Alert archive / North Carolina / Beach Hazards Statements in 2022

Beach Hazards Statement 40, NWS Wilmington, NC

September 28, 2022Brunswick County, New Hanover County, Pender County, North Carolina; Georgetown County, Horry County, South Carolina

NWS Wilmington, NC issued this beach hazards statement at Sep 28, 2022, 8:41 PM EDT for Brunswick County, New Hanover County, Pender County, North Carolina; Georgetown County, Horry County, South Carolina. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 28, 2022, 8:41 PM EDT (00:41 UTC)
Expired
Sep 29, 2022, 12:53 PM EDT
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Wilmington, NC

Counties Brunswick County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Pender County, NC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 3 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2022-09-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2022-09-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -69 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1645 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
112 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

191 
WHUS42 KILM 290041
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
841 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-291000-
/O.NEW.KILM.BH.S.0040.220929T0041Z-220930T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KILM.RP.S.0020.220929T1000Z-220930T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
841 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, strong north to south 
  longshore current. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip 
  currents expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Coastal Pender and Coastal New 
  Hanover Counties. In South Carolina, Coastal Horry and Coastal 
  Georgetown Counties.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Thursday 
  evening. For the High Rip Current Risk, from 6 AM EDT Thursday 
  through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away
  from shore into deeper water. Longshore currents can sweep
  swimmers and surfers into rip currents, piers, jetties, and
  other hazardous areas. It may sweep swimmers off their feet,
  making it difficult to return to shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

Caution should be used when in or near the water. Check with
lifeguards before entering the ocean for possible hazards you may
be swept into.

&&

$$

NCZ110-291000-
/O.NEW.KILM.BH.S.0040.220929T1000Z-220930T0000Z/
Coastal Brunswick-
841 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Strong north to south longshore current. There is also a
  Moderate Risk of rip currents expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Brunswick County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into
  rip currents, piers, jetties, and other hazardous areas. It may
  sweep swimmers off their feet, making it difficult to return to
  shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution should be used when in or near the water. Check with
lifeguards before entering the ocean for possible hazards you may
be swept into.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
996 
WHUS42 KILM 290244
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1044 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

NCZ110-290345-
/O.CAN.KILM.BH.S.0040.220929T1000Z-220930T0000Z/
Coastal Brunswick-
1044 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

$$

NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-291045-
/O.CON.KILM.BH.S.0040.000000T0000Z-220930T0000Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0020.220929T1000Z-220930T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
1044 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, Strong north to south 
  longshore current. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip 
  currents expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Coastal Pender and Coastal New 
  Hanover Counties. In South Carolina, Coastal Horry and Coastal 
  Georgetown Counties.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Thursday 
  evening. For the High Rip Current Risk, from 6 AM EDT Thursday 
  through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water. Longshore currents can sweep 
  swimmers and surfers into rip currents, piers, jetties, and 
  other hazardous areas. It may sweep swimmers off their feet, 
  making it difficult to return to shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

Caution should be used when in or near the water. Check with
lifeguards before entering the ocean for possible hazards you may
be swept into.

&&

$$
986 
WHUS42 KILM 290849
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
449 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-291700-
/O.NEW.KILM.SU.Y.0008.220929T1000Z-221001T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.Y.0082.220929T1300Z-220929T1700Z/
/O.CON.KILM.BH.S.0040.000000T0000Z-220930T0000Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0020.220929T1000Z-220930T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
449 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to
  10 feet expected in the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood
  Advisory, up to one foot of inundation above ground level
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
  For the Beach Hazards Statement, Strong north to south longshore
  current. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Coastal Pender and Coastal New 
  Hanover Counties. In South Carolina, Coastal Horry and Coastal 
  Georgetown Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 6 PM EDT Saturday. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM 
  EDT this afternoon. For the Beach Hazards Statement, through 
  this evening. For the High Rip Current Risk, through this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Low-lying roads and locations along the Intracoastal 
  Waterway and adjacent tidal creeks may observe minor coastal 
  flooding. Check with local officials for any road closures or 
  impacts. Causeways to and from local beaches will experience 
  moderate coastal flooding and become impassable. Low-lying 
  roads and locations along the Intracoastal Waterway and 
  adjacent tidal creeks will observe moderate coastal flooding. 
  Roadways and structures adjacent to ocean swashes may be 
  impacted. Check with local officials for the latest 
  information regarding coastal flood impacts and closures. 
  Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach 
  erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water. Longshore currents can sweep 
  swimmers and surfers into rip currents, piers, jetties, and 
  other hazardous areas. It may sweep swimmers off their feet, 
  making it difficult to return to shore.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Affected areas listed are based on 
  average tide conditions. Additional locations may experience 
  flooding during periods of heavy rainfall, high winds, or 
  other factors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

Caution should be used when in or near the water. Check with
lifeguards before entering the ocean for possible hazards you may
be swept into.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Springmaid Pier at Myrtle Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 7.0 ft, Moderate 8.5 ft, Major 10.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.4 ft, Moderate 2.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 29/11 AM     7.6        2.0        1.6       4-5     Minor    
 29/11 PM     7.5        1.9        2.2       6-7     Minor    
 30/11 AM     8.9        3.3        2.8        8     Moderate  
 01/12 AM     6.2        0.6        1.2       7-9      None    
 01/12 PM     6.4        0.8        0.4       4-5      None    
 02/01 AM     5.4       -0.2        0.6        3       None

Mercer Pier at Wrightsville Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 6.0 ft, Moderate 8.0 ft, Major 10.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 3.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 29/10 AM     6.6        2.1        1.5        5      Minor    
 29/11 PM     6.6        2.1        2.3       6-7     Minor    
 30/11 AM     7.3        2.8        2.2        7      Minor    
 30/11 PM     5.7        1.2        1.6       7-8      None    
 01/12 PM     6.0        1.5        0.9        5      Minor    
 02/12 AM     5.0        0.5        1.0       3-4      None

&&

$$

NCZ110-291700-
/O.NEW.KILM.SU.Y.0008.220929T1000Z-221001T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.Y.0082.220929T1300Z-220929T1700Z/
Coastal Brunswick-
449 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 4 to
  8 feet expected in the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood
  Advisory, up to one foot of inundation above ground level
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways.

* WHERE...Coastal Brunswick County.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 6 PM EDT Saturday. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM 
  EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Low-lying roads and locations along the Intracoastal 
  Waterway and adjacent tidal creeks may observe minor coastal 
  flooding. Check with local officials for any road closures or 
  impacts. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Affected areas listed are based on 
  average tide conditions. Additional locations may experience 
  flooding during periods of heavy rainfall, high winds, or 
  other factors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Mercer Pier at Wrightsville Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 6.0 ft, Moderate 8.0 ft, Major 10.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 3.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 29/10 AM     6.6        2.1        1.5        5      Minor    
 29/11 PM     6.6        2.1        2.3       6-7     Minor    
 30/11 AM     7.3        2.8        2.2        7      Minor    
 30/11 PM     5.7        1.2        1.6       7-8      None    
 01/12 PM     6.0        1.5        0.9        5      Minor    
 02/12 AM     5.0        0.5        1.0       3-4      None

&&

$$

NCZ107-291700-
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.Y.0082.220929T1500Z-220929T1800Z/
Inland New Hanover-
449 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways.

* WHERE...The lower Cape Fear River including downtown 
  Wilmington.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Portions of Battleship Road and USS North Carolina 
  Road observe minor coastal flooding up to one half foot in 
  depth. In downtown Wilmington, a block of Water Street 
  observes minor flooding up to one quarter foot in depth.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Affected areas listed are based on 
  average tide conditions. Additional locations may experience 
  flooding during periods of heavy rainfall, high winds, or 
  other factors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Cape Fear River at Wilmington
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.8 ft, Major 10.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 0.8 ft, Moderate 2.1 ft, Major 5.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 29/01 PM     5.9        1.2        1.0       N/A     Minor    
 30/01 AM     5.8        1.1        1.4       N/A     Minor    
 30/01 PM     6.6        1.9        1.7       N/A     Minor    
 01/02 AM     5.8        1.1        1.6       N/A     Minor    
 01/02 PM     5.6        0.9        0.8       N/A     Minor

&&

$$
dch
110 
WHUS42 KILM 291653
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1253 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-300200-
/O.CAN.KILM.CF.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-220929T1700Z/
/O.CAN.KILM.BH.S.0040.000000T0000Z-220930T0000Z/
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221001T2200Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0020.000000T0000Z-220930T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
1253 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to
  10 feet expected in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current 
  Risk, dangerous rip currents expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Coastal Pender and Coastal New 
  Hanover Counties. In South Carolina, Coastal Horry and Coastal 
  Georgetown Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 6 PM EDT Saturday. 
  For the High Rip Current Risk, until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

NCZ110-300200-
/O.CAN.KILM.CF.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-220929T1700Z/
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221001T2200Z/
Coastal Brunswick-
1253 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 4 to
  8 feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Brunswick County.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and
  localized beach erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

&&

$$

NCZ107-291800-
/O.CON.KILM.CF.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-220929T1800Z/
Inland New Hanover-
1253 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways.

* WHERE...The lower Cape Fear River including downtown 
  Wilmington.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Portions of Battleship Road and USS North Carolina 
  Road observe minor coastal flooding up to one half foot in 
  depth. In downtown Wilmington, a block of Water Street 
  observes minor flooding up to one quarter foot in depth.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Affected areas listed are based on 
  average tide conditions. Additional locations may experience 
  flooding during periods of heavy rainfall, high winds, or 
  other factors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Cape Fear River at Wilmington
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.8 ft, Major 10.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 0.8 ft, Moderate 2.1 ft, Major 5.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 29/01 PM     5.9        1.2        1.0       N/A     Minor    
 30/01 AM     5.8        1.1        1.4       N/A     Minor    
 30/01 PM     6.6        1.9        1.7       N/A     Minor    
 01/02 AM     5.8        1.1        1.6       N/A     Minor    
 01/02 PM     5.6        0.9        0.8       N/A     Minor    
 02/03 AM     4.9        0.2        0.8       N/A      None

&&

$$

IGB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Sep 28, 7:31 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 28, 7:31 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
731 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler air mass will spread over the area through Thursday.
Hurricane Ian, moving across Florida tonight, will potentially
bring significant rainfall, gusty winds, and some coastal
flooding to the Carolinas Friday and Friday night. Lingering
rain chances into early next week before cooler and drier air
moves in mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Tropical headlines with Hurricane Ian have been updated as of
5pm: Tropical Storm Warnings now in effect over all coastal
waters and coastal zones inc. all of Georgetown/Horry counties,
Tropical Storm Watches in effect for the other SC counties, and
a Storm Surge Watch in effect for SC coastal zones.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Preparations around here for Hurricane Ian are becoming more
obvious, with Tropical Storm Warnings now in effect for
Georgetown and central/coastal Horry Counties in SC, along with
their adjacent coastal waters. Meanwhile, a Gale Warning will go
into effect at 8 PM EDT this evening along the adjacent waters
to southeast North Carolina, stretching from Little River to
Surf City.

Though the headlines are more apparent, the forecast through
Thursday remains a little quieter and drier than one may think.
The forward speed of Ian is creeping along at only 9 mph, and is
expected to slow down. Still, moisture will be on the rise, and
the cloud deck, currently at 20,000-25,000ft, will lower
significantly.

Northeasterly flow persists, with gusts building up to 30-35
mph by late Thursday morning. This stout flow keeps temperatures
cool again, with lows tonight in the mid 50s, and highs
Thursday in the lower 70s. Dewpoints are expectedly on the rise,
ranging from the mid 50s inland to near 60 at the coast.

Finally, outer bands from Ian may start to push towards the
coast by Thursday afternoon. Bulk of the rain remains beyond
this forecast period, though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As Hurricane Ian exits western Florida Thursday night and
emerges over the western Atlantic as a strong tropical storm,
northeast winds will begin to increase as pressure gradient
tightens between Ian and strong high pressure to the north. Will
also see rain chances increasing Thursday night with moderate
rainfall expected across coastal counties by early Friday
morning.

The worst conditions are expected Friday through Friday night
as Ian approaches the GA/SC coastline before making a second
landfall late Friday as a strong tropical storm. A Tropical
Storm warning is in effect for coastal northeast SC. Gusts to 45
mph possible Friday and Friday night, especially for southern
areas. Widespread 3-6" expected during the period as deep
moisture wraps around east side of Ian, with locally higher
amounts expected. Flash flooding will be possible, particularly
near low-lying and other locations prone to flooding. Isolated
tornadoes are also a threat Friday into Friday night east of
I-95, though will depend on track of Ian. Will note there
remains some uncertainty on location of this second landfall,
and a shift to north/east or south/west could increase or
decrease our impacts respectively.

Increased onshore fetch between high to the north and Ian will
create rough surf and minor beach erosion for the short term
period, along with coastal flooding. Refer to tides/coastal
flooding section below for additional information.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ian is expected to weaken quickly over land Friday night, and
linger over the western Carolinas as a tropical depression
through Sunday. As such conditions improve greatly Saturday
morning. A dry slot makes its way around the east side of the
storm on Saturday and very dry air advects in above 700mb. Have
lowered pops a bit Saturday to trend towards a drier solution,
but kept chance of rain in the forecast due to uncertainty and
lingering depression inland. Dry slot erodes some on Sunday as
increased moisture to the west expands into the area, though
PWATs remain around 1.5" or less.

Lingering upper level vorticity and weak surface low from
remnants of Ian get picked up by a trough early next week and
move offshore to the northeast. Chance of rain Monday before
forecast dries into midweek as northerly winds develop around
building high pressure to the northwest. In general, temps will
run near normal this weekend before cooling to slightly below
normal for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Ceilings will
gradually lower in time as moisture from Ian makes its way
north. Significant flight restrictions and possibly even wind
shear will be possible by this time or a little later tomorrow
night.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings start to infiltrate Thursday
afternoon and evening. MVFR and IFR restrictions really settle
in by late Thursday into Friday, as the remnants of Hurricane
Ian bring heavy rain through Saturday. Forecast seems to improve
faster than initially thought, so VFR may return by Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the
adjacent coastal waters to northeast South Carolina, ranging
from the South Santee River to Little River. Meanwhile, a Gale
Warning will go into effect at 8 PM EDT this evening along the
adjacent coastal waters to southeast North Carolina, ranging
from Little River to Surf City. Stout northeasterly flow
continues, with winds gusts up to 35-40kts at times. Seas
currently 3-5ft, but will rapidly escalate to 6-10ft Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...Hazardous marine conditions
will be ongoing Thursday night and expected to linger through
late Friday for strong winds and through Saturday for elevated
seas as Hurricane Ian emerges over the western Atlantic late
Thursday and approaches the GA/SC coastlines on Friday. Wind
gusts over the coastal waters peak around 40-48 kt Thursday
night through Friday evening, expanding from south to north.
Wave heights of 8-11 ft forecasted for same period.

As Ian moves inland late Friday, winds over the waters will
improve quickly. By Saturday morning, south winds 20-25 kts will
prevail with seas slowly lowering. Current forecast has sub-SCA
conditions developing Saturday night with southwest winds 10-15
kts and seas 3- 5 ft. As the remnant low from Ian moves
offshore to the northeast early next week and high pressure
builds to the northwest, SW winds and 3-4 seas Sunday will
become northeasterly with 2-3 ft seas Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High tides continue to increase, WB already briefly meeting
minor thresholds for the morning high tide and it will continue
to do so. This has nothing yet to do with Ian but rather the
huge high to our north and the fetch on it SE periphery. On
Thursday both high tides appear to reach minor thresholds as
well as on Friday. This will begin to hold true for SC as well
as well into Friday as anomalies grow. It is not certain at
this time whether this will be handled with Coastal Flood
Advisories or Storm Surge products as we collab with NHC this
afternoon. The Cape Fear River is not expected to experience
coastal flooding.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039.
     Storm Surge Watch for SCZ054-056.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108-110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...IGB/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 28, 8:39 PM EDT, 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

NCZ107-300045-
Inland New Hanover-
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hurricane Ian will pass over Florida tonight and Thursday, moving
off the northeast Florida coast into the Atlantic Thursday evening
and then moving back onshore near the Georgia/South Carolina border
Friday evening. This will spread heavy rain northward across the
Carolinas, especially on Friday. Flooding and even an isolated
tornado are possible. Wind gusts as high as 45 mph possible.

High tides should produce coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear
River from Wilmington southward through late week as Ian tracks up
from Florida.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ110-300045-
Coastal Brunswick-
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.
   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-300045-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.
   Tropical Storm Warning.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ054-056-300045-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.
   Storm Surge Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.
   Storm Surge Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-300045-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-300045-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-300045-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hurricane Ian will pass over Florida tonight and Thursday, moving
off the northeast Florida coast into the Atlantic Thursday evening
and then moving back onshore near the Georgia/South Carolina border
Friday evening. This will spread heavy rain northward across the
Carolinas, especially on Friday. Flooding and even an isolated
tornado are possible. Wind gusts as high as 45 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ055-058-059-300045-
Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
839 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 28, 8:41 PM EDTRip Current StatementILMNew Hanover, Pender23 hr
Sep 29, 4:49 AM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryILMBrunswick, New Hanover, Pender9 hr
Sep 29, 4:49 AM EDTHigh Surf AdvisoryILMBrunswick, New Hanover, Pender52 hr
Sep 29, 11:09 AM EDTHurricane WarningILMBrunswick30 hr
Sep 29, 11:09 AM EDTStorm Surge WarningILMBrunswick33 hr
Sep 29, 4:08 PM EDTFlood WatchILMBladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Robeson27 hr
Sep 29, 5:07 PM EDTHurricane WatchILMNew Hanover, Pender24 hr
Sep 29, 7:34 PM EDTRip Current StatementILMBrunswick, New Hanover, Pender25 hr
Sep 29, 10:23 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningILMDarlington, Florence44 hr
Sep 29, 10:23 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningILMFlorence, Marion21 days

Nearby

Beach Hazards Statements in North Carolina, 2022Beach Hazards Statements in South Carolina, 2022Every beach hazards statement in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.