Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
218 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions are expected today, with showers and
storms moving into the area this afternoon and tonight. A cold
front will move through the region Sunday, switching winds to
the northwest, and bringing drier and cooler conditions later
Sunday into Monday. Warmer temperatures are expected again
Tuesday and Wednesday, with chances for storms returning by the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PM update: Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the
west and southwest in area of best instability along with
lingering convergent axes left over from this morning.

Chances of storm development heading into the mid- afternoon
hours will continue to ramp up along and northwest of
Interstate 71. CAMs showing 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along with
25-30 knots of effective bulk shear should lead to multicellular
organization with perhaps a few supercells. Relatively weak
low- level flow and little directional shear keep tornado threat
on the low side... however will still need to watch based on
storm- to- storm interactions and the moderate instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Although the first rounds of convection (possibly severe) will
already be underway by the time this evening rolls around, the
synoptic-scale pattern will not change much heading into the
overnight hours. This is largely because the surface cold front
will remain hung up just upstream of the region, only resuming
its southeastward motion after 00Z. While surface-based
instability may be worked over, the approach of the front (and
continuing favorable upper support) will allow for additional
showers and storms to develop through the overnight hours. The
severe threat with this additional activity should be low, but
it will necessitate keeping PoPs in the forecast (as high as
60-80 percent) into Sunday morning. With the front in the area,
there will be a gradient in min temps -- mid 50s in the
northwestern CWA to upper 60s in the southeastern CWA. Given
some slight uncertainties regarding frontal timing and the sharp
gradient in temperatures, this is a fairly low-confidence
forecast for min temps.

The front will continue moving southeast on Sunday, resulting in
a gradual drying trend from NW to SE. For similar reasons as
described above with respect to min temps Sunday morning, max
temps Sunday afternoon are also a low-confidence forecast. The
surface front will likely clear the forecast area by around 18Z,
but the theta-e axis at 850mb will be lagging behind the surface
front, helping to explain why cloud cover (and some chances for
rain) will continue into the early to mid afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A system moving mainly southeast of the region will bring a
slight chance for precipitation to southeastern portions of the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning. After this
system shifts off to the east, dry conditions will be in place
through Tuesday morning. There will then be the potential for a
few pop up showers and storms Tuesday afternoon generally near
and south of the Ohio River.

A stronger low pressure system approaches and moves through the
region Wednesday into Thursday. Winds will increase on both of
these days and be gusty. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to occur on both days. There is the potential for some severe
storms with this system and models are in general agreement as
well. Decided to hold off on mention in the HWO at this point to
see some additional consistent runs showing this potential.
Precipitation will taper off on Friday with Saturday expected to
be a dry day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm and humid airmass will allow for scattered thunderstorm
coverage through the afternoon and evening, with best coverage
in the 22Z to 01Z time frame associated with a large convective
system moving in from Indiana. Have added appropriate tempo
groups for this time, and will need to watch for additional
amendments as storms move closer to the terminals.

Winds shift back to the northwest early Sunday morning behind
the cold front, and guidance brings cloud bases down to MVFR
thresholds at that time. This will likely continue through the
day.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are expected Sunday morning.
Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
600 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>072-077-078-221000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Hardin-Mercer-
Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-
600 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some of these
storms may be severe. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
threats. Tornado potential is low, but cannot be ruled out. Some
storms may also produce heavy rainfall. The most likely time frame
for severe storms will be between 3PM and 10PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

KYZ094>100-OHZ073-074-079>082-088-221000-
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-
Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
600 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. A few storms could
be strong to severe, with a threat for gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

HATZOS

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