Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Widely scattered showers and a few storms continue across central
KS, associated with some very weak mid level moisture transport.
This is located just ahead of a weak cold frontal boundary sagging
south into central KS.

For the late afternoon hours, expect the  north central KS cold
front to slowly shift S-SE, with some meager instability around 500-
1000 J/kg expected to be located along it. Expecting the atmosphere
to slowly become uncapped late this afternoon, for a chance of
scattered surface based convection, probably after 21z and certainly
by 00z.  Bulk shear values associated with the NW flow regime are
fairly impressive for this time of year, around 35 to 40 kts, with
the NW flow leading to fairly decent directional shear as well. So
even with the limited instability, could still see a few strong to
marginally severe storms, with quarter size hail and wind gusts to
60 mph the main concerns. Expect areas along and south highway 50 to
have the best chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, as the
frontal boundary drops south into south central KS by this evening.

Think this convection will be diurnally driven, and begin to wane
with the loss of the afternoon heating, but could see a few of the
strongest storms linger into the late evening hours across southern
KS.

Could see a possible uptick in the shower and thunderstorms over
southern KS, late tonight, as the frontal boundary lingers over
southern KS, with weak low level moisture transport expected over
the top of the boundary. Not expecting widespread showers, but
certainly a possible increase in coverage.

Expect counties along the KS/OK border to continue to have a chance
of showers and some embedded thunder on Sat, as the frontal boundary
makes slow progress into northern OK. Expect a more widespread heavy
rainfall chance across the panhandle of TX and most of OK on Sat, as
monsoonal moisture over the SW US, drifts east-northeast across OK
for Sat afternoon/evening. But, unfortunately, expect most of this
activity to stay south of the forecast area through Sunday.

Models suggest the forecast area will stay dry and seasonal for
Sunday through Mon, as the lingering heavy rainfall chances in OK,
slowly shift southeast into the Ark/La/Tex region.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Medium range models suggest that the NW flow pattern will continue
to dominate the weather pattern through the middle of next week.
This will lead to dry and seasonal conditions continuing for the
area with highs in the upper 80 to around 90.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

A frontal boundary is stretched across the region this afternoon
with some isolated thunderstorms along it. This thunderstorm
activity will remain fairly isolated which will keep the
chances of thunderstorms on station down. As such, VCTS was used
in the KHUT and KICT TAFs in the first 12 hours of the TAF. KCNU
and KSLN have thunder on station due to higher amounts of focus in
these areas. This thunderstorm activity may be locally strong but
do not expect the higher winds during the night just heavy rain.
After the front passes, the skies will again be VFR and winds will
be light and variable.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  89  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
Hutchinson      63  89  64  89 /  30  10  10  10
Newton          64  88  63  88 /  30  10  10  10
ElDorado        64  88  64  87 /  30  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   66  90  68  87 /  30  20  20  30
Russell         61  88  61  89 /  20  10  10  10
Great Bend      61  87  62  88 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          62  88  61  88 /  30  10  10  10
McPherson       62  88  62  88 /  30  10  10  10
Coffeyville     67  92  68  89 /  30  30  30  30
Chanute         66  90  65  88 /  40  20  20  10
Iola            65  89  64  88 /  50  20  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    66  91  67  89 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
900 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
900 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the overnight
period. This thunderstorm activity is not expected to be severe but
there could be a few strong storms. The stronger storms will be
capable of nickel size hail and 50 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few thunderstorms will be possible Saturday into Saturday evening
across far southern and southeast Kansas. Severe storms are not
expected with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
819 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

KSZ033-200145-
Lincoln KS-
819 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Lincoln County
through 845 PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Lincoln, moving east at 35 mph. Another strong storm
was near Sylvan Grove.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln, Sylvan Grove, Beverly and Westfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 9793 3887 9793 3899 9843 3918 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 277DEG 31KT 3911 9815

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
825 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE EL DORADO          37.78N 96.81W
08/19/2022  M64 MPH          BUTLER             KS   AWOS

            EL DORADO AIRPORT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
847 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

KSZ033-048-200215-
Ellsworth KS-Lincoln KS-
847 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Lincoln
and northeastern Ellsworth Counties through 915 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Ellsworth, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Westfall.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 218 and 235.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 9793 3866 9793 3882 9827 3898 9816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 298DEG 24KT 3887 9813

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
933 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

KSZ033-048-200300-
Ellsworth KS-Lincoln KS-
933 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Lincoln
and northeastern Ellsworth Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 933 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Lincoln, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Westfall.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 222 and 235.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9793 3876 9793 3887 9825 3901 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 298DEG 24KT 3893 9815

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
954 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

KSZ048-049-200315-
Ellsworth KS-Saline KS-
954 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Ellsworth and southwestern Saline Counties through 1015 PM CDT...

At 953 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Brookville, or 11 miles northeast of Kanopolis,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salina, Brookville and Falun.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9812 3887 9808 3887 9783 3877 9769
      3861 9769 3861 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 308DEG 23KT 3882 9800

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1013 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

KSZ049-051-200345-
McPherson KS-Saline KS-
1013 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
McPherson and southwestern Saline Counties through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1012 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
just south of Brookville, or 14 miles east of Kanopolis, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lindsborg, Marquette, Assaria, Brookville, Smolan, Falun and
Bridgeport.

This includes Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 72 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9760 3853 9760 3853 9781 3864 9793
      3880 9793 3883 9786
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 315DEG 24KT 3872 9789

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL