Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1248 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7 DAYS:

* A few isolated showers/storms possible this morning central
  Kansas, and far southern Kansas this afternoon-evening.

* Somewhat better storm chances Friday afternoon-evening central
  Kansas. Widespread meaningful rainfall is unlikely.

* Seasonable temperatures the next several days.

An upper shortwave approaching from the northwest amidst increasing
deep moisture and associated instability may support a few
showers/storms across the region today through this evening...first
this morning across central Kansas, and then again this afternoon
and evening over far southern/southeast Kansas near the Oklahoma
border. Combination of instability and deep layer shear is marginal,
so not expecting strong or severe storms, although brief heavy rain
is possible. Activity should remain fairly isolated/hit-or-miss, so
most locations should remain dry.

Thinking there is a slightly better chance for thunderstorms Friday
late afternoon-evening, mainly across central Kansas, as an
additional cold front/upper shortwave combo approaches from the
northwest. Storm coverage will probably only be widely scattered at
best, so once again most locations should remain dry. Increasing
moisture/instability and modest flow aloft may support a few strong
to marginally severe storms Friday late afternoon-evening across
central Kansas, capable of dime-quarter size hail and 50-65 mph
winds.

Isolated hit-or-miss storm chances may linger through Saturday
across southeast Kansas, in vicinity of best combination of weak
forcing, deep moisture, and instability, but once again most
locations should remain dry, and severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

Mostly dry weather should prevail Sunday through at least mid next
week, although cannot rule out a stray shower/storm or two over far
southeast Kansas each afternoon-early evening, closest to deeper
moisture. There are big differences between the global model suite
regarding the large-scale upper pattern by mid-late next week, so
forecast confidence is low from Tuesday-Wednesday and beyond,
especially regarding rain chances. The latest GFS supports
increasing precipitation chances by Wednesday night-Thursday, with
the ECMWF holding off on these chances until next weekend.
Nevertheless, despite these differences, confidence is high in
seasonable temperatures prevailing through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

Upper disturbance over the Southern Plains will graze southeast
Kansas late this afternoon and evening, giving southeast Kansas a
chance for showers and storms. Most activity should stay south of
KCNU, though plan to show VCSH there. While mainly VFR conditions
expected to prevail area-wide, there is some potential for MVFR
cigs in southeast Kansas, though kept VFR for now. Light southerly
component surface flow will prevail this afternoon through early
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  68  94  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hutchinson      94  66  94  65 /  10  10  10  20
Newton          94  67  93  65 /  10  10  10  20
ElDorado        93  67  92  66 /  10  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   93  67  93  67 /  20  20  10  20
Russell         96  67  97  63 /  20  10  20  20
Great Bend      94  66  95  63 /  20  10  10  20
Salina          94  68  95  65 /  10  10  10  20
McPherson       94  66  94  65 /  10  10  10  20
Coffeyville     94  68  92  68 /  70  40  10  20
Chanute         95  68  93  67 /  20  20  10  10
Iola            94  67  92  66 /  20  20  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    94  68  93  68 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1153 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021400-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1153 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across far southern and
southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms
with wind gusts to 55 mph and locally heavy rain will be possible.

Isolated storms may also impact portions of central and south
central Kansas this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across
central and north-central Kansas late Friday afternoon and evening.
Dime to quarter size hail and 50 to 65 mph winds may accompany the
strongest activity. However, most locations will likely remain dry.

An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible each afternoon and
evening from Saturday through Wednesday across southeast Kansas.
Once again though, most locations will remain dry.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
252 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

KSZ099-100-012045-
Montgomery KS-Labette KS-
252 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Labette
and southeastern Montgomery Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 252 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coffeyville, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coffeyville, Independence, Cherryvale, Dearing, Mound Valley,
Liberty, Angola and Coffeyville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 9570 3724 9532 3700 9542 3700 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 187DEG 14KT 3703 9556

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JAKUB

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