Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Lincoln, IL

902 
WGUS73 KILX 090320
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1020 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

ILC033-079-090330-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-220809T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford IL-Jasper IL-
1020 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CRAWFORD AND EASTERN JASPER 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for portions of 
central Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

LAT...LON 3916 8763 3915 8763 3916 8764 3914 8766
      3912 8763 3911 8765 3910 8762 3909 8762
      3906 8757 3900 8758 3899 8756 3899 8758
      3896 8751 3890 8752 3889 8754 3885 8754
      3886 8800 3917 8801

$$

25

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
844 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of east
central and southeast IL tonight, with flash flooding the main
concern. Rain will taper off across the area late tonight and
Tuesday, with cooler temperatures expected for Tuesday. Highs for
the rest of the week are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid
80s across central Illinois.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

At 8 pm a cold front was analyzed from Taylorville to Danville,
and was moving southeast near 15 mph. The airmass ahead of the
front is moisture- laded, reflected by PWAT values near 2.2" based
on latest mesoanalysis. This coupled with with MLCAPEs over 2000
J/kg favors efficient warm rain processes. Vertical shear is very
weak, resulting in unorganized storms and slow storm motions.
Recent one hour rainfall rates near the I-70 corridor have been
estimated near 2". Given the favorable environment for heavy rain,
flash flooding is the primary concern tonight and the region is
captured by the Flash Flood Watch in effect until 4 am.

Farther north, a few post frontal showers are possible this
evening, with the overnight hours dominated by low and mid level
clouds. Light north flow will bring lower dew points south
gradually, allowing lows to drop to the low/mid 60s for northern
parts of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Currently, an upper wave is moving east through Ontario and a
surface cold front is draped from Chicago to just east of Peoria.
This front will move southeast tonight, helping fire off some
thunderstorms across the area. Originally, was thinking storms
would fire between Peoria and Bloomington before 3 PM, but the
latest mesoanalysis is indicating this might be hard to do. So,
it may wait until it pushes a little further east. Still, there
are a few cells that have initiated in the southeastern zones
ahead of the front in ~3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep shear continues
to look limited, so severe storms will be hard to come by.
However, precipitable water values around 2 inches and a slow
moving forcing mechanism may combine to produce some training
thunderstorms today. Have issued a flash flood watch through 4 AM
for the southern zones, primarily south of I-72 where the HREF
continues to point towards an elevated excessive rainfall
potential in the LPMM product.

Precipitation chances look to continue late tonight and into
early tomorrow in the vicinity of the front. Skies will be cloudy
in most areas to start, but give way to some sun later tomorrow
starting in the NW with considerably cooler air in place area-
wide.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

In the long term, we'll see a central U.S. ridge and eastern U.S.
trough with IL right in between. The influence of the trough and
cooler surface high will dominate our area, keeping temperatures
slightly below average and conditions on the drier side. There is
a hint of precipitation chances for Thu and Sun/Mon. But chances
are relatively low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Challenging aviation forecast over the next 12-18 hours with TSRA
and IFR ceilings likely at some terminals. A cold front stretched
from KSPI-KTIP at 23z and was pressing southeast at 12 kt. Models
are in good agreement that convection will increase along the
boundary this evening and persist overnight with KDEC-KCMI on the
northern edge of the active weather, and this is where tempo
groups for TSRA are included. Confidence is low on the ending time
of precip behind the front, and have stretched VCSH to 12z at
KDEC-KCMI. The other main issue is low ceilings behind the cold
front, with MVFR currently observed at KPIA-KBMI. Short range
guidance is in good agreement that ceilings will lower to IFR at
KSPI-KDEC-KCMI for several hours tonight, with slow improvement
from the north after daybreak. Lower confidence on scattering of
the lower ceilings but model consensus around 16-18z is forecast.
Aside from brief winds over 10 kt immediately behind the front,
winds will be light through the period, veering northwest to
northeast.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

UPDATE...25
SYNOPSIS...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-092045-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Macon-
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and storms are possible near and east of the I-55
corridor through this evening. The main hazards with any storms are
lightning and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-092045-
Christian-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and storms are expected through tonight. Locally heavy rain
and flash flooding is possible, especially where storms repeat over
the same areas. A Flood Watch is in effect through late tonight. A
few storms may also become strong and produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional showers and storms are possible at times through Tuesday
night. The probability for severe weather is low, although locally
heavy rain will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

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