Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather threat continues this afternoon as potent low
pressure tracks to the Great Lakes. Drier and cooler air
circulating around the low will bring an end to showers and
thunderstorms tonight. A couple of disturbances may bring a few
more showers on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Severe weather threat continues in the circulation around 996mb
low pressure centered near Chicago. With most of the area north
of the Ohio River under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, several
thunderstorm lines and cells are currently being monitored. Main
threats are damaging winds and large hail, along with the
possibility for isolated tornadoes. Strongest storms coincide
with CAPE values around 1100 J/KG, organized by very strong wind
fields at the surface and aloft. Conditions are likely to
improve by early this evening as drier and more stable air works
in around the low from the southwest. Strong synoptic wind
gusts will linger through tonight in the tight pressure gradient
around the low. Overnight lows in the low to mid 40s are
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As low pressure moves to Southern Canada, a dry slot will keep
precip from forming early Thursday. The threat for a few showers
returns Thursday afternoon when an upper trough is forecast to
push in from the west. Showers chances end Thursday night as the
trough tracks east. Cooler highs Thursday in the upper 40s west
to around 60 southeast will be followed by lows in the upper 30s
to around 40s Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A highly-amplified mid and upper level flow pattern with a longwave
trof will continue to drift east across the eastern third of the
CONUS, with the trof axis tracking slowly from the Great Lakes to
northern Gulf east to the eastern seaboard toward the end of the
workweek.

Another potent/compact S/W will pivot SE from the Upper Midwest into
the OH Vly by late Friday night into early Saturday, providing a
reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold air and ensuring the weekend
features below normal temps locally. It will remain damp and rather
cloudy, even into the day on Friday, with renewed chances for
ISO/SCT SHRA Friday night into early Saturday. Current thermal
profiles should be warm enough to support mainly SHRA through the
first part of the overnight hours, opposed to SHSN, but a mix may
briefly present itself Saturday morning into the afternoon as the
combination of cold temps aloft with a cold BL may support some
ISO/SCT SHSN activity from the predawn hours until early afternoon.
Have differentiated RA vs SN in fcst based on LL/BL thermal
thresholds as that will most likely be the differentiating factor.
And even with the expectation for SCT/numerous RA/SN showers
Saturday morning, it won't amount to much, if any, except perhaps
for a quick dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces. Went below guidance
for temps on Saturday with anomalously cold air settling in aloft
and the anticipation of quite a bit of diurnally-driven cloud cover,
which should keep at least a low end chance of a few RA/SN showers
and/or sprinkles/flurries/graupel going well into the afternoon
hours.

Drier conditions filter in from the west late Saturday evening
through the remainder of the weekend as NW flow aloft becomes
established. A rather persistent and impressively-tight NW-to-SE
oriented baroclinic zone will become established somewhere in the
vicinity of the OH Vly early next week beneath the NW flow aloft.
There are indications of a narrow corridor of isentropic-lift-driven
pcpn developing near this baroclinic zone Monday night into Tuesday.
The longitudinal uncertainty of where this may set up is still quite
high, but there are some indications for a brief window of mixed
wintry precip early Tuesday before temps warm enough to transition
to all rain. Near or below normal temps are on through early next
week, before a warmup occurs toward midweek and beyond as a pattern
change evolves toward the end of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aviation will continue to be affected by potent low pressure
tracking from Illinois to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of the low and move to the vicinity of all sites
this afternoon. Will amend if any sites will receive direct
hits. Surface winds from the south to southwest are forecast to
gust around 30 knots outside of thunderstorms.

Once thunderstorms dissipate this evening, MVFR ceilings could
form, lasting through the overnight hours. As improvement to VFR
occurs on Thursday, winds from the southwest will gust close to
20 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
314 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-240715-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
314 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region on Wednesday.
Some storms may be severe during the afternoon and early evening
hours. The primary severe weather threats will be damaging winds and
large hail. Additionally, a tornado risk does exist.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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