Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
342 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley through this
evening, promoting showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure
will gradually build in late Thursday and Thursday night.
Another disturbance will bring unsettled conditions late Friday
into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across the Tri-State
area near a northward advancing warm front, and also instigated
from an eastward moving MCV. Initial scattered convection may
be discrete/supercellular in nature, but as a
shortwave/deepening low approaches from the west later this
afternoon and evening, more widespread convection is expected
and convection may eventually take on more of a linear mode.

Expect a tight gradient of CAPE as the warm front moves to the
north, but sufficient instability to support organized and
possibly severe convection looks to move northward into much of
the CWA over the next several hours. Wind fields and shear look
pretty good too, and therefore there is the risk for all severe
hazards into this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the
primary threats, however with the warm front and available
shear, rotating storms and isolated tornadoes will be possible.
In addition, heavy rainfall will occur in the strongest storms
and those areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
and/or training could wind up with localized flash flooding.

As the low and shortwave move east across Ohio, convection will
push east with it and end from west to east this evening,
although lingering low level moisture will likely produce cloudy
skies for the overnight. Lows will drop into the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow will be in place during the day on Thursday.
With lingering low level moisture, mostly cloudy skies will
persist through much of the day. Can't even rule out a few
sprinkles or very light showers, particularly over central Ohio.
High temperatures will only rise into the lower to mid 70s over
most of the CWA.

High pressure builds in for Thursday night, allowing for
partial clearing and lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As has been advertised, the long wave pattern across the CONUS will
undergo some amplification as we head into the upcoming weekend.
Another embedded s/wv in the flow will help carve out a mid level
trough over the Great Lakes. Will continue with a threat for showers
along with a low chance of thunder Friday/Friday night. Clouds and
pcpn will keep high temperatures on Friday below normal in the lower
to mid 70s.

For Saturday, the s/wv energy will departing, so other than some
lingering showers east in the morning, skies should eventually
become partly cloudy. The cool pattern will continue with highs
again in the lower to mid 70s.

By Sunday, the mid level trough will begin to shift a little more to
the east. However, a weak frontal boundary passing across the Great
Lakes may bring a low chance for a shower/storm to the north,
otherwise skies will be partly cloudy. Temperatures will begin to
modify with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Long range models indicate that a mid level ridge will build north
and east into the Ohio Valley by next week. This will be marked by
an advancing warm front Monday night into Tuesday. Southerly flow
will bring more humid conditions into the area. And with rising
geopotential heights, temperatures will further warm. There will
also be a chance of showers/storms with the warm front, then low
chances of showers/storms in the hot and humid warm sector. Highs in
the mid/upper 80s on Monday will warm into the lower 90s by
Tuesday/Wednesday. By Tuesday/Wednesday, the heat and humidity could
boost heat index values into the 95 to 100 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect showers and thunderstorms to affect area terminals later
this afternoon into the early evening. Activity may initially
fire near a northward moving warm front, then additional
activity associated with low pressure and a mid level
disturbance will move from west to east across the area. Tried
to pinpoint the most likely timing of thunderstorms with MVFR
conditions at all terminals. Amendments to refine timing and/or
include strong winds gusts and lower visibilities will likely
become necessary later this afternoon. As low pressure moves
east later this evening, convection will end and winds shift to
the northwest, but low level moisture lingering is likely to
result in a stratus deck of clouds with prevailing MVFR to IFR
conditions. MVFR cigs may linger well into the morning on
Thursday before improving.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Friday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...BPP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1127 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-091530-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1127 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon
and evening. Some of the storms will be severe, producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. In
addition, heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding. The
most likely time for severe weather looks to be from 3pm to 11pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE COVINGTON          39.05N 84.46W
06/08/2022                   CAMPBELL           KY   PUBLIC

            OBSERVER WATCHED TREES SNAPPED IN 275/471 AREA. WINDS
            PUSHED CARS INTO OTHER LANES, CAUSING ACCIDENTS.

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILDER                  39.04N 84.48W
06/08/2022                   CAMPBELL           KY   PUBLIC

            PHOTOS OF TREES SNAPPED POSTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JEG