Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

Highlights...

* Severe weather possible this afternoon into tonight

* Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible

* Windy and hot on Friday

Severe weather is possible this afternoon into tonight as an MCV
approaches the area. Radar shows that convection has fired up over
Southwest Indiana and is moving NE. These storms will move into far
SW counties over the next hour. A warm front is currently draped
across Central Indiana with the southern half of the CWA in the warm
sector. Moisture advection within the warm sector has increased
dewpoints into the mid and upper 60s. High dewpoints along with
daytime heating have resulted in moderate to strong instability
across southern counties. An upper wave over Illinois along with the
approaching MCV will provide the main forcing for storms with the
warm front providing subtle forcing and enhanced directional shear.
Moderate to high instability, adequate low level wind shear, and
overall forcing may produce strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. The primary threats are damaging winds and
large hail, but isolated tornadoes are possible. Storms are expected
to weaken overnight as instability decreases with the loss of
daytime heating. Southerly flow and low level moisture will limit
overnight cooling with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Friday and Friday night...

A strong LLJ will help advect warm moist air into the area. Partly
cloudy skies through the day will allow for sunshine and daytime
mixing. With this expected mixing, surface wind gusts could reach 40
mph at times. Model guidance is in good agreement that strong wind
gusts are possible tomorrow, especially over northwestern counties.
A cold front will slowly begin to approach Central Indiana late
Friday night with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across
mainly NW counties. Confidence is low in any precipitation for
Friday night as guidance continues to trend slower with the
approaching cold front.

Temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s. Indy's record high
for Friday is 90 degrees, last reached in 1977. Southerly flow and
low level moisture will keep overnight temperatures above average
with lows near 70 degrees.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

* Active weather expected this period.
* Rain chances Saturday afternoon and night
* More Rain chances on Tuesday afternoon through Thursday

Saturday and Saturday Night...

Models show SW flow in place aloft across Indiana ahead of a
broader...deeper trough in place over the northern plains. A surface
frontal boundary will be in place across NW Indiana allowing Central
Indiana to reside within the warm sector for the day. Forecast
soundings show favorable conditions for convection with attainable
convective temperatures and sufficient CAPE. Saturday should not be
a washout...but thunderstorm chances will be increasing as the day
progresses. By Saturday Night...models show the cold front sagging
southward across Central Indiana. Thus will trend toward high pops
on Saturday afternoon and evening as daytime heating initially
starts the storm chances...followed by additional development due to
the arrival and passage of the expected cold front.

Sunday Through Tuesday Morning...

Models show the cold front departing on Sunday morning as subsidence
and drying take place in the wake of the system. Aloft...weak mid
level ridging and strong surface high pressure are noted to be
pushing from the plains...across Indiana to the eastern Great Lakes
and Quebec by Tuesday Morning. Forecast soundings continue to
suggest a dry column through the period with mainly northerly or
northeasterly surface flow. Thus will trend toward a dry forecast
here with below normal high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...

Rain chances will return during this period. Models suggest a deep
upper trough pushing out of the Rockies...providing SW flow aloft
over Central Indiana on Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday and
Thursday...this upper trough is expected to push to the southern
plains while continuing to eject weak upper forcing across the Ohio
Valley within the SW flow aloft. Meanwhile a surface frontal
boundary is depicted across Central Indiana and a weak surface low
is suggested to push across the front on Wednesday into Thursday.
Finally during this time...forecast soundings show a saturated
column...mainly on Wednesday and Thursday as the best forcing
passes. Pwats at that time are suggested to be near 1.80. Thus will
have highest pops on those days.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

IMPACTS:
-Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, particularly at HUF and
BMG as well as IND
-S/SW winds gusting near 20 to 25 kts this evening and overnight.
Increasing some tomorrow morning

DISCUSSION: Largely clear skies to start out the TAF period.
Chances for storms then arrive this afternoon into evening as
storms have already formed over SW Indiana. Expecting these storms
to impact all sites except LAF from late this afternoon into
early overnight. South/ southwesterly winds will also begin to
pick up this afternoon with wind gusts to 25kts after 02Z. LLWS
will also be a concern late tonight to early tomorrow morning.
Wind gusts will increase some into tomorrow morning as well with a
jet overhead.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short Term...Melo
Long Term...Puma
Aviation...KH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
359 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065-202000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Decatur-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Martinsville, Mooresville,
Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, and Greensburg
359 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight.
Some storms may be strong to severe. Damaging winds and large hail
are the primary threats with isolated tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected at times from Friday night through
Saturday night. A few storms could be strong to severe. Damaging
winds and large hail would be the main threats.

Winds gusts up to 40 mph are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters should keep an
eye on the forecast for later developments.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ051>053-060>064-067>072-202000-
Vigo-Clay-Owen-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport,
Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield,
Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus,
Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell,
Seymour, and North Vernon
359 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain will be the
primary threats. However, tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Lightning is
a threat from any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected at times Friday night into Saturday night.
A few storms could be strong to severe. Damaging winds and large hail
are the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
452 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

INZ060-067-192115-
Knox IN-Sullivan IN-
452 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Sullivan and
northeastern Knox Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 451 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hutsonville to near Russellville. Movement
was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Sullivan around 500 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southwestern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3926 8730 3906 8724 3891 8724 3891 8719
      3883 8717 3883 8720 3881 8721 3882 8722
      3880 8723 3881 8724 3879 8724 3878 8749
      3888 8755 3890 8752 3896 8751 3899 8758
      3899 8756 3906 8757 3911 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 241DEG 33KT 3914 8758 3879 8749

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Updike

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
609 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             4 E VINCENNES           38.69N 87.37W
05/19/2022  E1.00 INCH       KNOX               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             VINCENNES               38.68N 87.51W
05/19/2022  E1.00 INCH       KNOX               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
611 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             1 N SANDBORN            38.90N 87.19W
05/19/2022  E2.00 INCH       KNOX               IN   PUBLIC

            REPORT WITH A PICTURE SHOWING AROUND 2 INCH
            HAIL JUST NORTH OF SANDBORN, IN.

&&

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             1 WSW VINCENNES         38.67N 87.52W
05/19/2022  E1.50 INCH       KNOX               IN   PUBLIC

&&

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             2 NNE WASHINGTON        38.68N 87.17W
05/19/2022  M1.25 INCH       DAVIESS            IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            1.27 INCH HAIL FOUND ALONG THE ROAD AFTER A
            BIT OF MELTING.

&&

CM