Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Lincoln, IL

031 
WWUS53 KILX 132247
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
547 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

ILC057-095-132315-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-220513T2315Z/
Fulton-Knox-
547 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FULTON AND KNOX COUNTIES...

At 546 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Abingdon, or 9
miles south of Galesburg, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. Landspout tornadoes could also 
         occur with these storms.

This severe storm will be near...
  Galesburg around 600 PM CDT.
  Knoxville around 605 PM CDT.
  Maquon and Gilson around 610 PM CDT.
  Williamsfield and Victoria around 630 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Snake
Den Hollow, Dahinda, Galesburg Airport, Ellisville, Delong, East
Galesburg, St. Augustine, Middle Grove and Henderson.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 40 and 65.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4062 9006 4050 9045 4105 9044 4115 9004
      4115 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 238DEG 20KT 4081 9036 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Auten

400 
WWUS53 KILX 132324
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
624 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

ILC057-095-132334-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-220513T2315Z/
Fulton-Knox-
624 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FULTON AND KNOX
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4062 9006 4050 9045 4105 9044 4115 9004
      4115 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 238DEG 20KT 4092 9013 

$$

Auten

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
305 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

A cold front will approach the area later today. Storms will
develop ahead of the front later this afternoon into evening
across west-central Illinois. A few of these storms could become
strong to severe mainly west of I-55 with damaging winds, large
hail, and heavy rainfall being the main threats. Temperatures will
remain warm for the start of the weekend, but will gradually cool
back to near normal values by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(through tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Another unseasonably warm day is ongoing out there with temperatures
as of 3 PM sitting in the upper 80s to low 90s. After a little
relief from very humid conditions the past few days, dewpoints are
back on the rise this afternoon especially along and west of I-55.
However, east of I-55 dewpoints remain much lower in the 50s.

A cold front currently stretched from central Wisconsin
southwestward into central Missouri will approach the area later
this afternoon into evening. Full sunshine and a moist airmass over
the Middle Mississippi River Valley has allowed SBCAPE to build
upwards of 2-4k J/kg in southeast Missouri and western Illinois. We
remain somewhat capped here locally early this afternoon, but mid-
level cooling will help erode this here soon. High resolution
guidance suggests most of the storm activity should enter west-
central IL sometime between 5-7 PM, though some showers have
developed in northwest IL. Weak shear should limit the longevity of
storms, with more pulse-like, multicell convection expected.
Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, though moderately steep
lapse rates will support large hail as well. Heavy rainfall is also
a concern with weak steering flow and PWATs between 1.5-1.75".

Storm activity should wane closer to midnight as it moves toward the
IL River Valley into a less favorable environment. Overnight lows
will be mild with values in the 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Upper-level flow remains weak going into the weekend with a blocking
pattern still in place. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
will be possible east of I-55 on Saturday likely firing along any
remnant outflow boundaries from this evenings convection. A subtle
shortwave trough may come into play by late morning or early
afternoon, helping aide storm development. Similar to today,
instability will be plentiful with dewpoints in the 60s. However,
wind shear will be weak leading to pulse convection. A few strong
storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall
will be the main threats.

An upper trough working into southern Canada will finally work to
break down the blocking pattern going into Sunday. A bit of energy
associated with the trough will roll through the lower Midwest on
Sunday, sending a stronger cold front through the area. Another
round of strong to severe storms appears possible east of the IL
River by the afternoon and evening hours. A slight risk remains in
place for this period.

Cooler and drier conditions set up for the start of the new week
with northwest flow aloft. Occasional chances for showers and storms
look to return midweek onward as flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Temperatures will gradually warm by the middle to end of next week,
with the CPC's 6-10 day outlook showing a 40-60% chance of warmer
than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Scattered storms become more likely west of I-55 this evening as a
cold front approaches the region. Introduced TEMPO groups at PIA and
SPI to account for thunderstorms, with less certainty in storm
activity further east. Some of the storms west of the IL River could
be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main
hazards. Winds around 10 kts or less will persist through today
before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds flip around to
the northwest by tomorrow, but will still remain light.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...NMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
319 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-142030-
Cass-Christian-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-Marshall-Mason-
McLean-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-
Tazewell-Woodford-
319 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Mississippi River
late this afternoon, then move east. Some of the storms may be
strong to locally severe, especially west of the Illinois River,
with damaging winds and large hail being the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, mainly near and
east of I-55, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The best
chances for any strong storms will be on Sunday, in areas near and
south of I-72.

Minor flooding on the Illinois River from Havana to Beardstown will
continue for several more days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening, with the most likely
time frame between 5 pm and 9 pm.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061-142030-
Champaign-Coles-Douglas-Edgar-Moultrie-Piatt-Shelby-Vermilion-
319 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move into the area after
midnight. Severe weather is not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, and again Sunday
afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may be on the strong side.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-142030-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
319 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move into the area after
midnight. Severe weather is not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, and again Sunday
afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Sunday.

Lingering flooding on the Wabash River is expected to subside on
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

NMB