Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern this weekend with scattered showers and
storms into this evening and again Sunday night. Slightly
cooler and drier air filters in for the start of the workweek
before additional chances for storms arrive midweek and beyond
as warmer and more humid air returns to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal heating combined with some increase in low level
moisture has result in moderate instability across the area this
afternoon. Mid level support is limited with rather light wind
flow indicated on area soundings. Disorganized -- slow moving
storms to continue into this evening. Storms to our west,
showing a little better organization invof of a weak front to
work into west central Ohio and then weaken with the loss of
heating. DCAPE values up to 1000 J/KG. Given the lack of
favorable wind flow for good organization -- the main threat
will be strong to damaging winds, heavy rain due to the slow
movement and some small hail.

The airmass will quickly stabilize by late this evening with
convection weakening and shifting southeast of ILN/s area.
Some clearing is expected late which could lead to the some
patchy fog development. Lows tonight to range from the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level shortwave to dig southeast from the northern plains
across the Mid MS Valley Sunday and into the Great Lakes Sunday
night.

In warm sector moderate instability develops Sunday afternoon
but favorable forcing is not present. Some of the forecast
soundings indicate a cap that may inhibit convective development
during the daylight hours. Have limited any mention of
thunderstorms to slight chance late in the day. Have opted to go
a little warmer than NBM guidance for highs. Expect warm highs
in the lower and middle 80s.

Favorable forcing and deeper-layer shear develops late Sunday
evening into the overnight hours, as the shortwave approaches
from the west. Have increased pops to categorical for the most
favored time for storms late evening/overnight. Uncertainty
exists regarding the amount of instability that will remain and
the potential for strong to severe storms. Forecast soundings
are showing a near-sfc inversion, and elevated instby by the
time the most favorable lift comes into play. This will work to
limit severe potential. Will continue to mention this potential
with the best chance in our far west as convection weakens as
it tracks across ILN/s FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday morning, a surface cold front will be moving southeast
through the ILN CWA, as the axis of a mid-level shortwave will
already be just past the forecast area. The main period of
convective potential will already be done by 12Z, but until the
surface front has passed, there will still be some chance of showers
for the area -- ending west-to-east through the morning and early
afternoon. NW flow behind the front will advect in a drier and
cooler air mass, with skies eventually clearing during the day.
Despite the change in air mass and the NW winds, temperatures will
remain close to normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Some
gusts to around 20-25 knots look possible, so winds are slightly
higher than the model blend.

A flatter mid-level pattern will set up across the Ohio Valley going
into the middle of the week, while a broad area of surface high
pressure will gradually drift eastward on Tuesday and into
Wednesday. This will keep surface flow light and generally with a
northerly component, so temperatures will likely only change
slightly in the Mon-Tue-Wed time frame -- still remaining in the
70s. The situation aloft will be a little different, as the axis of
a ridge begins to move into the area, and some theta-e advection at
850mb and above begins as early as Tuesday night. More robust
moisture advection will pick up at lower levels on Wednesday and
into Wednesday night, with some kind of west-to-east boundary
establishing itself across the Ohio Valley. As this setup combines
with some fast-moving shortwaves moving across the region, atop a
low-amplitude southeastern ridge, occasional shower/storm chances
are expected from late Tuesday night through the end of the week.
With a fast-moving upper pattern and multiple shortwaves, confidence
in exact timing for the highest precipitation chances is uncertain,
though it appears some of the higher chances may be on Wednesday
night. It is also uncertain if there will be a favorable overlap of
shear and instability during this time period, but it appears
possible, especially as SBCAPE begins to ramp up on Thursday. Thus,
this period will need to be watched for some strong storm potential.

The stronger surface-based warm advection beginning on Thursday will
continue into Friday and Saturday, as deep-layer southwesterly flow
sets up over the ILN CWA. This looks like it may lead to diminishing
precipitation chances from Thursday to Friday to Saturday, as the
pattern becomes one that supports temperatures rising above normal.
In fact, the strength of the flow supports a forecast a little above
the model blend, and max temps were increases lightly for all three
days from Thu-Fri-Sat. Mid to upper 80s are expected Friday and
Saturday, with an outside chance at some 90 degree readings in the
southern part of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moderate instability resulting in scattered thunderstorm
development in the warm air mass this afternoon. Storms will be
disorganized due to the light flow. A few of the storms could
produce gusty winds. Have generally covered these storms with
VCTS with a tempo at KCVG and KLUK where coverage is better.
Visibilities will be reduced to IFR in heavy downpours.

Convective activity will be tapering off slowly past sunset
with loss of diurnally-driven instability. Any spots that are
impacted by SHRA/TSRA will be susceptible to BR/FG development
late tonight as skies clear. Have MVFR vsby restriction at KLCK
and IFR at KLUK. Any fog will improve quickly Sunday morning
with VFR conditions expected thru most of the daylight hours.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
403 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

KYZ099-100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088-152015-
Mason-Lewis-Union OH-Delaware-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
403 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through this
evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms may be possible,
with gusty winds being the primary threat. Also, the slow movement of
the storms may lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and storms are likely Sunday night. A few isolated strong to
severe storms will be possible, with gusty or damaging winds being
the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078-152015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-
403 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through this
evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms may be possible,
with gusty winds being the primary threat. Also, the slow movement of
the storms may lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and storms are likely Sunday night. A few isolated strong to
severe storms will be possible, with gusty or damaging winds being
the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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