Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

Main zone of convection currently just before 02Z is focused ahead
of the cold front and in the zone of best instability from north
central Indiana southwest across the northern Wabash Valley back
into eastern Illinois. A second line of convection has been
developing across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri over the
last couple hours and is set to expand into the southwest forecast
area shortly.

Severe risk has been low but non-zero so far this evening...and the
recent storm cell that moved east from near KDEC and south of KCMI
exhibited signs of enhanced mid level rotation and even a hint of a
bookend vortex prior to crossing the state line into Vermillion
County shortly after 01Z. This has been the most intense storm
locally this evening and has already weakened substantially as it
has moved away from the better instability and low level moisture.
Waves of storms tracking from Warren Co east across Tippecanoe and
Carroll Counties over the last hour or two have also briefly
intensified and likely produced gusty winds...but remained below
severe levels.

With instability waning and the boundary layer cooling...what little
severe threat there was this evening is essentially done. Model
soundings do maintain a thin layer of elevated CAPE overnight...
enough to enable convection to persist as it expands E/NE across
much of the forecast area. Axis of stronger 850mb flow over the Ohio
Valley will continue to pump deeper moisture into central Indiana
with PWATs peaking near 1.50 inches overnight as well. Expect brief
heavy rainfall and gusty winds in stronger storms to become the
primary impacts through the night as the front sweeps across central
Indiana. Lows will largely fall into the 50s with the coolest
temperatures over the northwest half of the forecast area.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

Another warm and gusty day today with surface observations showing
temperatures across central Indiana in the upper 70s to low 80s as
of this afternoon. Strong SW flow will continue into this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. Tight pressure gradients aloft,
between high pressure to the SE and a low to the NW, will keep
the winds gusting to around 30 to 35 mph until around sunset.
Scattered showers have started forming in the NW portion of the
area as of mid afternoon, ahead of the main line of showers, but
little may be reaching the ground in these. The line of showers
and storms is currently in central Illinois, pushing eastward
toward Indiana. By late afternoon to early evening, this line
should reach our western border. Models continue to show the front
slowing quite a bit during the overnight hours which will allow
for more rainfall accumulations, particularly for areas north of
I-70 which may see a total between an inch and 1.5 inches. There
may also be some strong to severe storms over the NW, embedded
within this line as it moves into the CWA. The strong winds aloft
could potentially mix down within individual cells leading to
isolated damaging winds late this afternoon and into the evening.
CAPE of around 500 to 1000 J/kg over the NW will also help to
strengthen storms. The threat for severe weather should diminish
after sunset, but enough instability is expected to keep the
chance of thunder throughout the overnight hours.

Rain showers are expected to slowly exit to the east through the day
tomorrow as the front advances eastward. Winds will also diminish by
tomorrow morning as the tight gradients exit with the front. Behind
the front, cooler air will move in bringing temperatures closer to
normal during the day tomorrow but below normal, in the mid to upper
30s, for tomorrow night. Surface high pressure moving in as well
will allow for the end of the short term period to be dry.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

- Dry but cool Tuesday through Thursday

- Frost possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings

- Unsettled weather to return next weekend with a slight warmup

Tuesday through Thursday...

Surface high pressure over the nation's midsection early next week
will move into the Great Lakes and South on Thursday. Dry column per
model soundings and rh time sections and subsidence associated with
the high will result in little cloud cover Tuesday and Tuesday night
despite an upper low that will progress east across the Great Lakes.
After that, look for high clouds to increase in fast northwest flow
aloft ahead of a central states slow moving ridge. Good chance of
more frost overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as mostly
clear skies, subsidence and a weak surface pressure gradient spell
out an idea radiational cooling setup. Would not even be surprised
to see slightly subfreezing temperatures in sheltered locales. With
the increase in clouds and modest winds shifting to southerly on the
back side of the slowly departing high, more frost looks like more
of a long shot Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In any case,
despite plenty of sunshine Wednesday and filtered sunshine Thursday,
temperatures will be well below normal with highs mostly in the 50s.

Temperatures will start recovering toward normal on Thursday as the
pressure gradient tightens in between the exiting high and
developing upstream Rockies system. 60s look good for afternoon
highs over most locales,

Friday through Sunday...

The Rockies system will move into the Great Lakes by the weekend.
That said, confidence is low with precise timing due to model timing
and strength differences. At any rate, impulses ejecting out of this
system and increasing moisture in southerly flow will support small
shower chances over the Wabash Valley Thursday night into Friday.
Better chances of convection look to hold off until the weekend. Due
to the south and southwest winds ahead of the front, confident in
temperatures returning to seasonable with highs in the 60s and
possibly lower 70s over some locales.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 653 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

IMPACTS:

- Scattered convection increasing through the evening and into the
early overnight
- Showers will continue through the first half of Monday
- MVFR ceilings developing during the predawn hours through much of
the morning
- Southerly wind gusts peaking at 25-30kts early this evening
- Westerly winds may gust to near 20kts Monday afternoon

DISCUSSION:

Mainly cloudy skies currently across the area with scattered
convection ahead of a cold front slowly increasing in coverage.
Expect further increases in rain showers and storms through the
evening as the front moves into the region. Wind gusts initially
will be up to 30kts early this evening but should drop off prior to
midnight although could see brief higher gusts within showers and
storms into the overnight. Southwest winds will gradually veer to a
more westerly direction with the passage of the front in the predawn
hours.

A surface wave tracking along the front will spread showers back
across much of central Indiana early Monday...continuing into the
mid afternoon before finally shifting east. Model soundings show
ceilings are likely to dip to MVFR levels at KBMG/KHUF/KIND through
much of the first half of the day.  As drier air and high pressure
build in later on Monday...ceilings will return to VFR and likely
scatter towards evening. Westerly wind gusts up to 20kts are
possible Monday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Mesoscale...Ryan
Short Term...KH
Long Term...MK
Aviation...Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1006 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-250900-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer,
Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg,
Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
1006 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected overnight. A few
storms may be strong with gusty winds. Lightning and brief heavy
rainfall will be threats with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Frost and freezing conditions are possible across parts of central
Indiana Tuesday night.

Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday. It is too soon to determine
if these storms will be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
752 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

INZ028-250015-
Warren IN-
752 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Warren County
through 815 PM EDT...

At 751 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rossville, or 14 miles north of Danville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Warren County,
including the following locations... Rainsville, Pine Village, Tab
and Pence.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 8753 4048 8739 4047 8713 4037 8709
      4036 8711 4034 8713 4034 8717 4031 8724
      4029 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 252DEG 33KT 4034 8755

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Updike

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
924 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

INZ028-029-250200-
Warren IN-Tippecanoe IN-
924 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Tippecanoe and northeastern Warren Counties through 1000 PM EDT...

At 923 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Williamsport, or 10 miles southwest of Otterbein,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Lafayette and West Lafayette.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 180 and 184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8691 4038 8684 4033 8709 4037 8710
      4034 8713 4034 8717 4031 8724 4029 8726
      4028 8730 4047 8730 4048 8728 4048 8709
      4055 8709 4056 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 249DEG 30KT 4039 8723

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Updike

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
951 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

INZ021-029-250215-
Tippecanoe IN-Carroll IN-
951 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Carroll and
northeastern Tippecanoe Counties through 1015 PM EDT...

At 951 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Delphi, or 13 miles south of Monticello, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Carroll and
northeastern Tippecanoe Counties, including the following
locations... Camden and Flora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 8637 4053 8638 4042 8679 4064 8676
      4069 8651 4069 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 253DEG 37KT 4056 8669

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Updike

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1042 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

INZ043-044-250315-
Parke IN-Vermillion IN-
1042 PM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Parke and
southern Vermillion Counties through 1115 PM EDT...

At 1041 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Clinton, or 10 miles northeast of Paris, moving east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clinton around 1050 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Rockville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 8753 3990 8709 3987 8709 3987 8708
      3967 8703 3961 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 255DEG 38KT 3970 8754

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Updike

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