Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
821 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions persist this evening ahead of a weak cold
front. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and evening ahead of the cold front with some strong storms
possible. Hot and dry weather returns for the second half of the
work week before rain chances return this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Strong instability with ML CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg has
developed in the warm airmass late afternoon into early evening.
A weak CAP and lack of forcing has inhibited convective thru
most of the day. Main mid level short wave is passing through
the Great Lakes. As mid level height falls push across the area
and a weak region of pre-frontal confluence drops across the
area expect widely scattered to scattered storms to develop. A
few of the storms could support strong to damaging wind gusts
thru the evening. The best chance for storms will be across
Central Ohio thru about 10 pm. The storms threat ends by
midnight tonight after the weak front pushes thru the area.

With the loss of heating heat indices will beginning to drop
below 100. Therefore, the heat advisory has been allowed to
expire. Although conditions will slowly improve, hot and muggy
conditions will persist thru most of the evening.

Although the weak front moves thru the area temperatures don't
drop much behind the boundary with winds shifting toward
westerly. Forecast lows are in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The Ohio Valley will be in between weather systems for Thursday and
Thursday night. Low pressure remains off in eastern Canada and
high pressure stays anchored off the southeast coast. Hot dry
conditions persist. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s and
forecast lows are in the upper 60s under partly cloudy skies.
Westerly winds around 10-15 mph on Thursday relax to around 5
knots out of the southwest Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sub tropical ridge to extend from the Southern Plains across the
Gulf states with a west-northwest flow across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes. This will act to keep the active MCS track a bit north
of the area at the end of the week. Expect above normal temperatures
with highs in the upper to lower 90s on Friday.

A weak embedded mid level shortwave may lead to a few showers or
thunderstorms across the far north Saturday. Confidence is low on
this precipitation potential Saturday with the most favored chance
north of ILN/s area. Otherwise...expect hot and dry conditions with
highs of 90 to 95 Saturday.

Mid level trough to settle south into the Great Lakes late this
weekend into early next week. This will allow a frontal system to
drop south and stall out across the area. Precipitation chances will
begin to increase Sunday -- as the front slips south into the area.
With the front stalling across the Ohio Valley, this will keep a
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast -- with the best chance
across the south Monday and Tuesday. On the warm side of the front,
highs to range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s south
Sunday. Temperatures to drop back closer to normal with highs Monday
and Tuesday ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.

With the westerlies settling south into the Ohio Valley, models
indicating the development of a surface wave along this boundary.
Expected model solution differences on strength, timing and
location exist at this time frame but this low should enhance shower
and thunderstorm chances Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong instability with ML CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg has
developed in the warm airmass this afternoon. A weak CAP and
lack of forcing has inhibited convective development. As a weak
region of pre-frontal confluence pushes across the TAFs early
this evening expect widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms
to develop. A few of the storms could support strong wind gusts.
Also, a brief reduction to IFR conditions are possible in a
storm. Due to limited coverage of storms have only mentioned
VCTS at this time.

Weak front pushes east across the TAF sites later this evening
and shower/storm chances end behind the front. VFR conditions
to persist overnight into Thursday. The exception is KLUK
valley where fog is possible toward sunrise.

Southwesterly winds around 10 kts shift to westerly after FROPA
tonight and relax to 5-10 knots through 1800z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday into Sunday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
808 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-052>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-220015-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
808 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening. A few of the
stronger storms will have the potential to produce strong to damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-220015-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-
808 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1111 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

OHZ064-065-210345-
Fairfield OH-Pickaway OH-
1111 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FAIRFIELD AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKAWAY COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...

At 1111 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Baltimore,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Reynoldsburg, Pickerington, Circleville, Canal Winchester,
Ashville, Baltimore, Buckeye Lake, Bremen, Millersport,
Pleasantville, Fairfield Beach, Hide-A-Way Hills, Royalton,
Lithopolis, Amanda, Thurston, Carroll, Rushville and West Rushville.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 112 and 113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3967 8238 3962 8299 3980 8291 3980 8283
      3982 8282 3982 8280 3991 8280 3991 8281
      3994 8281 3993 8251 3993 8246 3984 8247
      3983 8240 3975 8240 3974 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 277DEG 28KT 3985 8265

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1125 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

OHZ073-080>082-210400-
Pike OH-Highland OH-Adams OH-Ross OH-
1125 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ADAMS,
NORTHWESTERN PIKE, HIGHLAND AND WESTERN ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1125 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Greenfield to 7 miles north of Sardinia, moving east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Hillsboro, Greenfield, Marshall, Bainbridge, Pike Lake,
Kincaid Springs, Belfast, Rocky Fork Point, Highland Holiday,
Cynthiana, North Folk Village, New Market, Frankfort, South Salem,
Sinking Spring, Danville in Highland County, May Hill, Austin and
Knockemstiff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3911 8315 3899 8340 3908 8386 3938 8342
      3938 8337 3946 8330 3944 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 276DEG 29KT 3936 8336 3911 8376

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Hatzos

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1129 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW NEWARK            40.07N 82.41W
07/20/2022                   LICKING            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HUDSON AVE BETWEEN OAK ST AND ST CLAIR ST

&&

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1150 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

OHZ065-074-210415-
Fairfield OH-Hocking OH-
1150 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FAIRFIELD AND CENTRAL HOCKING COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM EDT...

At 1150 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hide-A-Way
Hills, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Logan, Nelsonville, Bremen, Hide-A-Way Hills, Murray City,
Sugar Grove, Rushville, West Rushville, Hideaway Hills, Haydenville,
Lake Logan State Park, Clearport, North Berne, Enterprise, Union
Furnace, Rockbridge, Oreville and Carbon Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 8217 3947 8228 3944 8228 3941 8230
      3959 8275 3980 8257 3976 8240 3974 8240
      3974 8237 3960 8238 3959 8226 3956 8226
      3956 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 284DEG 22KT 3965 8251

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1202 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

OHZ073-210430-
Ross OH-
1202 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ROSS
COUNTY THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

At 1202 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Chillicothe,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Londonderry, Massieville, Mooresville, Scioto Trail
State Park and Richmond Dale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 8277 3917 8283 3921 8310 3939 8295
      3937 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 275DEG 26KT 3929 8292

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1221 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

OHZ082-210445-
Pike OH-
1221 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF PIKE COUNTY THROUGH
1245 AM EDT...

At 1221 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Piketon,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Piketon, Beaver, Pike County Airport, Elm Grove, Omega,
Buchanan, Givens, Ladd, Linn, Lake White, Idaho, Germany and
Stockdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 8281 3898 8321 3919 8313 3918 8289
      3917 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 280DEG 36KT 3907 8306

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Hatzos