Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Currently have a large area of upper high pressure centered over
TX with a compact upper trough approaching the Great Basin. In
addition, water vapor imagery continues to show a mid level
moisture plume, with tropical connection, extending across the
area. At the surface, high dewpoints continue to funnel into
central KS on southeast winds with a low level dry punch extending
from north of KGLD to near KHYS.

Storms are expected to develop later this afternoon over NW KS
and SW Nebraska there loose dryline intersects the better low
level moisture. This will likely be somewhere in the KHLC
vicinity. Any storms that develop will likely persist for several
hours aided by increasing low level jet and persistent 850-700mb
theta-e advection. Will be plenty of CAPE and enough deep layer
shear for severe storms with any of the activity that develops.
Will be a tornado threat generally north of I-70 where deep
southeast winds allow for better low level shear. So highest
storm chances tonight will remain for areas along and north of
I-70.

Main story for Fri will remain the brief return of extreme heat.
Many locations along and west of I-135 will reach or top 100 Fri
afternoon. The only good news is that dewpoints should mix-out in
these same locations which should keep the heat indices from
getting too extreme. Attention will then turn to a significant
cool down by the end of the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

There remains good model agreement in a shortwave trough swinging
across the Northern Plains for Fri night through Sat. This will
allow a cold front to sink south across the Central and Southern
Plains. It is expected to move into our forecast area Sat morning,
moving through Wichita during the late afternoon. While we are not
looking for widespread storms along the front as it surges south,
can't rule out a few storms along it as cap starts to erode Sat
afternoon. May actually see an uptick in storm coverage Sat night
as a few upper impulses track over the Southern/Central Rockies
and out into KS.

The bigger story will finally be some cooler temps. We are still
looking for highs for both Sun and Mon in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees, which is around 10 degrees below normal. Will start to
see temps warm back closer to seasonal normals for Tue as the
surface high shifts east and we get back into some return flow, as
we get back to above normal temps by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Scattered storms will affect parts of central Kansas into the late
evening hours. Meanwhile VFR conditions will prevail across
southern/southeast Kansas for the next 24hrs. Winds will remain
out of the southeast and increase during the day on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76 100  78  98 /  10   0  10  20
Hutchinson      75 100  77  95 /  20   0  10  20
Newton          75  99  77  96 /  20   0  10  20
ElDorado        75  96  77  96 /  10   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   75  98  78 100 /  10   0   0  10
Russell         73 103  71  92 /  40   0  10  20
Great Bend      74 102  73  92 /  20   0  10  20
Salina          73  99  78  94 /  40   0  10  20
McPherson       75  98  78  95 /  20   0  10  20
Coffeyville     73  96  77  97 /  20   0   0  10
Chanute         72  95  77  97 /  10   0  10  10
Iola            72  95  77  96 /  10  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    73  95  77  97 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon through Tonight

The highest severe storm threat will be for areas generally along
and north of Highway 56. Hail up to half dollar size and downburst
winds to 65 mph will be the main threats. In addition, a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out generally north of Highway 70 early this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

On Friday, afternoon heat indices will climb to 102 to 105 area
wide. Heat indices on Saturday afternoon are anticipated to be in
the 100 to 105 degree range in portions of south central and
southeast Kansas.

There are additional chances for storms Saturday through Sunday as a
cold front makes its way across the area. A few strong storms will be
possible with this activity along with heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight but we would
appreciate any reports of severe weather or flooding.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Ketcham

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
436 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             1 N RUSSELL             38.90N 98.85W
06/23/2022  E1.00 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
512 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E RUSSELL             38.89N 98.83W
06/23/2022                   RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS JUST
            NORTHEAST OF RUSSELL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
519 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     FLOOD            RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
06/23/2022                   RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
            TOWN OF RUSSELL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TORNADO          3 NE BUNKER HILL        38.90N 98.66W
06/23/2022                   RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 3-5 MILES NORTHEAST
            OF BUNKER HILL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
557 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TORNADO          1 NE DORRANCE           38.86N 98.58W
06/23/2022                   RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF OF A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN
            JUST NORTHEAST OF DORRANCE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          6 S SYLVAN GROVE        38.93N 98.39W
06/23/2022                   LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWN AROUND 6 MILES
            SOUTH OF SYLVAN GROVE.

&&