Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered storms will linger today south of the Ohio River,
with drier and cooler air filtering in for tonight through the
upcoming weekend. Dry conditions are expected this weekend
through early next week, with a return to hotter and more humid
conditions by early next workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The much-anticipated front is knocking on our northern doorstep
this morning, with a slow southward progression expected through
the first part of the daytime period. Much drier air will filter
in from N to S through the AM hours, with DPs trending from the
lower 70s to the upper 50s for many spots by late afternoon.

Until we can get to this drier air area-wide, we will first
contend with a convective complex which will race SE through
the southern OH Vly through the first 6 to 8 hours of the
daytime period. This complex of storms, currently located across
MO, is expected to progress rapidly ESE past daybreak into
parts of S IN and WC KY by mid morning. Still some latitudinal
uncertainties in exactly where this cluster will progress, but
confidence has increased in it staying mainly across far SE IN
and N KY from mid morning through early afternoon.

There are several fcst challenges that will accompany the
cluster of storms, most notably the potential for an isolated
strong to severe storm across the far S fringes of the ILN FA
from Carroll to Lewis Co KY. The storms will be moving into an
environment with ample instby, characterized by LL DPs still in
the lower/mid 70s. This, combined with seasonably steep low and
mid level lapse rates and more-than-sufficient low- and deep-
layer shear, presents a scenario where a small window may evolve
for a few strong to severe storms late morning though early
afternoon in the southern tier or two of ILN FA counties. This
would especially be the case if the complex can take on a bowing
shape, aided by a RIJ supported by ~35+ kts of 0-3km shear
oriented perpendicular to the bowing structure. All of this
paints a picture of a brief window, perhaps from 11 AM to 2 PM
or so, where a few strong to severe storms could be possible,
with strong/damaging winds being the primary threat. It also
remains equally possible that this threat stays /just/ to the
S of the ILN FA, rendering nothing but an increase in cloud
cover from mid morning through mid afternoon before skies trend
clearer area-wide late afternoon through the remainder of the
near term period. Will highlight potential in HWO for the
southernmost small segment of the local area.

Weather conditions turn tranquil area-wide past mid afternoon as
the front completes its progression through the local area and
much drier air filters in area-wide from the end of the near
term period into tonight/Saturday morning.

Highs today will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with a
few 90 degree readings possible. The high temp fcst remains a
bit tricky for today, however, owing to the complexities that
the late morning/early afternoon storm activity and associated
cloud cover may have on temps. Would obviously expect for temps
to be quite a bit lower in the far south from mid morning
through mid afternoon, but there may be enough warming before
/and/ after the storms and more widespread cloud cover to still
get temps into the mid to upper 80s for these areas. So the
highs may end up relatively uniform in the bigger picture once
the day comes to a close.

WNW winds around 15 MPH, with gusts to 25 MPH, are expected
near/N of the OH Rvr in the post-frontal environment from late
morning through early evening before winds subside a bit for
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Heat and humidity relief will be the name of the game starting
tonight through the upcoming weekend as unseasonably dry air
filters into the OH Vly, with DPs dipping into the 40s by
Saturday morning. This will allow for temps to bottom out in the
mid/upper 50s by daybreak before rebounding to the mid 70s to
around 80 degrees by Saturday afternoon. This will all occur
under clear skies, with ample sunshine on tap for the daytime
Saturday as sfc high pressure settles into the Great Lakes
region.

This will also set the stage for more dry weather on Sunday,
with temps perhaps a few degrees warmer to close out the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pretty quiet long term period as the Ohio Valley generally remains
under the influence of high pressure and upper level ridging. To
start, the downstream portion of the ridge keeps northwesterly flow
aloft and thus provides a seasonably cooler air mass from Saturday
night into Sunday. Temperatures continue to trend in the middle 70s
to near 80 on Sunday, which would be around 5 degrees below
climatological normals.

The H5 ridge begins to propagate eastward Sunday night into Monday,
with the mean axis of the ridge gradually shifting over our fa. In
turn, this will promote height rises and usher in warmer and more
humid conditions as we head into the work week. Temperatures will
still be close to normal values on Monday, but as the warmer air
continues to work its way in, Tuesday will see temperatures jump
back into the middle 90s across the CWA. Fortunately, dewpoints are
only forecast to reach the low to mid-60s, and while this will make
the air feel a bit muggier, it is still notably lower than the
recent observed dewpoints in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

As we progress into Wednesday, the upper level ridge begins to
flatten out, with flow becoming more zonal aloft. However, we still
remain in a warmer air mass, so high temperatures will remain in the
mid-90s on Wednesday. There is still some indication from various
ensembles that pcpn could work its way into our fa around the
Wednesday/Wednesday night period and continue into Thursday with
upper level energy traversing through the Great Lakes region. Still
not enough guidance to include pcpn everywhere in the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly clear skies will prevail through the first hour or so of
the TAF period before the approach of a complex of SHRA/TSRA by
mid morning across the Tri-State potentially grazes KCVG/KLUK
on its northern fringe between about 15z-17z. Confidence is
low in whether either of these sites would be impacted by a
brief TSRA as any pcpn at either site would be very brief in
nature, but this may be accompanied by sudden reductions in
VSBYs and gusty winds. Should a TSRA over either site become
increasingly likely, this will be handled with amendments as
needed, but have included a VCTS at both sites to account for
this potential.

Elsewhere/further N, will see a FEW/SCT VFR Cu and a FEW
passing cirrus through mid afternoon, followed by a clearing
trend for all local terminals beyond 18z. Light SW winds early
in the period will go more W with the FROPA between 10z-14z (N
to S, respectively), followed by NW winds at 12-15kts, with
gusts 20-25kts beyond 15z in the post-frontal environment. NW
gusts subside a bit past sunset, but stay up at 10-12kts, with
clear skies once again beyond 00z. Winds go more N overnight and
eventually out of the ENE toward the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...No hazardous weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC

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