Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
304 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area this evening through the
overnight bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms until
Thursday morning. The cold front pushes south of the area Thursday
afternoon allowing drier, more mild air, into the region for the end
of the week. The next chance for rain will then arrive late Sunday
into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will continue to approach the area from the northwest
late this afternoon into the evening. Hot and humid air remains in
place ahead of the front characterized by moderate instability
(MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) and large amounts of DCAPE (1000+ J/kg).
Damaging winds are the main threat associated with any storms in the
unstable airmass this afternoon due to strong downdraft potential in
the high DCAPE environment. Storm organization is likely to be
single cellular to multicellular with fairly weak (25 knots or less)
boundary parallel southwesterly shear in place. Locally heavy
rainfall amounts are possible in areas that see repeated storms.

By late this evening into the overnight, storm strength and
downdraft potential will likely start to decrease with the loss of
diurnal instability and decreasing DCAPE. However, storm coverage
may remain fairly high since the area will still be south of the
cold front and disturbances keep swinging through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front mentioned in the Near Term will likely still be
lingering somewhere between I-70 and the Ohio River Thursday morning.
The chance for showers and some weak storms remains across these
locations south of the front for the first half of the day until the
front pushes south later in the morning. Northwesterly flow and
upper level troughing is finally expected to overspread the entire
area by Thursday afternoon allowing for drier, more mild air to
filter in. Forecast highs are cooler north of I-70 (lower 70s) where
the cold arrives early and warmer by the Ohio River (middle 70s)
which will initially be south of the front.

High pressure builds in behind the cold front on Thursday night
brining cool, dry, northwesterly flow. Lows will be in the lower 50s
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tranquil weather conditions are on tap for the region for the start
of the long term period as sfc high pressure settles into the OH Vly
in the post-frontal environment Friday through Saturday. This will
be accompanied by unseasonably dry air, allowing for below normal
temps at night and near normal temps during the daytime both Friday
and Saturday. Skies will be mostly clear during this period, with a
bit more clouds filtering in late Saturday afternoon in the northern
OH Vly as a disturbances passes through the Great Lakes region into
Saturday night. Highs in the mid/upper 70s to around 80F are
expected both Friday and Saturday.

The pattern turns a bit more active as we progress into the latter
part of the weekend through early next week as the NW flow aloft
becomes more quasi-zonal, with one or more disturbances pivoting
around the southern periphery of the broader midlevel low across the
upper Midwest. This quasi-zonal flow will persist through midweek,
with several disturbances ejecting E from the central plains to the
OH Vly from Monday through Wednesday. The details of this pattern
are not likely to come into focus for several days as guidance can
struggle with these types of patterns in which weakly convectively-
enhanced disturbances translate through a region with an oscillating
quasi-zonal LL thermal/moisture boundary. What does seem a bit more
certain is the potential for one or more somewhat organized
shower/storm chances during this period in an environment that will
episodically be augmented by convection. Have therefore broad-
brushed PoPs, especially late Monday through the end of the long
term period, with slightly higher PoPs included in the fcst for
Monday as the front pushes into the region. The timing and placement
of the various features that will come into play from Monday through
Wednesday are still very much in question, but the pattern will be
watched carefully in the coming days.

Above normal temps and moisture will settle into the region from
Sunday through the end of the long term period, with highs in the
lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR cumulus will continue increasing in coverage as a cold front
approaches from the northwest today. Cumulus is eventually expected
to grow into showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Best storm coverage this afternoon is forecast to be around
KDAY where VCTS has been included at 2100z. Shower and storm
activity is then expected to slowly sag southeast overnight
eventually impacting all the TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are moderately
likely to accompany the showers and storms overnight into the
morning.

Southwesterly winds around 10 knots persist this afternoon ahead of
the cold front sinking southward. Winds veer through the TAF period
eventually switching to northwesterly after FROPA Thursday
morning.

OUTLOOK... No significant weather expected beyond today/tonight.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Campbell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
307 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-021915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
307 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms forming ahead of a cold front may reach severe limits
this evening. Damaging winds are the main threat, with large hail
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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