to earlier clouds and rain. Better
conditions for storms will be found across the southern parts of the
forecast area where CAPE is most favorable and where heating has had
a chance to occur today.

Tonight...

After this afternoons weather system the surface frontal boundary
should be pushed to far southern parts of the forecast area...again
limiting the source for additional instability overnight. Models
shows southwest flow in place aloft tonight with a short wave within
the flow passing well north of Indiana...across WI and the Great
Lakes. HRRR suggests another wave pushing across Indiana late this
evening and overnight...but confidence is low with that feature as
given the previous two waves...instability should be limited and
the surface boundary should be well to the south across southern
Central Indiana. Thus not all of our features are lining up well and
models seem to be having issues handling these multiple rounds of
convection. Forecast soundings show deep saturation as the storms
pass this afternoon...but fail to show deep saturation for the rest
of the night. Thus will use high pops late this afternoon...and per
the HRRR trend toward a few dry hours this evening before increasing
pops late this evening and early overnight as the final wave appears
to pass. Although will trend pops a bit lower than the NBM as
confidence is a bit low on whether this second wave of showers and
storms will come to fruition on the cold side of the boundary.

Sunday...

Models suggest southwest flow remains in place aloft with little in
the way of upper support available. The remains of the frontal
boundary are expected to be well south of Central
Indiana...elongated across Kentucky. Forecast soundings suggest
subsidence within the column with some lower level moisture trapped
beneath an inversion. This appears representative of cold air
advection stratocu in the wake of the departed front. As the day
progresses...strong high pressure over the plains is suggested to
continue to make progress into the Ohio valley...drying out the
forecast soundings and pushing the lingering frontal boundary
farther south and away from Indiana. Thus after some morning
cloudiness (mainly across southern Central Indiana) skies should
become partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Given our northerly winds
highs in the middle to upper 60s appear on the mark.

Sunday Night...

Little change is expected within the upper flow on Sunday night as
southwest flow remains along with little in the way of upper
support. Large high pressure  over WI and IA will maintain its
influence across Indiana...with subsidence and cool northerly flow
in place across Indiana. Thus will trend toward a dry forecast under
mostly clear skies and lows in the middle 40s.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

Monday-Tuesday...

Drier and cooler conditions expected as a surface high pressure
builds across the great lakes region. The surface high will likely
produce northerly flow early Monday, and veering to predominantly
easterly Monday afternoon. This will allow for lower dewpoints and
cooler temperatures. Cloud cover will begin to increase during the
day Tuesday as a Surface low begins to approach the region with
slight POPs for Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly
below average to near average for this time of year.

Tuesday night-Friday

Several damp days are possible as a deep broad trough slowly
approaches the region with Central Indiana remaining in the warm
moist sector for multiple days. Southerly flow will return early
Wednesday morning. This will allow for moisture to be advected into
the region with dewpoints increasing into the 60s. Likely POPs are
in place across the CWA from Tuesday night through early Friday.
precipitable water values, usually within the upper portions of a
1.00-1.80 inch range will bring the potential for locally moderate-
heavy rainfall. Embedded thunderstorms would be mainly widely
scattered and diurnally-driven, per generally modest shear and
considerable cloudiness limiting daytime heating on both
Wednesday/Thursday. High temperatures will be slightly below to near
average for this time of year due to cloud cover and rainfall. Lows
will be above average as persistent moisture will keep temperatures
mild overnight.

Friday night-Saturday

The broad upper trough will finally progress eastward and push the
greater axis of gulf moisture into Ohio. Cooler and somewhat drier
conditions expected with non-zero chances for rain. Northwest flow
will keep temperatures below average towards the end of the long
term period.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

IMPACTS:

* Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms possible

* IFR to MVFR conditions through 0z, predominantly MVFR through the
  night

* Ceiling and visibility restrictions possible in storms, along with
  gusty/erratic winds.

DISCUSSION:

Flying conditions will deteriorate today with a line of showers and
thunderstorms approaching the region over the next few hours.
Adjustments to timing were made for earlier onset and continued
refinement will be needed based on trends. Temporary sub-VFR
conditions due to low ceilings and visibility in storms can be
expected. Multiple rounds of rain and storms are likely from this
afternoon through tonight. MVFR ceilings will develop later this
evening or tonight for most TAF sites.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale...Puma
Short Term...Puma
Long Term...Melo
Aviation...Melo

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
325 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-220730-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer,
Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg,
Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
325 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will increase by midday, with scattered to
numerous thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and early
evening. Severe storms are possible. Damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph and hail up to golf ball size are the main threats with the most
intense storms. Lightning is a threat in all thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter should closely monitor the weather situation today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

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