Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
348 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level trough will continue to move east across the region
tonight. Lingering moisture and instability with the slowly
departing trough will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast for parts of the region on Monday. High
pressure will begin to build into the area from the west Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A mid level trough and its associated surface low and cold
front will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to our
area for the remainder of this afternoon. Pcpn will begin to
shift eastward this evening as the cold front moves in from the
west.

By later this evening, overall stronger forcing will shift east
out of the area as the front continues to progress east. In
fact much of the pcpn threat should be over after midnight.
Skies will become partly cloudy. With low level moisture
lingering in the post frontal environment, stratus and/or fog is
expected to develop later in the overnight. Lows will be in the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
It will start out partly to mostly cloudy Monday morning. Any
fog will lift by mid morning. We will still be on the back side
of the mid level trough. And with some weak embedded energy
rotating through the flow, this will aid in some lift during a
destabilizing airmass. The result will be a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. The highest will be in our northeast zones
with little to no pcpn expected in our far west. Highs will be
in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

As the airmass stabilizes Monday evening, any linger
shower/storm activity will dissipate. High pressure will begin
to build into the region from the west Monday night, allowing
clouds to decrease. Lows will be in the upper 50s to the lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much of the long term period features dry conditions with
temperatures in the mid 80s for highs and 60s for lows. The
primary reason for this lack of significant change through the
long-term period is due to a weak, long-wave meridional pattern
that prevents deep moisture from reaching into the Ohio Valley,
especially through midweek.

To start the long term, the local area will still be dealing
with some modest moisture as the influence of low pressure over
the Northeast lingers in the east. Will maintain a slight chance
of showers Tuesday with the best chance during the afternoon
and early evening. Most locations are expected to be dry.
Surface pressure wise, much of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
will experience weak high pressure through Thursday.

Moisture pooling occurs along a weak front Friday/Saturday but
the deep moisture remains shunted to the south. Will allow for
low chance PoPs Friday and Saturday given the uncertainty. The
ridge over the western US begins to break down into the weekend
with deep ridging building over the eastern US by Sunday. This
would favor better low level moisture advection, but for now,
there appears to be a lack of strong synoptic features. As a
result, low rainfall chances are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid level trough and its associated surface low/cold front
will continue to dig southeast into our region this afternoon
into this evening. With an unstable, moist airmass, showers and
thunderstorms can be expected, especially through the afternoon
into the early evening. MVFR ceilings and visibilities and IFR
or lower visibilities can be expected with the stronger storms.

Strongest forcing and lift will shift to the east overnight as
the region will be found in a post frontal regime. Pcpn will
decrease in coverage and move east. Models continue to indicate
that low level moisture behind the front will result in stratus
and/or fog develop overnight. Have ceilings and visibilities
lowering into the MVFR/IFR category with some local LIFR
conditions possible.

Low stratus and/or fog will gradually lift back toward VFR by
18Z. Some weak embedded mid level energy will rotate southeast
through the back side of aforementioned trough. This weak lift
will interact with developing diurnal instability to produce
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance
will be toward the KCMH/KLCK terminals. Again, lower conditions
can occur in the thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...No sig wx expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-220900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will occur today into this evening. A few
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon and evening. The main threat is damaging winds, although
some hail may occur as well. Locally heavy rain may is also possible
which could lead to some minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLOOD            5 NNW GAHANNA           40.09N 82.93W
08/21/2022                   FRANKLIN           OH   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER REACHING COLUMBUS WESTERVILLE CAMPUS. PARKING
            LOT USUALLY FLOODS AFTER HEAVY RAIN BUT FIRST TIME IN
            MEMORY WATER HAS REACHED THE BUILDING.

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
436 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     FLOOD            2 SSE NEWTONSVILLE      39.16N 84.07W
08/21/2022                   CLERMONT           OH   PUBLIC

            PHOTOS OF HIGH WATER ON WEAVER ROAD PROPERTIES POSTED TO
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SSE HARVEYSBURG       39.48N 83.99W
08/21/2022                   WARREN             OH   PUBLIC

            PHOTOS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD POSTED TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JEG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
457 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

OHZ064-065-073-074-212130-
Fairfield OH-Ross OH-Hocking OH-Pickaway OH-
457 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FAIRFIELD, WESTERN HOCKING, SOUTHEASTERN PICKAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN
ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Kingston, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Logan, Bremen, Pleasantville, Hide-A-Way Hills, Amanda,
Thurston, Stoutsville, Laurelville, Sugar Grove, Adelphi, Tarlton,
Fairfield County Airport, US Route 22 at State Route 159, Clearport,
North Berne, Buena Vista in Hocking County, Gibisonville, Hideaway
Hills and Lake Logan State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8277 3954 8293 3987 8254 3961 8238
      3960 8238 3960 8236 3951 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 233DEG 16KT 3955 8276

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Campbell