Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Indianapolis, IN

015 
WGUS73 KIND 110242
FFSIND

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1042 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

INC057-110415-
/O.CON.KIND.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220911T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hamilton IN-
1042 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT SUNDAY 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...

At 1042 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain 
have fallen this evening. Additional rainfall amounts  will be light 
in the warned area as rain is diminishing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville and Westfield.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Cool Creek, White River, Cicero Creek, Stony Creek and East Fork 
  Sly Run.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 8597 4012 8588 3996 8603 3993 8614
      4000 8613

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Ryan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
650 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

H20 vapor imagery was showing an upper low spinning over
extreme southwestern Mississippi and a broad upper trough extending
from northeastern Nunavut to northeastern Utah. At the surface, high
pressure stretched from New England to the Gulf of Mexico while a
cold front extended from Quebec to northern Missouri and the Texas
panhandle. Radar was showing cells popping up and moving northeast
across northern sections and the upper Wabash Valley in an area of
moisture convergence ahead of this front. Currently, soundings were
showing a dry layer from 700-500 millibars. This was limiting
coverage. However, moisture will increase from the south ahead of
the upper low with PWATs to 1.5 to 1.8 inches by late today and this
evening. Mixed layer CAPEs have increased to 500-1000 J/kg over the
Wabash Valley early this afternoon, so although lightning detection
equipment was not detecting lightning in any of the central Indiana
cells, that could change soon.

The cold front will be dropping southeast across central
Indiana Sunday and Sunday night and interact with the deepening
moisture and limited instability and result in shower chances from
now through Sunday night. Best chances will be Sunday afternoon with
the cold front. Much drier and cooler air will filter in behind the
front over the Wabash Valley late Sunday and northeastern sections
Sunday night. This should allow the bulk of the rain to end or
diminish in coverage west to east Sunday night. Meanwhile, an upper
low will develop in the northern trough and will still be northwest
of the area Sunday night, so can't completely rule out lingering
showers toward Monday morning over northern and eastern sections.

WPC has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall through Sunday night
which looks reasonable mainly Sunday judging by the near max moving
average PWATs, synoptic forcing and potential for enhanced lift in
between an 80+ knot upper Ohio Valley jet streak placing central
Indiana in the left exit region. A few strong storms will also be
possible Sunday afternoon as the current lack of deep shear
increases to over 30s knots with the potential for near moderate
instability, especially if any breaks develop in the overcast.

With clouds and dew points increasing tonight, temperatures should
not fall below the middle 60s for overnight lows. Meanwhile,
increased convection should hamper temperatures Sunday with highs
only in the 70s. Finally, much cooler temperatures are on tap Sunday
night in the wake of the cold front with lows in the 50s and
possibly even upper 40s far northwest counties.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

* Rain chances Monday through Tuesday Morning

* Dry and warmer Tuesday afternoon through Friday

.Monday through Tuesday...

Indiana's first glimpse of fall weather starts out the work week as
an anomalously deep upper low moves directly over Northern Indiana
bringing cool and wet conditions to the region. Models depict a 560
H5 low, about 3 standard deviations below climatological norms for
this time of year, with a weak surface reflection across the
northern part of the state. Forecast soundings show the bulk of the
deep moisture ahead of the low on Sunday with dry air filtering in
aloft Monday and Tuesday; however low level moisture remains in the
lowest 1 km keeping the chance for showers through at least Tuesday
morning. While scattered showers may be present at any time as mid
level vort maxes rotate through the area, convection may be more
diurnally drive by afternoon heating and steepening low level lapse
rates Monday afternoon. Weak mid level lapse rates as seen on
forecast soundings and a possible inversion around 850 mb may limit
the coverage and intensity of any convection, even during the
afternoon. Thus keeping only chance wording for PoPs during this
time period. With drying in the mid and upper levels, CAPE almost
nonexistent, and weak shear, expect most showers to remain low
topped with little to no threat of severe weather.

Another big story Monday will be temperatures as the upper low also
brings some of the coolest air of the season to the region.
Indianapolis has not had a high temperature below 70 degrees since
May 23rd and guidance indicates high Monday may not get out of the
60s for much of Central Indiana! Much colder air advects in aloft
under the upper low with 850mb temperatures down to around 5C,
supporting afternoon highs only in the 60s. Sky coverage and showers
will also play a big role in afternoon highs as some areas may get
stuck under multiple showers while other areas may stay a few
degrees warmer without any rain. Nonetheless, it is likely going to
be the coolest day since the Spring as guidance continues to trend
cooler for Monday's temperatures.

The low departs to the northeast on Tuesday so expect another
relatively cool day with northwest flow and gradually drying
conditions. The morning likely will start off with patchy fog around
the region as the boundary layer becomes saturated and stable
overnight with light winds. The core of the cold air also moves
northeast with the low, so expect warm air advection aloft to
translate to much warmer, yet still below normal high temperatures.
Convective temperatures in the lower 70s will likely be reached
leading to an afternoon cu field and an isolated shower as low level
lapse rates steepen. While forecast soundings look better Tuesday
for showers with more instability, the best lift will be located
northeast of the region near the upper low likely limiting coverage
of any convection Tuesday afternoon. Overall, expect improving
conditions through the day with a very fall-like feel to the air.

.Wednesday through Saturday...

Longer range guidance and ensembles show strong agreement in a quick
pattern change Midweek through next weekend as ridging builds over
the Midwest with positive 500mb height anomalies and 850mb temps for
this time of year. A 588+ H5 ridge slowly progresses east while a
surface high shifts to the northeast by the end of the week
resulting in southerly flow and warm air advection returning. 850mb
temperatures quickly rebound to around 16-17C by the end of the week
supporting surface temperatures in the mid 80s. Expect a warming
trend each day through the week back to slightly above normal
temperatures with increasing humidity as well.

Overall confidence remains high in the long term forecast with wet
and cool conditions starting out the week becoming warm and dry
midweek through next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 650 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Impacts:

* Scattered convection into the evening

* VFR conditions into the early overnight then ceilings
  deteriorating to IFR at time Sunday

* Additional threats for showers and thunderstorms throughout the
  day Sunday

Discussion:

Scattered convection continues across the region early this evening
and will likely persist into the overnight as moisture advects into
the area from the southwest and an upper wave approaches. While
there have been a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and early
evening...confidence is low in a VCTS mention at any terminal with
instability diminishing after sunset. Winds should remain
predominantly from the S/SE through tonight but the presence of
multiple outflow boundaries could lead to briefly chaotic wind
directions at the terminals this evening.

Initially VFR conditions are expected but progressively deeper
moisture into the boundary layer overnight will enable ceilings to
gradually fall to MVFR levels and to under 1000ft by Sunday morning
as low pressure and a cold front pivot into the region from the
west. Model soundings show deep saturation for much of the day
Sunday with ceilings likely to hover between 800 and 1500ft all day.
As the front swings across the region in the afternoon...winds will
veer to southwest and eventually westerly by early Sunday evening.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10kts but once the front
passes...there is potential for gustier winds Sunday evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Short Term...MK
Long Term...CM
Aviation...Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
352 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-112000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer,
Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg,
Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
352 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated thunder may be embedded within showers this afternoon and
tonight. Severe weather is not expected, although lightning is a
threat with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible at times for
some or all of the region Sunday through Monday evening. Severe
weather is not expected...although a few strong storms are possible
Sunday-Sunday night. Brief heavy rain and lightning will be possible
in any thunderstorm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
546 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

INZ043-044-051-052-102215-
Clay IN-Parke IN-Vermillion IN-Vigo IN-
546 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Vigo,
northwestern Clay, southwestern Parke and southeastern Vermillion
Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clinton, or 8 miles north of Terre Haute, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clinton around 600 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 8728 3962 8750 3977 8732 3960 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 221DEG 12KT 3959 8736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Ryan