Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and gusty winds are expected tonight, with a cold front
moving through on Wednesday morning. Much colder air will move
in for Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures moderating by
Friday. Precipitation chances may return again on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As discussed by previous forecasts, the overall themes for the
upcoming period of active weather are mostly unchanged. A
strengthening low pressure passing to the north supplies an
active near term period with increasing chances for rain and
breezy conditions.

Rain details: Already observing showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms across Indiana developing within the well
advertised positive theta-e advection region east of the cold
front. Expect these to expand in coverage throughout the evening
hours as mass convergence increases ahead of the approaching
trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting in from the
southwest supply enough support for mentions of thunder through
the evening and overnight. In individual cores, some small hail
is certainly possible. Rainfall amounts are generally expected
to be between 0.25-0.50 area wide with some isolated corridors
close to an inch where thunderstorms occur. The cold front
passes through the area between 2 am and 7 am, with rain coming
to an end as it passes.

Wind details: Several features support elevated winds through
the evening and into the early morning hours. The first is
associated with the enhanced flow tied to the system. Typically,
the warm air advection winds struggle to mix down to the
surface regularly, resulting in sporadic bursts of gusts. As the
showers and convection move through this evening and into the
overnight, regular gusts of 25-35 mph are forecast, but sporadic
gusts between 35-45 mph are possible. The second feature
bringing elevated wind gusts tonight is the passage of the cold
front. As the cold front passes, pressure fluctuations with the
front will result in a brief period of gusty winds along and
behind the front. Once again, locally strong wind gusts up to
35-45 mph are possible, but given the brief nature and the lack
of confidence in gusts over 45 mph, have opted to not issue an
advisory for these conditions. Will instead issue an SPS across
the whole area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be near the US-23 corridor toward the beginning
of the short term with the elevated winds ongoing area wide.
Rainfall chances quickly decreases behind the front with high
confidence in dry conditions for the rest of the period.

Cold air rushes in behind the front, making the high
temperatures for the day during the early morning hours. The
afternoon temperatures will only slightly moderate during the
afternoon with 30s forecast area wide. The 30s may be avoided in
the far southeastern counties along the Ohio River.

The biggest question for the day Wednesday is whether or not
clouds clear during the afternoon. There will be area wide
improvements after the front passes, but once the sun rises and
heating occurs in the area of cold air advection expect cloud
cover to expand once again. Models typically struggle with cold
air advection cloud coverage so tried to be more aggressive than
current blends.

Winds are above 10 knots through the period, but wind gusts of
25-35 mph gradually decrease through the later portion of the
day and into the overnight. Surface high pressure builds over
the region into the morning hours with decreasing winds into
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although dry conditions will start out the long term on
Thursday, a majority of the long term time period will be
active. Rain will start to move into the region Friday night as
a system approaches the region. A cold front will move through
on Saturday. Dry conditions will return by Saturday night with
cooler air moving in after the front.

Dry conditions are expected for a majority of the daytime hours
on Sunday before several waves of precipitation move into the
area for next week. Later Sunday through Tuesday will be a rainy
timeframe. There will be the potential for some moderate to
heavy rainfall during this time and will have to continue to
monitor for potential additional messaging with this system.
While models are in general agreement on the main aspects of
this system, there are some differences in the details on timing
and location. Will hold off on mention in HWO for another day
until there is greater confidence in location of heavier
rainfall. Right now the heavier rainfall looks to be situated
along and southeast of Interstate 71.

There will be some non diurnal temperatures during the long
term time frame and have timed out temperatures based on current
thinking of timing. In addition, increased winds Friday night
and Saturday with some wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Approaching low pressure system to bring lowering ceilings and
scattered to numerous showers as we approach and pass midnight.
Thunderstorms will be isolated in nature, so have included a
vcts group to express this. Visibility may drop very briefly
into the IFR range during the storms, so will handle this with
tempo groups as we start to get an idea of coverage and timing
heading into the overnight.

Wind gusts will becoming more numerous over the next few hours.
Seeing some gusts in the 20-30 knot range just upstream in
Indiana, so have this potential starting with the first line of
the TAF. Gusts will be found out the south ahead of the cold
front early tonight, then be more westerly late, after the front
moves through the region.

There is pretty good agreement that the low-level clouds will
scatter out in cold/dry air advection tomorrow.

OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible again
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
530 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-301030-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
530 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Windy conditions are expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with
occasional gusts of up to 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

HATZOS

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