Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Lincoln, IL

018 
WWUS53 KILX 190913
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
413 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

ILC169-190922-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-220919T0930Z/
Schuyler-
413 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SCHUYLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4009 9038 4012 9035 4010 9012 3995 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 296DEG 34KT 4008 9030 

$$

ILC017-125-190930-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-220919T0930Z/
Cass-Mason-
413 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES...

At 412 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Browning, or 8
miles northeast of Beardstown, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central Cass and southwestern Mason Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4009 9038 4012 9035 4010 9012 3995 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 296DEG 34KT 4008 9030 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

AAT

163 
WWUS53 KILX 190924
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
424 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

ILC017-125-190933-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-220919T0930Z/
Cass-Mason-
424 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will 
be allowed to expire. Small hail, heavy rain, and gusty winds may 
continue to occur with this storm as it moves through Cass County.

LAT...LON 4009 9038 4012 9035 4010 9012 3995 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 0923Z 305DEG 36KT 4002 9019 

$$

AAT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
319 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Once heavy rain and thunderstorms come to an end later this
morning, quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of today.
Very warm temperatures for the latter half of September are
forecast for Tuesday, with heat and humidity combining to produce
heat indices near 100 degrees. Much cooler weather is forecast for
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Thunderstorms persist over central Illinois early this morning,
with one long-lasting cluster southeast of Champaign and another
from near Beardstown to south of Springfield. With around 40-50 kt
of 0-6 km bulk shear and pockets of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE still
existing in the pre-frontal environment, many storms have become
organized with rotating updrafts. A few reports of large hail and
wind damage have been received through the event. Though radar
shows that updrafts have weakened over the past hour or so, IR
satellite shows fairly consistently cold cloud tops associated
with the activity over Morgan and Sangamon counties. Additionally,
colder cloud tops are associated with some new convective
development upstream over far southeastern Iowa. As strong
moisture-rich west-southwesterly winds continue at around 850 mb
and cells continue to develop, the potential for repeated
initiation/training and heavy rainfall accumulation will need to
be monitored. The local probability-matched mean QPF from the 00z
HREF still depicts a northwest-southeast stripe from around
Beardstown/Jacksonville, including Springfield and Taylorville.
Average amounts are in the 1-2.5 inch range, but with localized
areas capable of receiving 4-5 inches or more.

Precipitation in the above axis should wind down between around
7-10 am, with a cold front slowly moving southward throughout the
remainder of the day. Northern portions of the ILX forecast area
will reach the low to mid 80s, with far southern portions perhaps
exceeding 90 F. Winds will slowly veer to a more southeasterly
direction overnight. Thunderstorm initiation is forecast in a
west-east line across southern Minnesota late tonight in a zone
of 850 mb warm advection. Though the resulting cluster is forecast
to move southeastward, at this point it is likely to miss the ILX
forecast area to the northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The main issues for the long term forecast this morning are (1)
very warm temperatures on Tuesday and (2) cooler conditions /
timing of any precip for the remainder of the week.

Surface winds turn around to the southwest on Tuesday, advecting
warm and humid air northward associated with the 593 dm ridge over
the southern Plains. With temperatures in the low to mid 90s and
dew points in the low 70s, heat indices in the upper 90s to around
100 F should be the result. Light south winds are forecast to
persist from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with a
unusually warm morning for the latter half of September on
Wednesday.

A trough moving across Ontario on Wednesday is forecast to drive
the next cold front southward through Illinois, with this one
packing a bit more of a punch. Given spread in frontal timing,
there is an associated spread in high temperature forecasts. For
example, there is a 50% chance the high temperature in Peoria
will be between 78 and 87 F, and a 50% chance it will be outside
that range. Once the front is through, much cooler temperatures
are forecast for Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s and lows perhaps even dipping into the upper
40s. Another chance for rain comes as the next short wave trough
migrates across the Canadian prairie provinces late in the week,
with temperatures warming a bit as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Heavy rain and thunderstorms may bring occasional MVFR to IFR or
even lower conditions to TAF sites through around 10z, as well as
strong/erratic wind gusts and lightning. Repeated thunderstorms
may occur over some terminals, with SPI and DEC perhaps favored
for this within the next few hours. Once thunderstorms decrease
after 12z, a few hours of MVFR ceilings may occur before
scattering out, with VFR conditions forecast for the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AAT
SHORT TERM...AAT
LONG TERM...AAT
AVIATION...AAT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>051-191100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
303 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are likely to move into the area this evening,
persisting past midnight. The greatest risk of severe weather is west
of a Peoria to Springfield line, where hail may be larger than golf
balls and wind gusts may exceed 70 mph. A few tornadoes are possible,
especially northwest of the Illinois River. Heavy rain with
thunderstorms will track over the same areas in west central
Illinois, resulting in a threat for flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Unseasonably hot and humid weather will move into the region on
Tuesday. Peak heat indices around 100 degrees are likely Tuesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed, primarily between 8 pm and
1 am.

ILZ038-043>046-052>057-061>063-191100-
McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-
Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-
303 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move into the area
late this evening, continuing through much of the night. Damaging
wind gusts and hail are the primary hazards, though an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall rates could lead to
localized flooding west of I-57.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few thunderstorms will linger into early Monday, but they are not
expected to be severe.

Unseasonably hot and humid weather will move into the region on
Tuesday. Peak heat indices around 100 degrees are likely Tuesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely tonight, withe best chances between
11 pm and 3 am.

ILZ066>068-071>073-191100-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
303 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to move into the area toward midnight,
continuing overnight. Some of these storms may be strong to severe,
with hail and wind damage the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms will linger into Monday morning, but they are
not expected to be severe.

Unseasonably hot and humid weather will move into the region for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Peak heat indices around 100 degrees are
likely both days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, with the most likely time
frame after midnight.

Geelhart

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
152 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HAIL             1 ENE CHAMPAIGN         40.12N 88.25W
09/19/2022  M1.00 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
156 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MAHOMET                 40.19N 88.40W
09/19/2022                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON IL 47 NORTH OF MAHOMET,
            BLOCKING ROADWAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
201 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     FLOOD            1 SE CHAMPAIGN          40.10N 88.24W
09/19/2022                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            URBAN FLOODING AT KIRBY AND NEIL, UNDERPASS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
211 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S JACKSONVILLE        39.72N 90.23W
09/19/2022                   MORGAN             IL   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN AROUND
            JACKSONVILLE, OVER A FOOT IN DIAMETER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
237 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

ILZ050-051-190800-
Sangamon-Morgan-
237 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Sangamon and southeastern Morgan Counties through 300 AM CDT...

At 237 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Franklin, or 11 miles southeast of Jacksonville, moving southeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Waverly around 245 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central and west central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 9006 3953 8965 3952 9017 3959 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 314DEG 39KT 3960 9010

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
350 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW CENTRAL ILLINOIS  40.51N 88.93W
09/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&