Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
419 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Highlights:

1) Chances for showers and storms this evening

2) Warmer with possible record highs given values near 100 degrees

Change: Added precipitation chances further south tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated into the
evening. Short term models indicate a few cells will develop but are
inconsistently showing what has happened with the afternoon
activity. The exact location is uncertain, and possible convection
along the dryline with the low level jet could result in
precipitation further south than previously anticipated. Thus slight
chances have been added across southern Kansas. A strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out; however, the afternoon activity showed
the struggle for severe storms in the south. Thus the higher
chances for severe storms is off to the north as highlighted in
SPC's latest convective outlook.

High pressure is anticipated to build in tonight/Sunday and stick
around through mid week. The result will be an increase in warm air
advection aka a warm up with high temperatures back around the
century mark. Given the time of year, records are at stake for all
sites. Check out the climate section for more information. Heat
indices are calculated to be around 100 degrees. Breezy conditions
are anticipated on Sunday with speeds of 15 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Highlights:

1) Cooler end to the week

2) Slight chances for showers and storms Wed in NC & SC KS

3) Slight chances for showers and storms early Fri in NC KS

There is a subtle feature that will move from the Panhandles into
central Kansas on Wednesday. This could result in development of
showers during the day in central portions of Kansas. Given the
subtlety of this feature, only slight chances are anticipated at
this time. Currently expectations are for a cool down on Thursday
with high temperatures dropping to the mid 70s in the north to the
upper 80s in the south.

A trough tracks onshore late Wednesday/Thursday and will move
eastward into the Northern Plains later Thursday/Friday. There is a
slight chance for showers in north central Kansas. Temperatures are
expected to range from the lower 80s to lower 90s with the higher
values in the south. This could change depending on the track of the
system. Some uncertainties exist in the forecast for the end of the
week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

VFR conditions will dominate the region for the most part. There
are some light of showers and thunderstorms developing across the
region and may affect the KHUT and KICT terminals for a few hours
this afternoon. Otherwise, this will not last long and VFR
conditions will dominate. The only other issue that may develop
this afternoon and into the overnight will be some LLWS at KSLN.
This may move into the KHUT as well but kept it out of this cycle
as it appears it will remain to the north.

Metzger

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Record temperatures are possible in the coming days (Sunday-Tuesday)
with a warm airmass in place. Below is a break down of the forecast
and respective record. Mainly the potential will be in the record
high category, but there is a possibility for record high low
temperatures (warm lows) for a couple of sites on Tuesday. Chanute
is approaching its latest 100 degree or greater temperature reading
which occurred on September 20th in 1954.

Sunday (9/18):

Record highs

Chanute - Forecast:98  Record: 99 in 1931

Russell - Forecast:101  Record: 100 in 1954

Salina - Forecast:100  Record: 102 in 1931

Wichita - Forecast:99  Record: 100 in 1997

Monday (9/19):

Record highs

Chanute - Forecast:101  Record: 100 in 1954

Russell - Forecast:98  Record: 100 in 2017

Salina - Forecast:98   Record: 99 in 1931

Tuesday (9/20):

Record highs

Chanute - Forecast: 102  Record: 101 in 1954

Russell - Forecast:100  Record: 96 in 2016

Salina - Forecast:100   Record: 97 in 1935

Wichita - Forecast:99  Record: 99 in 1980

Record high low (warm low) temperatures

Russell - Forecast:71  Record: 92 in 1970

Salina - Forecast:74 Record: 75 in 1948

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  98  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      72  99  71  99 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          72  97  72  98 /  20   0   0   0
ElDorado        72  97  71  98 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      70  99  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          72  99  71 100 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       72  98  71  98 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     73  98  72 100 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         72  98  73 100 /  10  10   0   0
Iola            72  97  72  99 /  20  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  98  73 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...ELM
CLIMATE...VJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
533 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182245-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
533 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Evening into Tonight

Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this evening. There could be a few
strong to severe storms with ping pong ball sized hail and wind
gusts to 65 mph. The best threat for severe weather will be across
north central and northeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Temperatures and associated heat indices are expected to return to
near 100 degrees from Sunday to Wednesday.

Given dry conditions and breezy winds, there is a brief window of
very high grassland fire danger on Sunday afternoon for Kingman
County.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
606 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

KSZ033-172330-
Lincoln KS-
606 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Lincoln
County through 630 PM CDT...

At 606 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lincoln, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln, Beverly, Barnard and Westfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 9793 3892 9821 3906 9834 3922 9809
      3922 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 235DEG 37KT 3904 9819

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER

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