River Flood Warning 20, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Showers will continue tonight through much of Thursday as an
upper level low lingers over the area. With colder air moving into
the area, some of these showers may mix with or change to snow at
times Thursday morning, with no accumulation expected. Expect
lows tonight in the mid and upper 30s most areas, and highs
Thursday only in the lower to mid 40s. Brisk winds from the west
to northwest will arrive tonight and continue through Thursday. A
dry and slightly warmer day is expected Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Updated PoPs to reflect higher likelihood later this evening as
another upper level shortwave rotates through the main upper level
trough, with only a small gap behind a stratiform and heavier
precipitation area moving off to the northeast associated with a
strong shortwave from this afternoon/evening. Also reduced min
temperatures tonight a degree or two given slightly cooler recent
temperature trends and model forecasts. Have also trimmed thunder
mention with all forecast instability ended for the present time
and lightning absent in detection network. The shortwave
approaching for late this evening does have some forecast
instability clipping southeast IL, and recent lightning detected
near the MO bootheel, so have kept slight chance thunder in SE
IL. Otherwise, forecast into Thursday looks good with continued
chances for light precipitation into Thursday with a mix of snow
developing overnight, consistent with upstream obs over IA this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

A weather system will continue to bring rain and isolated
thunderstorms to eastern and southeastern Illinois late this
afternoon into early this evening. This system is becoming
negatively tilted per satellite loops and this is leading to an
intensification of some of the stronger lines across parts of the
mid Miss valley. Some of the stronger storms could get into
southeast IL in a couple of hours but only last a couple of hours.
Even after the system moves east of the area this evening, areas
of rain will continue tonight. As the mid level trough rotates
through the CWA, scattered rain or snow showers will occur
tomorrow through tomorrow evening. Highs could reach into the
lower 40s, but atmosphere will be cold enough for snow showers as
well. No snow accumulation is expected. The mid level trough will
push east of the area tomorrow evening, leaving the rest of Thur
night dry.

Winds will remain gusty late this afternoon and evening, mainly
east of I-57. So have trimmed the advisory for the remainder of
the forecast and kept it going for areas along and east of a
Danville to Effingham line. Advisory criteria winds (45 mph) have
been reached at a handful of sites across the CWA and think those
higher winds right off the surface can still mix down late this
afternoon. Will reevaluate in a few hours and with winds likely
decreasing after a few hours, will likely end the advisory before
current expiration time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

After the current system, dry weather is expected Friday into
Friday evening. However, this will be short-lived as another
weather system moves across the area late Friday night through
Saturday. Then another brief dry period is expected for through
Sunday, before an active weather period returns for the first half
of next week. Temps will warm through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Numerous rain showers will continue over the central IL terminals
after 06Z, diminishing from southwest to northeast, then
additional rain and possibly a mix of snow will arrive during the
morning. Precipitation will taper off after 00Z. IFR cigs will be
the most common through 14Z, with some local LIFR, improving to
MVFR after 13Z-16Z, and ultimately VFR after 02Z-04Z. Vsbys will
be predominantly MVFR, although some local variations will be
likely. Winds WNW 14-18 kts with gusts 20-30 kts overnight,
decreasing to around 10 kts after 21Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...37
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
321 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>045-047>055-061-312030-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-De Witt-Douglas-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-
Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-
Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
321 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be likely this evening.

Minor flooding will continue along the Illinois River downstream
from Havana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Flooding will continue along the Illinois River through the middle
of next week. For the latest river levels, visit
water.weather.gov.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ046-056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-312030-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-
Lawrence-Richland-Vermilion-
321 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A few severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into
the evening, mainly for locations south of Interstate 70.
Damaging straight line wind gusts exceeding 60 mph will be the
main hazard accompanying these storms, though a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out. The threat for severe weather will end prior
to 10 pm.

Otherwise, gusty non-thunderstorm winds may gust up to 45 mph at
times through this evening before subsiding.

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Wabash River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Minor flooding will subside along the Wabash River by early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested until 10 pm this evening for
counties along and south of Interstate 70..

MJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1239 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E BLOOMINGTON         40.48N 88.96W
03/30/2022  M1.50 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RAINFALL SINCE 10 AM TODAY.

&&

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