Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
319 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Key Details:

*A heat advisory is in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening for
portions of central and south-central Kansas while an excessive heat
warning is in effect for southeast Kansas until 8 PM CDT this
evening. See product for latest details.

*An excessive heat warning is in effect from 8 PM CDT this evening
until 8 PM CDT Thursday evening for portions of south-central ans
southeast Kansas. See product for latest details.

*Marginally severe storms will be possible today across north-
central Kansas and again tomorrow across central, south-central, and
southeast Kansas.

A temporary break in riding will lead to a slow moving cold front to
move southward over north-central Kansas this afternoon. Ahead of
this front we will see highs in the upper 90s and low 100s. This
include our entire forecast area. The front is expected to reach
near or just north of the I-70 corridor this evening and will become
the focus of storms. At this time the severe threat appears to be
marginal. The GFS and NAM have good directional shear, but speed
shear leaves much to be desired with only 25 to 35kt of effective
shear. This would lead to mostly multi-cell storms with maybe a
severe report of quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds from
downbursts. The RAP and HRRR are a little more impressive with 35-
40kt of effective shear and 40kt of 0-3km shear, which would support
more organized convection with the potential for significant hail of
2+ inches and 60 mph winds.

Thursday has a similar setup further south over central, south-
central, and southeast Kansas. Marginal shear should lead to mainly
multi-cell storms with perhaps quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds
possible. Highs ahead of the front will be in the upper 90s and low
100s with heat indices of 105+ expected for south-central and
southeast Kansas. The front should be through most of the CWA by
Friday with highs generally in the low to mid 90s north of the
front. South of the front highs will be in the upper 90s for far
southeast Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Upper riding will build back in this weekend and bring another short
lived heat wave with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s Sunday
into Monday. By late Monday the ridge begins to retrograde westward
putting us under northwest flow. The global ensembles are in pretty
good agreement on the westward movement of the ridge, the
deterministic GFS is hinting towards a piece of energy moving
southeastward over Kansas, which would hint towards a possible MCS.
The GFS is currently the only model with that piece of energy so for
now will just keep low PoPs for the late Monday through Wednesday
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Latest surface analysis showing a trough extending roughly
from KMHK to east of KOEL to west of KDDC. some CU Congestus
continues to bubble along this boundary, as noted on visible
satellite. Convection is expected to develop along this boundary
this evening. Severe weather threat is marginal at this time.

Winds will remain 15G25KT from 150-170 degrees across the region
into the evening, then slacken as diurnal heating diminishes. The
though is expected to move south across the region tonight and
reside from a KSLN-KPTT line. Cigs and Vsbys VFR except in TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    79 100  74  94 /  20  10  40  10
Hutchinson      76  98  72  93 /  30  20  30  10
Newton          77  98  73  92 /  30  20  40  10
ElDorado        77  98  74  92 /  10  10  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   79 101  76  95 /  10  10  30  10
Russell         71  92  69  90 /  50  20  30  10
Great Bend      71  95  70  92 /  40  20  30   0
Salina          76  96  71  91 /  40  20  40  10
McPherson       75  97  71  91 /  30  20  40  10
Coffeyville     78 103  77  99 /  10   0  20  20
Chanute         78  99  76  94 /  10  10  30  20
Iola            78  98  76  93 /  10  10  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    78 101  77  97 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT
Thursday for KSZ052-053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRW
LONG TERM...CRW
AVIATION...KRC

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