Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
315 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Scattered showers and storms will be possible going into this
evening. A few of these may be strong to severe with the better
chances being south of I-72. Cooler and drier weather arrives for
the start of the new week with temperatures expected to top out in
the 70s. Shower and storm chances return late Tuesday night and
persist through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough working through the
Midwest. Surface analysis depicts a cold front stretched from
western Michigan southwestward into northern Missouri, with a
secondary weaker front/boundary situated from roughly just south of
Danville back to near Shelbyville. Dewpoints across the area remain
pretty comfortable in the 50s minus parts of eastern and southeast
Illinois where dewpoints south of the aforementioned boundary are in
the 60s.

Scattered storms are ongoing along the previously mentioned boundary
situated just south of Danville to Shelbyville as of 3 PM. Severe
weather remains possible, but it appears there may only be a short
window for organized convection to develop. The rapid refresh model
paints an axis of MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg as of 3 PM, with it
forecast to top out just shy of 1500 J/kg or so later this afternoon
or early evening. Cloud cover continues to increase from west to
east, which will work against potential instability. Shear early
this afternoon is still weak, but as an upper jet noses further east
later this afternoon/early evening, wind shear will improve. Storms
ongoing this afternoon will likely be pulsey and lack organization,
but we should start to see more sustainable updrafts by later this
afternoon as shear improves. Because of this, current thoughts place
the best severe potential between 4-8 PM south of I-72 with the main
threats being damaging wind gusts and large hail. The severe threat
should fade quickly after sunset as we lose instability.

The cold front pushes through the area tonight as high pressure
settles into the central Plains states. Overnight lows will be
cooler with values in the 50s expected. Dry and mostly quiet
conditions will be present to start the new week, though it will be
a bit on the breezy side. Forecast soundings show deep mixing up to
near 6k ft which will mix down wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph and
much drier air. Depending on where and how much rain is received
today and from previous day, there may be some concern for elevated
fire danger, especially across our northern counties where lack of
precipitation has dried fuels out. Temperatures on Monday will be
cooler than recent days, but right around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

The next chance for showers and storms look to hold off until later
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong little shortwave trough
tracks overhead. The potential for a few strong to severe storms
exists mainly south of the area overnight Tuesday where the better
instability and shear will be. Parameters improve here locally on
Wednesday, but the upper wave will be east of here by the time
that occurs. Occasional shower and storm chances linger through
the end of the week as a frontal boundary remains situated
somewhere over the area. Southwest flow sets up overhead for the
end of the week, bringing warmer and more humid air back into the
area. A stronger system will track through the upper Midwest on
Friday, sending a strong cold front through the region. The latest
guidance suggests supportive instability and shear for strong to
potentially severe storms ahead of the frontal passage. Will need
to keep an eye on this period over the next several days.
Temperatures look to cool back down behind the frontal passage for
the weekend as high pressure builds into the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

The main shower and storm activity continues to remain west and
southwest of the area this afternoon. Scattered showers will spread
into west-central Illinois early this afternoon, with most of the
storm activity looking to hold off until this evening. However,
there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the storm evolution.
Adjusted the VCTS mention at I-55 and east TAF sites to be a few
hours later, though this may need to be refined further VFR flight
rules remain predominant through the period, but MVFR conditions
will be possible within any storm. Northwest winds around 10 kts or
so will continue overnight, with gusts up to 20 kts being introduced
later Monday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...NMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>044-047>053-162000-
Cass-Christian-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-Marshall-Mason-
McLean-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-
Tazewell-Woodford-
257 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon
and evening. The threat of any severe weather should be further
south and east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Thunderstorms will be scattered across the area during the middle and
latter part of the week. At the present time, it appears that Friday
afternoon and evening would have the best chance for any strong to
severe storms.

Lingering flooding on the Illinois River at Havana should subside
late this week, though it will persist into the weekend near
Beardstown.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ045-046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-162000-
Champaign-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Moultrie-Richland-Shelby-Vermilion-
257 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon
and evening. A few of them may be strong to locally severe with
damaging winds and large hail the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Thunderstorms will be scattered across the area during the middle and
latter part of the week. At the present time, it appears that Friday
afternoon and evening would have the best chance for any strong to
severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested through around 8 pm this evening.

Deubelbeiss

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N PHILO               40.05N 88.16W
05/15/2022  M55 MPH          CHAMPAIGN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND SPEED AROUND 55 MPH FOR ABOUT
            A MINUTE ALONG HIGHWAY 130 NORTH OF PHILO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             NEWMAN                  39.80N 87.98W
05/15/2022  M0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL FOR ABOUT 10
            MINUTES 0.3 MILES SE OF NEWMAN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             5 S WILLOW HILL         38.92N 88.02W
05/15/2022  M0.50 INCH       JASPER             IL   PUBLIC

            PEA TO GRAPE HAIL NEAR STE MARIE IL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
328 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ILZ046-055-057-152115-
Douglas-Vermilion-Edgar-
328 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Edgar,
southeastern Vermilion and eastern Douglas Counties through 415 PM
CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sidell, or 17 miles southwest of Danville, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ridge Farm around 345 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Georgetown and
Westville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
east central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 8772 3959 8796 3979 8796 3980 8794
      3983 8790 3993 8780 4009 8767 3991 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 243DEG 13KT 3991 8775

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
412 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             PARIS                   39.62N 87.69W
05/15/2022  M0.75 INCH       EDGAR              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN PARIS FROM
            MULTIPLE VIEWERS.

&&

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