Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
728 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening in association
with a cold front. Strong high pressure will follow the front
Thursday and Friday with much cooler weather. The next chance
of precipitation arrives late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Shortwave trough currently located over the upper Midwest will
dig southeast in the Great Lakes tonight. Associated cold front
will sweep through the middle Ohio Valley late this evening
bringing to end the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
tonight will range from the middle 50s in the north well behind
the front to the lower 60s in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air advection on the heels of gusty northwest winds will
keep temperatures well below normal on Thursday. In addition,
dewpoints will fall into the 40s during the day. A few locations
may see low temperatures dip into the upper 30s Thursday night
with efficient radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure of Canadian origin will continue to build southward
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Friday. Under mostly sunny
skies, and after a chilly start, temperatures will remain cool.
Highs will range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south.
These readings are some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for late
September.

For the period Friday night into Saturday, the high will pass east
through the region. Clouds will thicken some Friday night as WAA
develops aloft out ahead of mid level energy moving east into the
Great Lakes. Clouds will then thin some Saturday with some rebound
in temperatures as low level WAA occurs. Highs will range between 70
and 75 degrees.

Long range models are still fairly similar in terms of timing of the
next weather system to affect our area Sunday into Monday. Another
mid level trough is poised to dig southeast into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley, sending a cold front through. Moisture return and
enough dynamics warrant a chance of showers/slight chance of
thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. Cooler weather will return
for Monday. The mid level trough is expected to linger into early
week, which may result in a low chance of diurnal showers across the
north and east, otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy. Highs in the
70s Sunday will lower into the 60s for the first part of next week.
Lows will cool from the 50s to the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms still possible across all
terminals through the start of the taf period. The most robust
complex of storms is around KCVG/KLUK, so have a prevailing
shower with TEMPO TSRA at the start of the period. This may
translate eastward and impact KILN, so included a prevailing
shower there as well. Elsewhere, coverage is more limited, but
other terminals may be impacted - will have to handle with
amends as needed. MVFR/IFR vsbys possible in the showers/storms,
but CIGs expected to remain in VFR category.

Shower activity will end near midnight as the cold front pushes
through. Winds shift towards the northwest and gradually
increase as we progress into the morning hours. Sustained
northwesterly winds of around 15 kts with gusts of 25 kts
possible during the day Thursday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Clark

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
406 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-222015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
406 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms forming along a cold front could become strong to
severe this evening. Damaging winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
707 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

KYZ093-OHZ070-077-212330-
Campbell KY-Hamilton OH-Butler OH-
707 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAMPBELL,
HAMILTON AND SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 707 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Taylor Creek,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Fairfield, Norwood, Forest Park, Fort Thomas, Newport,
Sharonville, Blue Ash, Springdale, Reading, Montgomery, Harrison,
North College Hill, Madeira, Wyoming, Cheviot, Mount Healthy,
Bellevue, Deer Park and Dayton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8478 3933 8437 3918 8433 3909 8441
      3913 8471 3914 8472 3915 8474 3914 8476
      3913 8477 3914 8482 3917 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 282DEG 22KT 3922 8471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
729 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N VERSAILLES            39.07N 85.26W
09/21/2022                   RIPLEY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE DOWN ON US 50 NEAR QUICKPIX. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

JEG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

OHZ046-056-220000-
Licking OH-Delaware OH-
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHWESTERN LICKING COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sunbury, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Granville, Johnstown, Sunbury, Utica, Galena, Alexandria,
Hartford, St. Louisville, Fredonia, US Route 62 at State Route 661,
Olive Green and Center Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4005 8240 4012 8276 4013 8276 4013 8280
      4014 8288 4033 8284 4033 8275 4028 8275
      4027 8248 4025 8248 4024 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 279DEG 25KT 4024 8277

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

AR