Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Episodes of showers and storms are expected through tonight,
lingering into the day on Tuesday before drier conditions return
Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Another chances for
showers and storms arrives Wednesday into Wednesday night, with
slightly cooler air building into the region late in the
workweek into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Multiple clusters of showers and storms continue to progress to
the NE through the region, including near the I-71 corridor this
afternoon, before more widespread activity arrives this evening
through at least the first part of the overnight period. These
storms have exhibited some episodic organization, with some
fairly consistent bowing structures along the LL bulk shear
vector. This will continue to promote a translation of strong
winds down to the ground with the stronger cores, even in the
absence of better LL/BL thermodynamic conditions, and especially
in areas that remain rather "untouched" by previous convection.
Any storm structure/complex exhibiting a bowing structure, with
an apex moving approximately SW to NE, will be carefully
watched for enhancements/surges of wind as this would align
itself more perpendicularly to the LL shear vector oriented at
about 230 degrees at 30kts or so. And the LL shear will only
increase in magnitude as we progress deeper into the evening
with the approach of the main LL low center, but that will
hopefully be offset from some LL stabilization efforts (with
slightly more meager LL lapse rates) in the wake of repeated
rounds of convection this afternoon through early evening.

The better forcing and widespread lift arrives this evening into
the overnight, with a H8 LLJ nudging NNE into the southern OH
Vly. This will allow for a blossoming of convection even beyond
sunset with the increase in mass convergence amidst an amply
moist environment as the feature works ENE through the ILN FA
overnight. While the severe threat is likely to become more
limited very late this evening into tonight as the
thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly unfavorable, the
increase in LL wind fields will promote maintenance of
convection well through the night, with on and off rumbles of
thunder possible just about anywhere through tonight.

Activity will taper off from W to E late tonight into the
predawn hours on Tuesday, still lingering in central/south-
central OH for the morning commute. Lows tonight will bottom
out in a muggy fashion in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Widespread SHRA/TSRA will be exiting the ILN FA after sunrise,
with some trailing ISO activity in the warm sector behind the
activity as the front will still be positioned just N of the
immediate ILN FA. Will see this front slowly drift south through
the local area through the daytime period, with renewed
convection expected along the trailing LL convergent axis by the
afternoon into early evening. Expect this initial redevelopment
to be focused near, and approximately parallel to, the I-70
corridor before shifting S through the mid/late afternoon closer
to the OH Rvr by the evening. Have therefore maintained chance
PoPs through the daytime period from N to S before drier
conditions return area-wide from the N for Tuesday night.

Temps on Tuesday will be tricky as there will be quite a bit of
cloud cover through the first part of the day before it slowly
lifts/scatters. There may be a quick rally, however, with
early/mid afternoon sunshine before a thin corridor of renewed
SHRA/TSRA activity shifts S late in the day immediately ahead of
or along the front. Highs should generally range from the upper
70s into lower 80s from N to S.

Lows Tuesday night drop into the mid 50s in the N to mid 60s S
of the OH Rvr.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stalled front is likely to be somewhere south of I-70 on
Wednesday. Whether the front is located in Ohio or Kentucky is yet
to be determined. Either way, a chance of showers and thunderstorms
remains in the forecast to start the day. Probabilities increase as
you go south of I-70 towards locations more likely to be near or
south of the stalled front. For the second half Wednesday and
Wednesday night, the chance of showers/storms increases everywhere
in response to surface cyclogenesis overhead east of an approaching
upper level shortwave. Forecast highs on Wednesday are near 80 and
forecast lows Wednesday night range from the middle 50s to low 60s.

High pressure builds in behind the front for Thursday and Thursday
night bringing low to no chances for precipitation and near/slightly
below average temperatures.

Surface high pressure quickly shifts east on Friday while broad
upper level troughing remains overhead. Broad upper level troughing
will leave open the possibility of embedded disturbances leading to
periodic rain chances later Friday into Saturday. Precipitation
chances may then go down for the second half of the weekend into the
start of next week with high pressure in place.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be several rounds of SHRA/TSRA to contend with
through the majority of the TAF period, with the most widespread
activity expected from 00z through 12z Tuesday before additional
ISO activity develops again just beyond 18z Tuesday. The main
item of interest will be the gusty winds and the sudden reductions
in VSBYs, which will be handled mainly with amendments based on
radar trends. However, many of the local sites will probably
trend toward prevailing MVFR VSBYs with the nearly continuous
SHRA/TSRA activity expected this evening through at least the
first half of the TAF period, especially for southern sites of
KCVG/KLUK/KILN.

Winds will generally be out of the SSW at 10-12kts, with gusts
20-25kts at times, even outside of SHRA/TSRA activity. Winds
will subside overnight once the mixing relaxes and will go more
out of the WSW beyond daybreak Tuesday at around 10kts or less.

CIGs will gradually trend from VFR to MVFR late this evening,
and eventually even IFR toward/beyond 06z from W to E with the
better profile saturation. These borderline MVFR/IFR CIGs will
lift rather quickly toward/beyond 15z, scattering out to VFR
toward the end of the period. The MVFR VSBYs should also improve
around daybreak and beyond.

OUTLOOK...Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
435 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-070845-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
435 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers with a few storms are likely this afternoon, continuing
through the night. A few strong to severe storms will be possible,
with strong to damaging wind being the primary threat. Some locally
heavy rainfall is also possible during the day, evolving into a more
widespread moderate to sometimes heavy rain overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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