Frost Advisory 1, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
236 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022

.Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022

A shortwave trough and cold front moving through is trending the low-
level flow weaker and more veered. Mixing today will again increase
gustiness but gradient and magnitude of winds aloft isn't as strong
as yesterday, so gusts should peak around 30 mph today at most.
Modest cold advection should hold us around 10 degrees below mid-
April climatology.

We will be on the periphery of wake surface high tonight and early
Sunday supporting light winds. Radiative conditions won't be optimal
given wind speeds and we may be on the northern periphery of cirrus.
Nevertheless, these conditions will be sufficient for around or just
below freezing temperatures for central and northern Indiana. A
Freeze Warning may be sent shortly, pending coordination with
surrounding offices. Although freezing temperature are anticipated
in Warren, Tippecanoe, Carroll, Clinton, Howard and Tipton counties,
coordination with ag extension partners indicates the growing season
hasn't progressed enough yet in these counties to warrant
frost/freeze products.

Across our southern counties, although 2-meter temperatures may be
just above freezing, conditions are marginally supportive of frost
since winds should be light enough for a near-ground layer at
freezing. Cirrus could impede this process some, so confidence in
the Vincennes/Loogootee areas is low at this time.

On Sunday, the next shortwave trough traversing the westerlies will
approach and downstream end of moisture/ascent will lead to
increasing cirrus initially with midlevel stratus deck by the end of
the day. Ascent and moisture won't yet be sufficient for rain until
very late afternoon or evening. Surface winds will continue
clockwise veering to easterly by afternoon, with weak cold or
neutral advection not supporting a warm up, and so another day of
around 10 degree negative 2m temperature anomalies are expected.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Sunday night through Monday.

Chances for rain return Sunday night into Monday as central Indiana
becomes sandwiched between two systems as a snow producing system
moves through the northern Great Lakes region and a warmer core low
moves through the Southern Gulf states.  Confidence is increasing
that central Indiana will be north of the heavier rain associated
with the Gulf system but the northern counties along the periphery a
surface wind boundary separating the two systems.  Expect that rain
amounts of around a quarter of an inch by late Monday.

In addition to the precipitation, the strong pressure gradients
associated with the system to the north will bring wind gusts of 30-
35 mph which could be higher if there are any breaks in the
precipitation during the afternoon hours and the mixing layer
deepens.  Another freeze is possible Monday night with temperatures
near freezing, but winds will remain high enough to prevent frost
formation.

Tuesday through Friday.

Colder than normal temperatures are expected for the middle of the
work week as northwesterly flow returns both at the surface and
aloft. As the mid levels dry out on Tuesday skies will begin to
clear other than some possible low clouds across the northeastern
counties where moisture advecting from Lake Michigan will keep
conditions saturated for a longer period of time.  A seasonably
strong upper level low pressure system will be moving through
Southern Canada Wednesday into Thursday which will bring another
period of gusty winds and unsettled weather Wednesday into Thursday.

Additional precipitation is possible Friday into the early weekend
but model guidance is struggling to resolve where the front
associated with how the surface front associated with where the mid-
week system settles.  Temperatures will gradually warm mid week into
the weekend with a return to 70 degree weather likely by Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022

IMPACTS:

* Light rain ending followed by a period of MVFR stratus tonight.

* Winds trending northwesterly through early morning.

* Gusts return, albeit not as strong, this afternoon.

DISCUSSION:

Gradient will lessen overnight and a cold front will move through
causing lighter winds to trend northwesterly. Rain will depart early
tonight but a band of MVFR stratus will affect most TAF sites for at
least a few hours. Deeper mixing and momentum transfer will occur
late morning/midday through late afternoon causing gusty winds,
although not as strong as previous days. Gusts to around 25 knots
may occur, especially at the warmest part of the day when mixing is
deepest.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short Term...BRB
Long Term...White
Aviation...BRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
917 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-161000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer,
Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg,
Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
917 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1215 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE BALL STATE UNIVER 40.23N 85.40W
04/15/2022  M61 MPH          DELAWARE           IN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KMIE MUNCIE.

&&

AW