Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will persist through the remainder of
the week, along with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Some of the storms will produce heavy rain with
the potential for flash flooding today into tonight along with
the possibility of strong to damaging winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early afternoon update...
As expected, thunderstorms are beginning to intensify across
southwest Ohio, southeast Indiana, and soon northern Kentucky. A
severe thunderstorm watch is out until 7 PM. Due to much of the
heavy thunderstorm activity occurring south of the heavy rain
footprint from last night, the flood watch for flash flooding
will likely be canceled early.

Morning update...
A line of thunderstorms (non-severe) is currently moving along
and north of the I-70 corridor. Have adjusted PoPs upward the
next couple of hours as a result. A few other scattered
thunderstorms are also ongoing this morning.

Despite the overnight and current activity, a pool of rich
moisture and instability is currently in place over south-
central Indiana into western Kentucky. Over the course of the
next few hours, this instability pushes northeast into the
forecast area, ahead of increasing surface convergence currently
moving southward out of north-central Indiana. The convergence
and abundant heating through late morning results in new
development focused over eastern Indiana, southwest-west-central
Ohio between 11 AM- Noon. These storms will move east-southeast
into central/southern Ohio and northern Kentucky through the
afternoon producing scattered damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

There is still uncertainty for late afternoon/evening as the
frontal boundary moves through from the north. Any remaining
instability could lead to more, less organized thunderstorms,
depending on the widespread nature of the afternoon round.

Previous discussion...(420AM)
Strong mid level ridge from the Southern Plains thru the
southeast U.S. with an active belt of thunderstorms around its
periphery from the Upper MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. Very
moist airmass in place with ILN/s 00Z showing a precipitable
water value of 1.9 inches. Ongoing thunderstorm complex
dropping southeast thru Central and West Central Ohio. Multiple
gages recording 4 inches plus since midnight across Franklin
county Ohio. Very heavy rainfall rates with these training
storms resulting in flash flooding. These storms will continue
to sag slowly south as the MBE/s track ESE.

A second MCS tracking thru Northern Illinois and into NW Indiana
will push east into western Ohio prior to sunrise and across
the area this morning. This second round of storms will push
off to the east with associated MCV and there will be a general
lull in convective activity later this morning into the
afternoon.

A good spread is observed in the model solutions regarding
additional storm development later this afternoon. In the
weakly forced environment the models will struggle to latch onto
a focus and hone in on a solution. With moderate to strong
instability in an airmass with surface dewpoints of 70 to 75
deg F -- especially across the southwest expect that scattered
convection will re- develop. A few of the stronger updrafts will
be capable of producing strong to damaging wind gusts.

Impactful weather...
1) Flash flooding is the main concern today into this evening.
Have issued a flood watch for flash flooding across areas along
and north of I-70 and into the Lower Scioto Valley until this
evening.

2) Severe weather...Will highlight in the HWO product the
possibility of strong to damaging winds with a few of the
stronger updrafts this morning, with a better chance this
afternoon into this evening.

3) Heat...High temperatures will range from the mid/upper 80s
far north to the lower 90s southwest. These hot temperatures in
the southwest combined with high humidity will result in heat
indices above 100 across the southwest and south this afternoon.
Have issued a heat advisory for this area into early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The Ohio Valley to remain in an active belt of westerlies around
the periphery of a strong mid level ridge from the Southern
Plains thru the southeast U.S. Scattered storms which develop
in the moderate to strongly unstable airmass to weaken this
evening due to lack of good forcing. A few of the storms could
produce strong to damaging winds with heavy rain continuing to
be a threat. Muggy overnight lows to continue with lows from near
70 to lower 70s.

Most model solutions have trended drier for Thursday with weak
high pressure over the Great Lakes. Have trimmed back NBM pops
but still have some low chance pops especially across the south.
Additional cutbacks to pops may be possible with future updates
if confidence in the drier solution for Thursday increases.
Thursdays highs are expected to range from 85 northeast to 90
southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday
night and Friday when a cold front and wave of low pressure combine
with copious moisture. PWAT values exceeding 2 inches once again
point to the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding. A
drier weather regime becomes established Saturday through Monday as
a broad area of high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Tuesday when
the next cold front swings southeast from Canadian low pressure.

High temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the middle 80s
Friday through Sunday will be a bit below normal. Readings return to
near normal middle and upper 80s Monday and Tuesday as warm
advection takes hold around high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current focus is on thunderstorm evolution ongoing over
DAY/ILN/CVG/LUK. Local conditions will evolve rapidly as
thunderstorms move through so amendments may be frequent. The
thunderstorm activity fades south over the next few hours with
activity becoming more limited to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Later this evening, attention will switch to increasing cloud
cover and favorable conditions for MVFR/IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS.
Confidence has increased so went ahead with IFR CIGs for most
sites although timing may need adjusted. Slowly raise ceilings
into the morning hours as temperatures begin to warm.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-071-
     077>079-081-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
503 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-070915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-
503 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Several rounds of storms will affect the area, this morning and then
again this afternoon into tonight. The possibility of strong to
damaging winds exists with a few of the stronger updrafts this
morning, with a better chance for severe weather this afternoon into
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of thunderstorms will move through the area Friday and
Friday night. Heavy rain and flooding will be possible with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ072-080-082-070915-
Clinton-Highland-Pike-
503 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of storms will affect the area, this morning and then
again this afternoon into tonight. The possibility of strong to
damaging winds exists with a few of the stronger updrafts this
morning, with a better chance for severe weather this afternoon into
this evening. Also, heavy rain may result in localized flooding with
the repeated rounds of storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of thunderstorms will move through the area Friday and
Friday night. Heavy rain and flooding will be possible with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070-071-077>079-081-088-070915-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Adams-Scioto-
503 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Storms will affect the area, this morning and then again this
afternoon into tonight. The possibility of strong to damaging winds
exists with a few of the stronger updrafts this afternoon into this
evening. Also, heavy rain may result in localized flooding with the
repeated rounds of storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of thunderstorms will move through the area Friday and
Friday night. Heavy rain and flooding will be possible with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
257 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094-095-061945-
Switzerland IN-Carroll KY-Owen KY-Gallatin KY-Grant KY-
257 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
SWITZERLAND, CARROLL, WEST CENTRAL GRANT, NORTHWESTERN OWEN AND
WESTERN GALLATIN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Carrollton,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Vevay, Owenton, Kentucky Speedway, Ghent, Sanders,
Sparta, Worthville, Prestonville, Braytown, Interstate 71 at Mile
Marker 52, Langstaff, Wheatley, Locust, Moorefield, New Liberty,
Interstate 71 at Mile Marker 40, Interstate 71 at State Route 227,
Long Ridge and English.

This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
southeastern Indiana...and northern Kentucky.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 8526 3869 8520 3880 8520 3881 8518
      3863 8465 3848 8497 3849 8499 3852 8498
      3852 8500 3850 8502 3851 8503 3855 8500
      3857 8504 3856 8506 3858 8508 3860 8508
      3858 8521 3863 8523 3874 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 280DEG 30KT 3868 8515

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Clark

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
303 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     KYMESO ALEXANDRIA 5NW   39.02N 84.47W
07/06/2022  M53 MPH          CAMPBELL           KY   MESONET

&&

JEG

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