Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
249 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Current activity over central Nebraska/western Kansas was elevated
and driven by forcing from right entrance region of upper
jetstream. This activity will become surface based as environment
ahead has eroded SBCIN due to strong daytime heating. Meanwhile,
a cold front over western Nebraska will push southeast towards
central Kansas by early this evening. Convergence along this
boundary should cause surface based storms to re-develop over
northwest Kansas later this afternoon. This activity will then
move into central Kansas around 7pm this evening, and continue
marching eastward overnight. Upper jetstream alignment(right
entrance region) favors a quick evolution to linear storm mode.
The combination of instability, wind shear aloft, and high DCAPE
values supports some severe storms with damaging winds being the
main risk. Could also see some large hail given steeper mid-level
lapse rates up to half dollar size. However the current elevated
activity could reduce the instability for these storms to work
with, thus lowering the severe risk. If strong to severe storms
can materialize the main risk area would be over central Kansas.

Heading into Friday afternoon surface convergence looks less defined
but atmosphere will become fairly unstable east of the Kansas
Turnpike. Models show a weak upper level wave moving across Kansas
in the afternoon, and if this can induce some low level convergence
then isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible with a few
strong to severe storms possible. Saturday looks to be quiet for
much of the day, however GFS model tries to generate some activity
over central Kansas in the afternoon with majority of the other
models generating storms late Saturday night into Sunday along
700mb baroclinic zone.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Models in decent agreement with a upper level shortwave moving
across the Rockies and ejecting out into the central plains from
Monday night into Tuesday. Ahead of this system low level moist
upslope flow from southeast winds look to destabilize atmosphere over
western Kansas Monday afternoon. This would be the most likely area
for storms to develop, then potentially grow upscale as a forward
propagating MCS into central/eastern Kansas late Monday night from
increasing moisture transport from low level jet. A second upper
level wave looks to move eastward across the northern plains on
Tuesday with a possible repeat event Tuesday night, however there
could be mesoscale disruptive outflow boundary effects from Monday
nights activity which lowers our forecast confidence for Tuesday.

Surface high pressure looks to build over Kansas on Wednesday
followed by returning deep Gulf of Mexico moisture on Thursday, as
long range models show a well developed upper level wave moving
across the northern plains. This would result in dry weather for
Kansas this period with storms possibly returning on Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Gusty south winds will prevail ahead of a dry-line and cold front
this afternoon. Scattered strong to severe convection is likely
this evening just northwest of the forecast area with some of the
storms moving across central Kansas during the late evening. The
main impacts will be shifting and gusty outflow winds. Some MVFR
cigs are expected along the southward sagging front and outflow
boundary by early Friday morning across south central and
southeast Kansas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  83  59  85 /  30  10  10  10
Hutchinson      61  82  55  85 /  30  10  10  10
Newton          63  82  58  85 /  40  10  10  10
ElDorado        66  83  60  83 /  40  20  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   66  85  60  85 /  30  20  10  10
Russell         55  81  51  85 /  60   0   0  10
Great Bend      56  82  52  85 /  50   0   0  10
Salina          61  83  54  87 /  50  10  10  10
McPherson       61  81  55  85 /  40  10  10  10
Coffeyville     67  86  63  85 /  30  30  40  10
Chanute         68  85  62  85 /  30  30  40  10
Iola            67  84  61  84 /  30  30  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    67  85  62  85 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KED

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

KSZ032-122100-
Russell KS-
325 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Russell
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Catherine, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gorham, Paradise and Waldo.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 175 and 178.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Also be
ready encase the thunderstorms intensify, and if a warning is issued
for northwest Russell county.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9872 3879 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 218DEG 38KT 3891 9919

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JAKUB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
403 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

KSZ032-122130-
Russell KS-
403 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Russell
County through 430 PM CDT...

At 402 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Natoma, or 13 miles northeast of Emmeram, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Paradise and Waldo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9876 3897 9894 3899 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 218DEG 38KT 3910 9897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JAKUB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
428 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

KSZ032-033-122200-
Russell KS-Lincoln KS-
428 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Lincoln and
Russell Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 427 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a rapidly developing
strong thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Dorrance, or 10 miles east
of Russell, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Russell, Wilson, Lucas, Sylvan Grove, Luray, Dorrance, Milberger,
Bunker Hill, Waldo, Ash Grove, Russell Airport, Wilson State Park and
Wilson Lake.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 181 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Wilson Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9832 3888 9835 3888 9848 3870 9849
      3870 9897 3913 9887 3913 9849 3922 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 208DEG 46KT 3894 9868

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

METZGER