Snow Squall Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
543 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 207 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Deep upper trough stretches from the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains. Extreme cold front is currently situated from
Northeast MO into Central OK and is just about to exit our
forecast area.

Mid level frontogenesis has allowed a band of heavier snow to
affect far northern KS/southern Nebraska over the last few hours
with this band now starting to progresses southeast. Further
south, the drizzle that was falling quickly went to snow as the
Arctic air plunged south. However, the bulk of the snowfall is
expected to come from this narrow band of heavier snow over the
next several hours. This band is expected to start affecting the
Hutch to Wichita area generally around 12z and southeast KS in the
14-16z time frame. With the strong winds, we should see the
heavier snow produce visibility in the 1/4-1/2sm range as it moves
through.

Strong winds will also make it difficult to measure snow today but
we are currently going with 2 to 3 inches from the Flint Hills
into southeast KS with a trace to 2 inches elsewhere.

We have already seen wind chills over central KS fall to -30 and
these readings will continue to spill south and even cool a few
more degrees. Even though winds will be on the decrease this
evening into Fri morning, these extreme wind chills will remain as
temps continue to fall. So current wind chill warning looks good.

By Fri afternoon, the deep upper low will be digging over the
Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley with strong northwest flow
over the Plains. Surface high is still forecast to slide east
across the forecast area Fri afternoon/night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

By Sat morning this storm system will be centered over western
Quebec with the trough encompassing all of the Eastern CONUS.
Surface ridge will remain situated over the area for Sat and Sat
night. Both ECMWF and GFS agree on diving a fast moving impulse
out of southern Saskatchewan and across eastern Nebraska and into
the Ozark region by Mon morning/afternoon. Right now will leave
the forecast dry with the thinking the better precip chances will
remain east of us. Starting Tue, the upper pattern will finally
start to flatten out which will start to get us back to more
seasonal temperatures. Most locations look to stay near or below
freezing until Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Poor aviation conditions this morning with snow/blowing snow
reducing visibilities to around 1/2mile at times with IFR cigs.
The snow will quickly move east across the area with rapidly
improving sky conditions, however northwest winds will remain
quite strong and gusty throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT     3  -4  14   2 /  80   0   0   0
Hutchinson       1  -6  13  -1 /  90   0   0   0
Newton           1  -6  11   0 /  90   0   0   0
ElDorado         1  -5  11   1 /  90   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD    5  -2  15   3 /  90   0   0   0
Russell         -1 -10  13  -6 /  40   0   0   0
Great Bend      -1  -9  13  -4 /  70   0   0   0
Salina           1  -7  12  -2 /  70   0   0   0
McPherson        1  -7  11  -2 /  90   0   0   0
Coffeyville     13  -2  14   2 /  90   0   0   0
Chanute          8  -4  11   1 /  90   0   0   0
Iola             6  -5  10   0 /  90   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    11  -3  12   2 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Wind Chill Warning until 1 PM CST Friday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ

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