Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1142 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

A zonal flow regime is progged to continue for the next couple
of days with another subtle shortwave trough progged to move over
the area late in the day tomorrow. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
over the Central High Plains early this afternoon is progged to move
eastward along the NE/KS state line before emerging over the Middle
Mississippi Valley area this evening and tonight. A diffuse dryline
across western Kansas may provide a focus for a few storms but
confidence remains fairly low given how diffuse it is. Any activity
drifting eastward out of western KS may persist tonight as it moves
into central and eastern KS given stout H85 flow nosing into the
KS/OK state line area. Better chances for more widespread deep moist
convection may remain across northeast Kansas and this activity may
provide a glancing blow to our forecast area across portions of the
Flint Hills and portions of southeast KS although higher
probabilities are expected to remain north and east of our forecast
area. Damaging winds will be the primary threat although some large
hail and locally heavy rain may also be possible.

Another subtle shortwave trough is progged to move across the area
late in the day on Wed. Any convection developing across far western
Kansas is expected to remain west of the area although the effective
frontal boundary could become a focus for some diurnally driven
storms. Overnight convection will likely drive this boundary well
south of the area into portions of northeast OK so much if not all
of the area is expected to remain dry on Wed. Seasonable
temperatures are anticipated with highs in the mid 80s for most
areas.

Thu-Fri...A more robust mid/upper trough is progged to dig into the
Northern Rockies/Northern Plains on Thu. As low pressure deepens
across the Northern and Central Plains, southwesterly low level flow
will allow above normal temperatures to prevail with deeper mixing
and some drying of the pbl anticipated. Above normal temperatures
will prevail with highs in the low to mid 90s for much of the area.
A rogue storm may be possible along a diffuse dryline but
probabilities will remain too low to mention at this time. As this
robust mid/upper trough moves eastward, it will drive a cold front
south across the Central Plains late Thu night into early Friday. A
stable post-frontal regime is anticipated in the wake of the front
on Fri with a much drier and cooler airmass expected. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop along and in the wake of the cold front
across mainly southeast KS but there remains uncertainty in how
quickly the front will move across the area. A mid/upper trough will
move out of the Rockies Fri night into early Sat in the wake of the
front with some elevated storms possibly lingering across southeast
KS Friday night as we see some low level moisture transport/elevated
cape lingering in a zone of mid-level warm air advection ahead of
this trough.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Below normal temperatures will prevail at the start of the period
and any lingering light precipitation on Sat should come to an
end late in the day. Highs on Sat will only reach the low 60s for
many areas while lower 70s are anticipated on Sun. Another
shortwave trough is progged to move over the area on Monday
bringing increasing chances for precipitation. Clouds and showers
may keep highs from reaching 70 in some locations with breezy
east/southeast winds returning the area. Shortwave ridging may
return by Tue with dry weather conditions and seasonable highs in
the upper 70s/lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

A line of storms will cause MVFR conditions for sites KHUT, KICT,
and KCNU from 6z to 10z. VFR conditions are expected behind storms.

Storms will progress southeastward and should push through all the
TAF sites by 11z. An outflow boundary out ahead of the storms will
lead to variable wind directions and gust up to 45kt. Once the
storms clear, weather should remain mostly calm but some gusty winds
of 20 to 25kts will be possible from 14z through 21z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  86  62  93 /  80   0   0   0
Hutchinson      65  85  59  93 /  80   0   0   0
Newton          65  84  61  92 /  80  10   0   0
ElDorado        66  83  62  90 /  80  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   68  87  64  92 /  20  10  10   0
Russell         61  85  58  96 /  90   0   0   0
Great Bend      61  85  59  95 /  90   0   0   0
Salina          64  85  59  95 /  90   0   0   0
McPherson       64  84  59  93 /  80   0   0   0
Coffeyville     69  88  66  88 /  20  10  10   0
Chanute         68  86  64  88 /  40  10  10   0
Iola            67  84  63  88 /  50  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    69  87  65  88 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CRW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1009 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-190315-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1009 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A complex of thunderstorms will continue to impact central and much
of northeast Kansas late this evening and move southeastward into
portions of south central and southeast Kansas overnight. Severe
storms will be capable of quarter to half dollar sized hail and
damaging winds of 60 to 75 mph. Locally heavy rainfall could also
result in flooding of low-lying rural and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances will return on Friday evening across the area.
While widespread severe weather appears unlikely, a handful of
strong storms are possible.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms may impact the area
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1139 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

KSZ052-180515-
Marion KS-
1139 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Marion County
through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1138 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marion, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsboro, Marion, Peabody, Florence, Lincolnville, Lehigh, Pilsen
and Marion Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
south central, central and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9682 3835 9684 3811 9684 3809 9713
      3814 9716 3817 9715 3817 9718 3845 9734
      3852 9686 3852 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 261DEG 32KT 3830 9707

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

KSZ069-083-092-093-180515-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-
1150 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Cowley,
Sedgwick, southwestern Butler and northern Sumner Counties through
1215 AM CDT...

At 1149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
winds over Eisenhower National Airport, or 6 miles northwest of
Haysville, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, Andover, Haysville, Augusta, Park City, Valley
Center, Bel Aire, Mulvane, Goddard, Rose Hill, Maize, Clearwater,
Cheney, Douglass, Benton, Garden Plain, Downtown Wichita, Kechi and
Eastborough.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 0 and 16.
 Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 30 and 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. There will
be little or no rain with this wind.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 9781 3788 9717 3746 9673 3739 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 324DEG 29KT 3762 9744

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1152 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

KSZ067-068-083-180515-
Reno KS-Harvey KS-Sedgwick KS-
1152 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Reno,
northern Sedgwick and Harvey Counties through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Burrton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Park City, Valley Center, Maize, Halstead, North Newton,
Sedgwick, Colwich, Burrton, Mount Hope, Whitewater, Andale, Bentley,
Newton Airport, Cheney Lake and Cheney State Park.

This includes Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 16 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9781 3806 9771 3808 9715 3787 9715
      3766 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 282DEG 28KT 3800 9767

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND GST     WICHITA EISENHOWER NATI 37.66N 97.44W
05/17/2022  M58 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   ASOS

&&

KEVIN.DARMOFAL