Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
331 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low keeps the pattern unsettled through Friday, with
periods of showers and thunderstorms. The upper low begins to
push east of our region on Saturday, with gradual clearing
occurring throughout the day as high pressure builds in. The
forecast trends drier the remainder of the weekend, with a
gradual warming trend expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A slow, eastward propagating upper low will provide broad ascent
throughout the Midwest region today. With the upper low
continuing to approach our fa, slight improvements to the
overall forcing will occur.

Radar imagery at 3:30 PM shows a complex of showers stretching
from Auglaize/Hardin county down through Pendleton/Bracken in
northern KY. A few lightning strikes have been observed in
west- central OH, but instability continues to remain limited.
A few strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph have been observed in this
line as it moved through the Tristate earlier this afternoon,
but the severe threat has been minimal thus far.

It still remains that the best chance for severe weather
potential will be ahead of an occluded front that begins to
approach our western counties near the Tristate early this
evening. A complex of storms in west-central KY oriented in a
N-S line will move northeastward this evening and offer the
best chance at some strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail
seems to be more of a limited threat given the highly saturated
column of air aloft and thus providing more moist adiabatic
lapse rates. Straight-line winds remain the primary severe
threat, with another mention for a low end (but non-zero) chance
for tornadoes given the favorable rotational shear in the
lowest levels. Some rotation was observed with the line moving
through the Tristate earlier this afternoon, so this will be
something to closely monitor through the evening given the
veering profile in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Severe
storm potential should diminish by about 9-10PM. However, we
continue to mention the potential for some localized flooding
given the south-north movement of showers/storms that will allow
training to occur. Most of the heavier showers expected to
diminish by about midnight, but stay weather aware for locations
that may have received abundant rainfall amounts if traveling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Hi-res models suggest a complex of showers moving in towards the
Tristate Friday morning around sunrise. As we progress into the
late morning/early afternoon, coverage in these showers is
expected to increase as the upper low becomes positioned above
us. However, these showers remain isolated to scattered given
the broad (and therefore unorganized) ascent that's occurring.
Still have kept a mention for thunder as some instability will
still be present. Decided to slightly lower PoPs into the high-
end chance range (~70%) as pcpn coverage will be a bit more
limited.

Lack of sunshine expected throughout the day as the troposphere
continues to remain very saturated, limiting instability. PWATs
gradually decrease throughout the day, but there still could be
some locally heavy showers that develop. Additionally, while
there is a Marginal Risk for severe weather, instability will
once again be one of the primary limiting factors. Surface
temperatures will struggle to breach 70 degrees, especially in
counties west of I-75. Additionally, dewpoints will trend a few
degrees lower that day, with sub-60 dewpoint values expected by
the mid-afternoon. Will continue to monitor latest model
trends, but not overly confidence on the severe threat for the
day.

PoPs gradually taper off overnight Friday from west to east as
the upper low finally shifts east of our counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will be characterized by a transition from below normal
temperatures under a departing shortwave trough /Saturday/ to much
above normal temperatures for at least the first half of next week.
It will be a notably drier and less stormy pattern than previous
weeks as well.  A cold front will settle through the Ohio Valley in
some capacity later in the work week as troughing and cooler
temperatures take hold for next weekend.

In the details...shortwave trough from departing closed low from
today will be drifting east of the local area.  Clouds likely hang
tough through the first half of Saturday at least - and may hang on
much of the day. Cool temperatures aloft will likely keep highs only
in the low to mid 70s.

High pressure builds in underneath building upper ridge Sunday
through Tuesday. 500mb height anomalies of 1.5 sigma indicate the
strength of the ridge aloft, and with high pressure at the surface
drifting southeast and the local area getting into return flow,
temperatures will warm quickly into the 80s under mostly sunny skies
for Sunday, and may likely push into the low 90s in a few heat prone
areas on Tuesday/Wednesday as the ridge continues to gain strength.

Uncertainty increases considerably into Thursday as ridging begins
to break down with slow evolution of longwave trough by next
weekend. A cold frontal passage will likely occur in the Wed/Thur
time frame as this occurs, but the speed/strength of the front are
very much in question.  With this front will be a threat for showers
and storms, but the forecast at this time range is quite broad and
only indicating low-moderate chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms expected
through the first half of the period. Thunder activity is
currently lacking in these showers, but the potential will
increase by the late afternoon/evening time frame for observing
thunder as instability increases.

Initial line of showers with some stronger wind gusts embedded
in them will impact KCVG/KLUK near the start of the taf period,
which will translate eastward. KDAY likely to be impacted by
these showers shortly after 18z as well. Elsewhere, a window of
mostly dry conditions expected, with isolated to scattered
showers/storms possible through the late afternoon. Models then
seem to suggest the potential for another round of
showers/storms moving northeastward early this evening, first
impacting KCVG/KLUK and spreading further east. Have included a
TSRA mention in a TEMPO group during the time frame this is
expected. Heavy rain, reduced vsbys (likely IFR), gusty winds
and even small small hail are all possible. Will monitor the
need for amendments as we get closer to this period.

Once the line moves through, a several hour period of SHRA
still expected into the early overnight hours, weakening in
intensity over time. Thunder mention removed during this period
as instability wanes.

There does appear to be a pretty good signal for MVFR CIGs to
hang around majority of the terminals throughout the day and
even into Thursday night. A period of drier weather expected
late overnight, but chances for showers quickly return near
sunrise as the upper low continues its slow, eastward
progression.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Clark/AR
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...Binau
AVIATION...Clark

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
454 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-270900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
454 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Severe storms are possible today. The most favored time for severe
weather is between 1 PM and 7 PM. Damaging wind is the primary
threat. Large hail and tornado potential are low, but cannot be ruled
out. There is also a chance for heavy rainfall and localized
flooding this afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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