Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
357 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging from the north will dominate during the
next 5 days. The exception will be the immediate coast this
weekend where an offshore low will pass by resulting in
possible onshore movement of showers occurring late tonight
thru Sunday. Temperatures will run at or above normal this
period, the exception will be the immediate coast Sunday where
at or below normal may occur.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-level troffing overhead this morning will close off
offshore from the U.S. Southeast Coast this afternoon and
slowly lift northward, remaining offshore as it reaches the
same latitude of the Eastern Carolinas later tonight. An
inverted sfc trof, roughly oriented South to North, will exist
offshore and may meander slightly westward late tonight as the
mid-level closed low approaches. Moisture will get thrown
westward, over the relatively cool dome of high pressure
extending southward, with the ridge axis along or just east of
the Appalachians. Will see clouds moving onshore during this
period, but will at times slow it's westward progression
as it runs into the drier air. Ie. More clouds east of the I-95
corridor, especially across the ILM NC CWA. Moisture is just
deep enough to include low chance POPs for the immediate NC
coast towards daybreak Sun. Temps to run at or slightly above
normal this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
While high pressure maintains control inland, a coastal trough
persists offshore, seemingly influencing the forecast the most
on Sunday. Looks like most will stay dry, but there's an axis
of moisture and forcing that lingers along and north of Cape
Fear. Keeping a slight chance of showers for these areas, with
the best chances for rain reserved for the earlier part of the
day Sunday. Moisture is not deep here, and recording even a
tenth of an inch would be a stroke of luck. Highs in the mid 70s
inland, while cloud cover over the NC Cape Fear region and
coastal plain will cap temperatures to near 70. Lows Sunday
night in the low-to-mid 50s.

Monday, coastal low weakens and moves southward, with high
pressure gaining more control over the majority of the area.
Little more sunshine expected, allowing high temperatures to
recover a bit into the mid 70s. Monday night, easterly flow in
the low levels ushers in some warmer ocean air. Low temperatures
on the rise, only getting to the mid 50s inland to near 60 at
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Slight undulations in the coastal trough move inland, which will
work to weaken the high pressure. However, rain chances don't
really seem to play much of a factor through midweek. A
stagnant airmass modifies over time, and temperatures push near
or above 80 degrees by Wednesday.

Guidance is finally starting to come together more further out
into the future, with an upper low pushing through the lower
Plains and then lifting through the Deep/Mid South by midweek.
This pushes a cold front through the Carolinas by Thursday, but
the dynamics are pretty washed out at this point. Increase in
cloud cover brings high temperatures down to the upper 70s. At
the surface, high pressure in Canada shifts eastward, and may
bring about the first cold air damming (CAD) wedge we've seen in
awhile. Impacts and timing gets dicey here, so this will need
monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR expected throughout the 06Z TAF Issuance Period. SCT/BKN
stratocu deck, above MVFR, will dominate closer to the coast
while inland terminals will see some erosion to the clouds as
they encounter the drier air. The threat for onshore movement
of pcpn will occur mainly after 06z Sun, even held off with
VCSH. Winds generally N-NE this period 2 to 6 kt inland
terminals and 4 to 11 kt at the coastal terminals. The hier end
of the range to occur during daylight hrs.

Extended Outlook...Possible periodic MVFR/IFR restrictions,
mainly coastal terminals late Saturday night thru Sun due to
clouds and light pcpn. Otherwise, VFR to dominate.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
SCA raised for the ILM NC Waters only this period due to
conditions breach both frequent g25 kt and the appearance of 6
foot seas off Cape Fear. The sfc pg to tighten this period due
to ridging inland and the sfc trof offshore. Could observe waves
of lows moving along it as a mid-level closed low offshore from
the SE Coast lifts northward. No definitive low to concentrate
on. Nevertheless, N-NE winds will dominate while seas build to 3
to 5 ft except up to 6 ft off Cape Fear. Dominate periods will
run 4 to 7 seconds...but there will be an underlying small NE-
ENE 13 second period swell.

Sunday through Wednesday:
Small Craft Advisory conditions should start to drop off
throughout the day on Sunday, with a decrease in both winds and
seas. Gusts drop below 20kts by Sunday night. NNE winds through
Tuesday become easterly by Tuesday night, and eventually
southerly by Wednesday, with speeds gradually decreasing
throughout. Seas 2-3ft at the coast, with 4-5ft waves further
from shore Sunday and Monday. Seas eventually level out at 2-4ft
everywhere by Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB