Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Widely scattered showers and a few storms continue across central
KS, associated with some very weak mid level moisture transport.
This is located just ahead of a weak cold frontal boundary sagging
south into central KS.

For the late afternoon hours, expect the  north central KS cold
front to slowly shift S-SE, with some meager instability around 500-
1000 J/kg expected to be located along it. Expecting the atmosphere
to slowly become uncapped late this afternoon, for a chance of
scattered surface based convection, probably after 21z and certainly
by 00z.  Bulk shear values associated with the NW flow regime are
fairly impressive for this time of year, around 35 to 40 kts, with
the NW flow leading to fairly decent directional shear as well. So
even with the limited instability, could still see a few strong to
marginally severe storms, with quarter size hail and wind gusts to
60 mph the main concerns. Expect areas along and south highway 50 to
have the best chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, as the
frontal boundary drops south into south central KS by this evening.

Think this convection will be diurnally driven, and begin to wane
with the loss of the afternoon heating, but could see a few of the
strongest storms linger into the late evening hours across southern
KS.

Could see a possible uptick in the shower and thunderstorms over
southern KS, late tonight, as the frontal boundary lingers over
southern KS, with weak low level moisture transport expected over
the top of the boundary. Not expecting widespread showers, but
certainly a possible increase in coverage.

Expect counties along the KS/OK border to continue to have a chance
of showers and some embedded thunder on Sat, as the frontal boundary
makes slow progress into northern OK. Expect a more widespread heavy
rainfall chance across the panhandle of TX and most of OK on Sat, as
monsoonal moisture over the SW US, drifts east-northeast across OK
for Sat afternoon/evening. But, unfortunately, expect most of this
activity to stay south of the forecast area through Sunday.

Models suggest the forecast area will stay dry and seasonal for
Sunday through Mon, as the lingering heavy rainfall chances in OK,
slowly shift southeast into the Ark/La/Tex region.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Medium range models suggest that the NW flow pattern will continue
to dominate the weather pattern through the middle of next week.
This will lead to dry and seasonal conditions continuing for the
area with highs in the upper 80 to around 90.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Showers during the early portion of the period will likely give way
to thunderstorms. Currently only mention thunder KGBD and KSLN's
TAFs where thunder is ongoing at KGBD and higher confidence in
thunder this evening for KSLN. Confidence is lower at sites KHUT,

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  89  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
Hutchinson      63  89  64  89 /  30  10  10  10
Newton          64  88  63  88 /  30  10  10  10
ElDorado        64  88  64  87 /  30  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   66  90  68  87 /  30  20  20  30
Russell         61  88  61  89 /  20  10  10  10
Great Bend      61  87  62  88 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          62  88  61  88 /  30  10  10  10
McPherson       62  88  62  88 /  30  10  10  10
Coffeyville     67  92  68  89 /  30  30  30  30
Chanute         66  90  65  88 /  40  20  20  10
Iola            65  89  64  88 /  50  20  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    66  91  67  89 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CRW

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