Flood Watch 4, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
101 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Unsettled weather will continue across central Illinois through
Friday. A couple rounds of thunderstorms will occur. While not all
locations will pick up beneficial rainfall, some spots along and
south of a Rushville...to Springfield...to Mattoon line could see
heavy rain and localized flash flooding. After that, cooler and
drier conditions will be on tap for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

A stationary frontal boundary extending from central Missouri
southeastward across southern Illinois will serve as the focus
for two rounds of convection over the next 24 hours.

The first round is currently ongoing...as evidenced by 1545z/1045am
radar imagery showing thunderstorms with torrential rain across
eastern Sangamon County into western Christian County. These cells
will continue to track E/SE and will likely maintain their
current strength or even intensify early this afternoon as they
cross I-57 and encounter a more unstable airmass poised just to
the south. Based on current radar trends and latest RAP/HRRR data,
it appears areas along/east of I-57 stand the best chance of
seeing scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon as the
current storm cluster exits the KILX CWA into Indiana. Meanwhile
further west, trailing stratiform rain with embedded thunder will
gradually diminish, but will leave behind a stable airmass
unlikely to support additional development later today.

Round two will occur later tonight as low pressure tracks along
the frontal boundary and a nocturnal jet enhances
lift/instability. A threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding will develop, although the exact location remains in
question. Current indications suggest along/south of a
Rushville...to Springfield...to Mattoon line, but will wait for
further model guidance before making the final call.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Surface analysis is a little messy this morning, but it appears that
the west to east quasi-stationary frontal boundary is positioned
from roughly Kirksville, MO to Evansville, IN as of 2 AM. Scattered
showers and storms coincide with this boundary, which is primarily
being fed by a 35 kt LLJ that stretches from the southern Plains
into northern Missouri. Heavy rainfall is possible in spots with the
storms moving ESE or parallel to the boundary. The SPC HREF LPMM has
localized spots of 2-3"+ over parts of northern Missouri into
western IL through about midday today, which isn't surprising with
PWATs of 2-2.5" and warm cloud depths between 4-4.5 km. Although the
highest amounts look to stay just west of our area, we will need to
keep an eye on the heaviest storms that train over the same areas,
especially where heavy rains fell in southern Sangamon and Christian
counties yesterday evening. Not expecting much in the way of severe
weather with this round as shear is weak, though a few of these
storms may be capable of producing gusty winds at times.

The frontal boundary looks to slowly lift northward later this
morning into afternoon as an upper wave migrates from the central
Plains toward Iowa throughout the day. Shower and storm activity
should wane some with the loss of the LLJ later this morning, but a
few subtle waves will likely support additional thunderstorm
clusters to migrate along the front into early afternoon. Better
chances for showers and storms return later tonight into Friday
morning as a thunderstorm complex associated with the
aforementioned upper shortwave moving into Iowa approaches the
area. Slightly better shear and suitable instability may support a
few strong to marginally severe storms with this system capable
of strong wind gusts. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with
PWATs remaining climatologically high for this time of the year.
Most guidance suggests the highest amounts will fall somewhere
from a Quincy to Mattoon line. A Flash Flood Watch may need to be
considered for some of these counties ahead of tonight's round of
storms, especially if heavy rain occurs from convection this
morning/afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

The frontal boundary sags further south on Friday, keeping shower
and storm activity possible at times. Temperatures will be
seasonable once again, though dewpoints will keep things feeling
uncomfortable. Surface high pressure works into the Great Lakes
Region going into the weekend, acting to push the front south of the
area and putting an end to precipitation. East-northeast flow sets
up this weekend on the south side of the high, bringing the return
of 60s dewpoints on Saturday and 50s by Sunday. The weather looks
pretty benign and seasonable through the weekend and into early next
week with small precipitation chances possibly creeping back in by
Tuesday with a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

1750z/1250pm radar imagery shows initial band of convection along
a KBMI to KIH2 line. Have maintained thunder mention at KBMI/KDEC
through 19z and at KCMI through 20z. Once the storms depart, dry
conditions are expected at the terminals through the remainder of
the afternoon into the evening. The next round of convection will
develop across northern Missouri later this evening, then will
spread eastward into central Illinois overnight. Exact placement
of the strongest storms still remains in question: however, CAMs
are beginning to suggest a KUIN to KSPI to KDEC axis. As such,
have introduced thunder and reduced visbys to 2-3 miles at
KSPI/KDEC between 06z and 15z as one or more clusters of storms
track across that area. Further north, have not hit visbys as hard
as much of the convection may remain south of the I-72 TAF sites.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barnes
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-053-055-057-081100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-
Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-Douglas-Edgar-
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A lull in rain chances is expected until later tonight, when another
round of showers and thunderstorms arrives. Severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning, then will
tend to diminish by afternoon. While widespread severe weather is not
expected, a few of the storms could potentially produce damaging wind
gusts and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ040-047>052-054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073-081100-
Schuyler-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Moultrie-Coles-
Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-
Lawrence-
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

a few of the cells could produce gusty winds, hail, and torrential
downpours.

After a lull in rain chances from mid-afternoon through this
evening, another round of storms will arrive late tonight into
Friday morning. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning will be the
main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning. While widespread
severe weather is not expected, a few of the storms could
potentially produce damaging wind gusts and hail. The primary
threat, however, will be heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Barnes/AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
112 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CAPITAL AIRPORT         39.84N 89.68W
07/07/2022  M1.18 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            RAINFALL SINCE 6 AM.

1255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
07/07/2022  M1.14 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

            RAINFALL SINCE 9 AM.

&&

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