Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Lincoln, IL

307 
WWUS53 KILX 131754
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

ILC183-131815-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220613T1815Z/
Vermilion-
1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMILION COUNTY...

At 1254 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rossville, or
15 miles north of Danville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Hoopeston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 8766 4043 8779 4049 8765 4049 8753
      4030 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 228DEG 21KT 4037 8763 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

25

861 
WWUS53 KILX 131815
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
115 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

ILC183-131825-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220613T1815Z/
Vermilion-
115 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMILION COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Lincoln.

LAT...LON 4025 8766 4043 8779 4049 8765 4049 8753
      4030 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 228DEG 23KT 4045 8751 

$$

25

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

A stretch of very hot and humid weather will prevail across
central Illinois for the next few days. Expect high temperatures
to soar well into the 90s and afternoon heat index values to
climb above 105 degrees today through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

An upper level wave continues to approach from the west this
morning, with some high based showers moving into the area as
well. The warm front hasn't moved much over the last several
hours, but is inching northward. Have seen dew points in the upper
70s and low 80s across the area this morning...adding to the
extremely muggy conditions. The clouds and elevated showers will
help slow the heating today, but we'll still see a lot of highs
push well into the 90s and heat index values around 105 to 110
degrees today. Severe storms are still not out of the question
across the northern zones today, but the likelihood is low.
Vermilion County looks to have the best chance in our forecast
area to see storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

08z/3am surface analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal
boundary extending from Macomb...to Lincoln...to near Paris. A
much drier airmass across northern Illinois has been trickling
southward overnight, resulting in dewpoints dropping into the
upper 50s and lower 60s from Peoria/Bloomington northward.
Meanwhile along and south of the boundary, dewpoints are hovering
in the middle 70s. Front will gradually lift northward after
sunrise and could potentially trigger an isolated thunderstorm
this morning. All eyes will be on convective evolution further
north, as a complex of thunderstorms currently over eastern South
Dakota tracks/develops eastward into southern Wisconsin/northern
Illinois later this morning. Several CAMs suggest this activity
will turn southeastward and dive into northern/central Indiana as
a potentially severe squall line this afternoon. Model consensus
keeps the bulk of the convection N/NE of the KILX CWA: however,
think low chance PoPs are warranted along/north of
I-74...especially along/north of a Bloomington to Paris line from
midday through mid-afternoon. Given feed of extreme instability
characterized by HREF mean SBCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg, any
cells that develop along the southwest edge of the potential
convective complex could produce very large hail and damaging
wind gusts across the far NE CWA. Meanwhile further W/SW across
the remainder of the area, a very hot/humid day will unfold with
high temperatures reaching the middle to perhaps upper 90s in a
few spots. Warm/muggy conditions are expected tonight as lows only
drop into the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Upper ridging will build over the Midwest, allowing high temperatures
to reach the middle to upper 90s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Given
the extreme heat coupled with dewpoints in the 70s, corresponding
peak heat index values will exceed 105 degrees both days. As a
result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of central and
southeast Illinois through Wednesday.

After that, short-wave energy presently over British Columbia and
the Pacific Northwest will track eastward and flatten the
prevailing ridge. This will push a weakening cold front into
central Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday. Will feature low
chance PoPs at that time, followed by a return to temps in the
upper 80s and lower 90s Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

SCT-BKN cumulus had bases at 2-3k feet AGL at midday. These are
expected to rise to VFR levels and scatter out early this
afternoon. Beyond this, VFR sky expected with only high clouds.
South to southwest winds gusting around 20 kt this afternoon will
lose gusts this evening, but a southwest low level jet will
provide marginal LLWS overnight. Southwest 20+kt gusts should pick
up again after 14z/Tue.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
451 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-141000-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
451 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance for severe storms across portions of central and
east central Illinois late this morning through the afternoon,
roughly along and north of a Havana to Olney line. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main concerns.

Very hot and humid conditions are expected across central Illinois
today. Temperatures will warm well into the 90s with heat index
values topping out in the 100 to locally 115 degree range.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

High heat and humidity will continue across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday with heat index values rising into the 100 to 110 degree
range each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this morning through the
afternoon.

Deubelbeiss