Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Bottom line up front:  Morning storms, moving across eastern KS
(skirting the Ern edge of the area).  Renewed afternoon convection?
Additional storm chances Mon night through early Tue.

This morning-Tonight:
Pesky thunderstorms continue to fester over southeast KS along the
northern edge of a complex of storms moving across NE OK, at this
time, but think most of this activity will drift southeast forecast
area over the next few hours. Attention then turns to northern KS,
as a weak shortwave currently moving out of the Rockies into the
northern plains will continue to make progress to the SE. Just ahead
of this shortwave, increased moisture will lead convection moving
into NE KS and dropping to the SE. Latest Hi-rez model trends
suggest that this convection will continue for a good portion of the
morning hours, as it drops southeastward towards SW MO, skirting the
NERN edge of the forecast area, along a line from KSLN to KCNU. This
scattered complex of storms will drop into SE KS this morning, and
could grow upscale during the late morning hours, as it runs into a
more unstable airmass, with bulk shear of 45-50kts. This could lead
to a very large hail threat across SE KS late this morning through
midday. So will go with the highest pops across SE KS this morning.
Damaging winds are also a concern, with any bowing segments.

For this afternoon, Some uncertainty on what will happen with the
main synoptic backdoor cold front that is expected to trail just to
the north of the morning complex of storms over ern KS. The
uncertainty lies on whether there will be renewed convection along
this boundary, as it pushes into southern KS for the late afternoon
hours. Current thinking is that there is a chance of renewed
convection for areas along and east of the KS Turnpike for the late
afternoon hours, as the synoptic front drops south.  So will keep
some pops in for this chance. Some uncertainty on how much
convergence there will be for widespread convection, but isolated to
scattered storms look possible.

If any convection can develop, think most it will drop S-SE into NE
OK, during the early evening hours, with cooler drier air moving
into the region for late this evening and tonight with clearing
skies in most locations by the late evening hours.

Mon-Tue:
An active weather pattern looks to continue for the beginning of the
week. Expect a quiet and seasonal temperature day on Mon, as weak
ridging moves across the area. Models are in pretty good agreement
with a mid level shortwave moving across the Rockies and ejecting
out into the central plains from Monday night into Tuesday. Ahead of
this system low level moist upslope flow from southeast winds look
to destabilize atmosphere over western Kansas Monday
afternoon/evening. So expecting thunderstorm development over the
high plains, and then potentially growing upscale as a forward
propagating complex of storms into central/eastern Kansas late
Monday night from increasing moisture transport from the low level
jet. Some uncertainty how far east the storms will stay strong to
severe, but think scattered showers and a few storms are possible
Mon night into early on Tue for most locations across the forecast
area.

A second upper level wave looks to move eastward across the northern
plains on Tuesday with the chance of another complex of storms
moving east-southeast across northern KS, and into central KS
Tuesday night.

Some uncertainty on the track or severity of both the Mon night and
Tue night systems, but bulk shear and instability suggests some
strong to severe storms with the complexes.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Surface high pressure looks to build over Kansas on Wednesday
followed by returning deep Gulf of Mexico moisture on Thursday, as
medium range models show a well developed upper level wave moving
across the northern plains. This would result in dry weather for
Kansas this period with storms possibly returning by the end
of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

VFR Conditions are expected through the period.

Thunderstorms are expected today for sites KSLN and KCNU. Currently
have thunder in both TAFs. At this time storms should stay east of
KICT but can't rule out a rogue storm. Also can't rule out brief
MVFR for area that get storms. Otherwise, winds will shift from
northeast to southeast to southwest and then to the north behind a
front today. Gusty winds of 25kt will be possible this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  55  80  60 /  20   0   0  20
Hutchinson      82  52  80  59 /  10   0   0  20
Newton          81  53  79  58 /  20   0   0  20
ElDorado        82  54  78  58 /  30   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   87  54  79  59 /  30   0   0  20
Russell         79  50  82  58 /  10   0   0  20
Great Bend      80  50  82  58 /  10   0   0  20
Salina          78  51  82  58 /  40   0   0  30
McPherson       80  51  80  57 /  20   0   0  30
Coffeyville     84  55  79  58 /  50  10   0  20
Chanute         82  55  78  58 /  60  10   0  20
Iola            80  54  78  57 /  60  10   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    82  55  79  58 /  50  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CRW

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