River Flood Warning 74, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1035 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1034 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

Surface observations show that the cold front has reached the
eastern edge of the forecast area. The associated line of rain has
now pushed just off to the east but light drizzle remains and is
expected to continue through much of the day. Temperatures will be
fairly stagnant through the day as the cold air settles in and
overcast skies prevent sunshine from heating the surface.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

Early this morning, a front was across the southern forecast area,
with temperatures and dewpoints generally in the 50s south of the
front. North of the front, temperatures and dewpoints in the 30s and
40s were noted. Rain covered much of the forecast area, with strong
thunderstorms near and along the front. Surface low pressure was not
far southwest of the area.

Pressure falls indicate that the surface low should move across
roughly the southern quarter of the area in the next couple of
hours, keeping the front in that vicinity. A 70kt low level jet will
continue to bring copious moisture into the area, especially south.
Stronger winds could still be mixed down in the warm sector. Thus,
feel the severe threat should continue for a couple more hours in
the far south. If cold pool processes take over though, the
strongest convection will be pushed south of the area faster than
expected.

Heavy rain will remain a threat with the high moisture levels,
especially south where training of heavier storms may occur. Farther
north, rainfall amounts won't be as high, but over an inch has
already fallen in some areas. Thus, will keep the Flood Watch going
as is.

After 12Z, the surface low will be east of the area. Enough forcing
and moisture will still be across the southeastern forecast area for
likely or higher PoPs, but elsewhere only chance PoPs will be
needed. Will have to watch the wrap around precipitation, the most
of which should be just north of the area. If it gets farther south,
higher PoPs will be needed during the morning.

Chances for precipitation will diminish through the day as forcing
exits. However, some of the hi res models are trying to generate
some isolated showers later today as colder air flows in. May add
some sprinkles to the forecast to account for this.

Temperatures will remain steady or slowly fall this afternoon with
cold advection.

Tonight into Tuesday surface high pressure will move into the area
and provide dry conditions. Some decrease in clouds will occur on
Tuesday, but still expect partly cloudy conditions. The available
sunshine will be enough to allow temperatures to get into the 40s
Tuesday, after morning lows in the 20s.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

Broad upper troughing will continue early in the extended. Southern
stream energy will allow a low pressure system to move across the
southeastern USA on Wednesday. Precipitation from this system will
remain southeast of central Indiana.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Thursday, but the front
won't have any moisture to work with and little upper support. Thus,
expect dry conditions on Thursday.

For Friday and Friday night, a sharp upper trough will create waves
of low pressure that will ride along a strong cold front. Moisture
will get pulled north into the area from these. Given the strength
of the upper trough and surface cold front as well as the moisture,
went with likely PoPs Friday afternoon and evening. Most of the
precipitation will be east of the area on Saturday.

There remains a lot of uncertainty on timing and location of the
stronger of the surface low pressures later on Friday into Friday
night. Thus, it is too early to determine if any significant snow
will fall in the area. Will have to monitor the development of this
system.

Well below normal temperatures can be expected behind the cold
front, with lows in the teens Friday night and Saturday night and
highs below freezing on Saturday.

Warmer air will slowly return into early next week as high pressure
moves east of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

IMPACTS:

-- IFR through this evening, transitioning to MVFR

-- Isolated rain showers ending late this morning

-- Occasional wind gusts this afternoon

DISCUSSION:

A front has moved through central Indiana, with all sites now with a
N to NW wind. With multiple inches of rain overnight, the near
surface is rather moist, resulting in low cloud cover. Current
ceilings are mostly IFR, although an isolated period of LIFR is
possible, especially within a rain shower.

This afternoon, ceilings should rise into MVFR criteria, with
winds gusts of around 18-22kts. Late this evening, winds gusts
will die down, and ceilings should raise to VFR conditions. .

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Update...KH
Short Term...50
Long Term...50
Aviation...Updike

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
416 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

INZ042-045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-080930-
Randolph-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-
Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Winchester, Union City, Farmland,
Parker City, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer,
Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg,
Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
416 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms remain possible until about 10 AM. Thunderstorms may
produce gusty winds and heavy rain, along with cloud to ground
lightning.

Flooding remains possible for low lying areas along with some creeks
and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There are chances for snow on Friday night. It is too soon to
determine how much snow will fall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected. Spotters are encouraged though to
report any flooding.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ021-028>031-035>041-043-044-080930-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Vermillion-Parke-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Clinton, Fairview Park,
Rockville, Montezuma, and Rosedale
416 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Flooding remains possible for low lying areas along with some creeks
and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There are chances for snow on Friday night. It is too soon to
determine how much snow will fall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated. Spotters are encouraged to
report flooding.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
724 AM EST MON MAR 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S TURTLE CREEK RESERV 39.02N 87.53W
03/07/2022                   SULLIVAN           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LATE REPORT. DEBRIS IN THE ROAD AT SR 58 AND
            CR 450S. ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURES SHOWING
            DESTROYED TRAVEL TRAILER AND A VEHICLE
            FLIPPED OVER. POSSIBLE TORNADO. WILL
            INVESTIGATE FURTHER. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EST MON MAR 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E CORTLAND            38.97N 85.93W
03/07/2022                   JACKSON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LATE REPORT. DAMAGE TO A METAL STORAGE BARN.
            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1125 AM EST MON MAR 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW TRAFALGAR          39.41N 86.16W
03/07/2022                   JOHNSON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LATE REPORT. A VAN WAS MOVED AND A TRAILER
            WAS MOVED SEVERAL HUNDRED YARDS. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&