Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7 DAYS:

* Thunderstorm chances this afternoon-evening generally southeast
  quarter of Kansas.

* Isolated storm chances Saturday afternoon-evening generally
  along/west of I-135.

* Storm chances late Saturday night-Sunday northern into eastern
  Kansas.

* Periodic off-and-on storm chances Monday night through next week.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...Latest observational analysis in tandem
with short- term hi-res guidance supports the potential for
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon-evening,
mainly across south-central Kansas along/west of the Flint Hills,
with these chances possibly spreading into southeast Kansas later
this evening and tonight. The primary focus for convective
initiation is a weak/stalled frontal zone draped southwest to
northeast across the area. Overall large-scale forcing is
relatively weak, and possibly even slightly subsident in wake of
upper shortwave axis shifting just east of the area. So not
entirely confident on coverage of storms or their ability to
sustain themselves. However, if storms are able to form and
sustain themselves (as the latest deterministic HRRR and WoFS
suggests), a favorable combination of instability and effective
deep layer shear would favor large hail and damaging winds with
the strongest activity.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm
late Saturday afternoon- evening, mainly along/west of I-135, as
a stalling cold- frontal zone attempts to ooze in from the north.
Forcing remains quite weak and instability will probably be less
than today, so suspect chances will be fairly low for most.
However, if a storm is able to develop and sustain itself, large
hail and damaging winds will be possible, mainly due to the decent
deep layer directional shear.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...Thinking higher chances for thunderstorms
will be late Saturday night into Sunday, as the synoptic setup
appears to favor a forward-propagating thunderstorm complex moving
southeast across Nebraska, and into northern/northeast Kansas,
and possibly eventually into eastern Kansas, which could just
barely clip east/northeast portions of the forecast area. The
primary threats with this storm complex would be damaging winds.
If this storm complex lays out a big outflow boundary, it will
likely drive the synoptic front south fairly fast and end
additional storm chances by peak heating Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

After relatively quiet weather Sunday evening through Monday,
global model consensus supports periodic off-and-on storm chances
Monday night or Tuesday, through mid to late next week, as a pair
of shortwaves traverses Mid-America, and the frontal zone lifts
back north across the forecast area. Best storm chances during
this period will likely be during the late afternoon-evening
through early morning time. While instability should be sufficient
for stout updrafts, overall mid-upper flow and associated deep
layer shear will likely be modest at best. Consequently, while a
handful of strong to severe storms are possible during this
period, the threat for widespread and/or higher-end severe
weather appears low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

VFR conditions are generally expected for this TAF period. There
is a slight chance for some thunderstorm activity at the KHUT,
KICT and KCNU terminals but the current dynamics are highly
"mixed" making the certainty of thunderstorms at these terminals
difficult at best. Currently, the areal coverage of any activity
this evening seems rather low at this time so kept the thunder out
of the TAFs for now. KCNU has the best chance for some
precipitation but pulled back the thunder possibilities to showers
only as there may not be enough push to get thunder going. By
morning, VFR conditions will reign with light winds for the
remainder of the TAF period.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  87  62  86 /  30  10  20  30
Hutchinson      56  87  60  84 /  20  20  20  20
Newton          57  86  60  84 /  30  10  20  30
ElDorado        59  86  61  85 /  30   0  10  40
Winfield-KWLD   60  87  62  88 /  30   0  20  30
Russell         52  86  56  83 /   0  20  20  10
Great Bend      53  86  58  84 /   0  20  20  10
Salina          54  88  58  84 /  10  20  20  30
McPherson       55  86  59  83 /  20  20  20  30
Coffeyville     62  87  62  87 /  30   0  10  40
Chanute         62  86  62  85 /  30   0  10  40
Iola            61  85  60  83 /  30   0  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    62  87  62  86 /  30   0  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ELM

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