Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Main challenge/concern is convective/severe potential the next
couple of days and also where locally heavy rain may fall. At
early afternoon, dry-line extended from east of KSLN to west of
KICT. With some exceptions, general short term models like
HRRR/earlier RAP, develop convection along the dry-line(DL)/cold
frontal merger in northeast Kansas southward along the DL toward
KICT in the 22-00z time frame. The RAP seems to have a better
grasp of short term dew points and resulting instability where
MLCape values of 2500-3000 j/kg should reside near peak heating in
the presence of 55-60 kts bulk shear. While better chances may
reside just northeast of the forecast area, chc20-40 PoPs remain
warranted along/just west of the turnpike corridor thru early this
evening. Primary severe hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds, though initial storms may have some tornado risk. That
said, chances look to ramp up a bit more later in the
evening/overnight across central Kansas, where cold front will
overtake the retreating DL. While becoming more elevated in
nature, increasing elevated moisture flux in the presence of
moderate instability should result in better convective coverage
with a few strong storms and some back-building into the veering
low level jet possible across central Kansas.

Main challenge later Tuesday is position of the effective cold
front which may become quasi-stationary for a time from east
central into south central Kansas. While diurnal heating in the
warm sector should yield better instability in excess of 3000 j/kg
of MLCape, bulk shear will not be as great, though the combo
sufficient for organized severe convection. The late morning RAP
was preferred over the NAM and GFS in depicting QPF into Tuesday
night, as the NAM seemed too far north and GFS too far south. This
would place potential for heavy rainfall in southern Kansas just
to the north of the effective frontal boundary, where the better
PWAT, elevated instability and elevated moisture flux convergence
look to reside Tuesday evening/night. The potential for elevated
showers and storms will continue through Wednesday with much
cooler temperatures across the area.

In short term, winds have subsided east of the DL and will allow
Wind Advisory to expire at 4 pm.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Modest westerly flow aloft will prevail across mid-America through
the weekend with weak perturbations emanating of the front range
across the area. The influence of a stronger trof and upper low
off the Pacific coast may result in gradual height falls over the
Rockies by early next week. Temperatures look to average closer to
seasonal climo with rather low confidence on precip/convective
chances thru these periods though will maintain rather low PoPs
for now.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Scattered strong to severe storms will affect south central Kansas
and the KICT terminal early this evening. A cold front will merge
with a dry line across central Kansas tonight with scattered
storms expected to develop further north across portions of
central Kansas. Low level wind shear will occur before the cold
frontal passage early tonight. Besides a wind shift, patchy MVFR
cigs are expected Tuesday morning across portions of south central
and southeast Kansas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  82  60  66 /  30  50  70  70
Hutchinson      63  80  58  64 /  40  30  60  60
Newton          66  79  59  65 /  40  40  60  60
ElDorado        69  82  60  66 /  30  60  80  70
Winfield-KWLD   71  86  63  69 /  20  60  80  70
Russell         55  81  53  63 /  20  10  30  60
Great Bend      57  80  54  62 /  20  10  40  60
Salina          61  81  56  65 /  60  20  40  60
McPherson       62  79  57  64 /  60  30  50  60
Coffeyville     73  86  65  74 /  10  30  80  70
Chanute         72  85  63  70 /  30  50  80  70
Iola            71  83  62  68 /  30  60  80  60
Parsons-KPPF    73  85  64  73 /  20  40  80  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
420 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-312130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
420 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms will be possible this evening along the dry-line
across portions of central and south central Kansas. These storms
will be capable of 2 inch diameter hail, damaging winds to 65 mph
and a tornado.

Later this evening and overnight, strong to severe storms will be
possible across central Kansas, mainly along and south of I-70 and
north of highway 50. These storms will be capable of nickel to
quarter size hail, wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall and minor lowland flooding is also possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe storms are possible again on Tuesday afternoon and early
evening, mainly across south central and southeast Kansas. The main
threats will be golf ball size hail and damaging winds to 60 mph.
However a tornado will be possible on the initial storms in the
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will also become a threat Tuesday
evening and Tuesday night across southern Kansas where some flooding
is possible.

Chances for thunderstorms will linger through Wednesday, mainly
across south central and southeast Kansas. While severe storms are
not expected, a couple of strong storms with small hail and locally
heavy rainfall will be possible.

There will be at least a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday
and Sunday. However, the risk for organized severe storms appears
low for now.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for portions of central and south
central Kansas early this evening, mainly east of a Hillsboro to
Kingman line, including greater Wichita.

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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