Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will quickly move through the region tonight with
showers and storms likely. High pressure will build in on
Thursday, providing mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures.
Next chance of precipitation arrives Friday night with a
reinforcing shot of chilly air heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms will move quickly through the region
this evening ahead of a sharp cold front. Strongest storms will
affect southwest CWA and Cincy metro area within the next 1-3
hours with an initial line of thunderstorms containing wind
gusts to 40 mph, higher in any more organized storms. Remainder
of the CWA will see some isolated thunder with widespread
showers spreading eastward.

Behind the line of showers/storms, the front will rush in late
bringing perhaps another line of gusty showers, then falling
temperatures. Northwesterly gusts could reach 25-35 mph
immediately following the front with the initial cold air
advection. Lows will range from around 40 in the west to near
50 in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Rapid clearing will occur early Thursday morning, providing a
sunny and breezy day. Despite the cold air advection, warm mid-
April sunshine leads to high temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s by afternoon.

The surface high quickly shifts to the central Appalachians by
Thursday night, causing winds to shift back to the southwest.
However, clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the
lower 40s by early Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Friday, the closed low continues its slow trek eastward through
Quebec. Deterministic models are picking up on some pcpn being
forced at the surface as some vorticity lobes are wrapped around the
southern base of the low. However, confidence (as well as moisture)
is limited, so kept slight pops for areas south with chance in areas
north for Friday night into Saturday morning.

Warmer temperatures can be expected in the southern CWA for Friday,
with highs in the upper 60s/ low 70s, however, additional cloud
cover and slightly higher PoPs in the north will keep those
counties a bit cooler, with highs in the low/mid 60s. Additionally,
kept winds higher in the north where the lingering pressure gradient
is a bit tighter with gusts between 20-25kts Friday daylight hours.

Some decent cold air advection allows for cooler temperatures over
the weekend, with highs on Saturday in the low 50s to the north, low
60s to the south. Continuing this trend, lows Sunday morning drop
into the mid to low 30s for the entire CWA. These temperatures,
combined with clear skies and calmer conditions will promote frost
development across much of the area. Will add more on this as we get
closer and add a note in the HWO for areas where the frost/freeze
program has been initiated.

Decent consensus between deterministic models that the (much talked
about) upper level low will finally be off to the east by Saturday
night (the Euro is a bit sluggish with this). Mid-level ridging and
surface high pressure builds into the area Sunday morning. This will
allow for a dry Easter Sunday, albeit cooler, with highs in the
low/mid 50s .

Pcpn returns again as models come into somewhat better agreement (in
terms of location and timing) on the next system that is brought
into the area. A mid level trough digs down into the north central
plains and Ohio Valley from Sunday night through Tuesday, with its
associated surface low occluding rapidly as it travels over the
plains and into our area, bringing pcpn along with it Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Line of thunderstorms will hit CVG/LUK between 1 and 1:30Z with
widespread showers and an occasional thunderstorm affecting DAY
and ILN closer to 2-3Z, and showers with a slight chance of
thunder. Left thunder out of central OH TAF sites attm, will
amend if this trend changes in the next few hours. MVFR
cigs/vsbys in showers and storms are expected for a few hours
this evening, dropping to MVFR cigs with lighter showers later
overnight, and clearing early in the day tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-074-140900-
Union OH-Delaware-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Hocking-
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and storms are expected tonight. A few of these storms may
be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the primary threat. A
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

KYZ100-OHZ073-080>082-088-140900-
Lewis-Ross-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky and South
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and storms are expected tonight. A few of these storms may
be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the primary threat. A
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures on Saturday night into early Sunday morning will dip
into the lower to mid 30s. Areas of front will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062-140900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and storms are expected this evening into tonight. Some of
these storms may be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the
primary threat. A tornado or two will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070>072-077>079-140900-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and storms are expected this evening into tonight. Some of
these storms may be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the
primary threat. A tornado or two will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures on Saturday night into early Sunday morning will dip
into the lower to mid 30s. Areas of front will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
953 PM EDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE BATESVILLE        39.23N 85.18W
04/13/2022                   RIPLEY             IN   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON NORTH ADAMS CHURCH ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JEG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
954 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

KYZ097-OHZ071-072-078>080-140230-
Bracken KY-Clermont OH-Highland OH-Brown OH-Warren OH-Clinton OH-
954 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRACKEN,
CLERMONT, BROWN, EASTERN WARREN, CLINTON AND WESTERN HIGHLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 954 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located from near
Waynesville to 8 miles southeast of Loveland to Neville, moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Wilmington, Georgetown, Blanchester, Amelia, Mount Orab,
Waynesville, Bethel, Williamsburg, Batavia, Lynchburg, Augusta,
Morrow, Sardinia, Felicity, South Lebanon, Woodville, Maineville,
Owensville and Clarksville.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 29 and 56.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 8423 3890 8424 3919 8421 3953 8421
      3955 8373 3930 8371 3877 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 253DEG 36KT 3949 8414 3922 8414 3883 8423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
955 PM EDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW OSGOOD            39.20N 85.33W
04/13/2022                   RIPLEY             IN   911 CALL CENTER

            CONSTRUCTION SIGNS BLOWN DOWN ON 421. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

JEG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>