Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance crossing the area will result in showers and
thunderstorms into this evening. More showers and storms will
happen Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure moves into and
across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Convective development is peaking this afternoon as an embedded
s/wv moving northeast across the region interacts with an
unstable airmass. With moderate CAPE, low end deep layer shear,
and DCAPE values near between 700-900 J/kg, a few strong perhaps
severe storms may occur into the early evening. Main threat is
strong to damaging wind, but an isolated large hail occurrence
can not be ruled out.

For the overnight period, it appears there will be a lull in
convective coverage for most of the night as we will be behind
the aforementioned s/wv and the approach of a mid level trough.
Convection to the west may get into some of the western zones
late, but this should be on a weakening trend due to some lower
instabilities. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level trough will continue to dig southeast into our
region Sunday into Sunday night. There will be a weak surface
low and cold front with this system. For Sunday, the mid level
trough will interact with a destabilizing airmass once again.
And with the approach of the cold front providing some low level
convergence, showers and thunderstorms are expected,
particularly during the afternoon hours. With low end moderate
shear and at least low end moderate instability, there will
still be a threat for a few strong to perhaps severe storms.
Strong to damaging winds will once again be the main threat.
Hail may occur as well, but parameters suggest that the
probability of large hail (severe) will be lower than today.

For Sunday night, the main frontal boundary is forecast to pass
east across the area. With the loss of diurnal instability and
low level forcing, pcpn should wane from west to east. Models
suggest that lower clouds and perhaps some patchy fog may
develop overnight.

Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Lows Sunday night will drop into the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Longwave trough axis will be slow to clear the area on Monday
and even into Tuesday. Lingering instability and on Monday
coupled with the proximity of the slowly meandering vort max
within the trough will promote decent coverage of diurnally
enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity, especially across the
Scioto Valley of central and south central Ohio, though shower
threats will exist well west of this area too given cyclonic
flow and lingering low level moisture/instability. This threat
will mainly be confined to the Scioto Valley on Tuesday as the
longwave trough moves ever so slowly eastward into the
Appalachians. Both days will feature temperatures in the 70s to
around 80 thanks to diurnally enhanced cumulus and the influence
of the cool upper trough.

Wednesday-Friday likely to remain dry or mostly dry area-wide.
Residual upper level weakness in the height field suggest some
measure of cool temperatures aloft atop still seasonally moist
boundary layer, and with temperatures warming each day into the
80s, probably can't completely rule out an isolated shower, but
this should be the exception and not the norm. Overall large
scale forcing is pretty negligible Wed/Thur, but just enough
indication of a weak wave moving through rather flat
northwesterly flow on Friday to insert a small chance for
showers and storms. A little more indication of backing mid
level flow on Saturday to suggest an approach of a more decent
wave into next weekend, so maintained the small threat of
showers and storms into Saturday.

Overall, threats of widespread weather impacts appear quite
low. Temperatures should average out rather close to normal when
considering this period in sum, and is tilting
probabilistically drier than normal in the bulk of ensemble
systems in the Mon-Sat timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An embedded mid level disturbance will rotate northeast across
the region this afternoon into this evening. With a
destabilizing airmass, the lift associated with this feature
will bring the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions will certainly drop down into at least MVFR, with
brief IFR or lower visibilities possible in the stronger storms.

By this evening, this disturbance moves off to the northeast.
We should then find the region in a lull in terms of
precipitation coverage.

For the overnight, a mid level trough will continue to dig
southeast into the western Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley.
Upstream convection to our west may make it into our western
zones late or the first part of Sunday morning, but coverage
should be scattered at best. Models continue to signal the
possibility of MVFR ceilings developing late or just after
sunrise on Sunday. Have placed this in the forecast.

On Sunday, mid level trough will continue to dig into the
region while its associated weak surface low and front approach
from the west. Diurnal instability and large scale ascent from
the mid level trough, coupled by some weak low level convergence
out ahead of the front will result in the development of
widespread showers and the likelihood of thunderstorms.
Predominate ceilings may lift to low end VFR. However, lower
conditions can be expected in showers and storms with MVFR
ceilings and IFR or lower visibilities possible.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible late
Sunday night into Monday morning. Thunderstorms possible Sunday
evening and again on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Binau
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1246 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-211700-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1246 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and evening. A
few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible. The main
threat is damaging winds, although some hail may occur as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

More showers and thunderstorms will occur on Sunday. Once again, a
few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible. The main
threat is damaging winds, although some hail may occur as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>