Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Bottom Line Up Front:

High wind and Fire weather concerns will diminish through the
afternoon and into the evening hours.

Severe weather this afternoon is possible but unlikely.  Much better
chance for severe weather during the overnight hours.

Main challenge with this forecast run will be the timing and
intensity of the thunderstorm activity during the overnight hours.
Morning soundings from TOP show a very strong mid level CAP in place
over the region.  DDC sounding also shows a similar but weaker CAP
but also is much drier.  FV3/RAP/NAM model soundings for the
afternoon and evening also show a strong mid level CAP and mediocre
mid level shear this afternoon.  Despite this, lapse rates, CAPE
values in the 1500-2500 J/Kg range and the presence of dry line over
the central areas of the CWA provide enough conditions for
thunderstorms to develop.  This time around though, the CAP is so
strong and the dry line is rather diffuse which severely limits its
convective capability. As such, thunderstorm development this
afternoon is unlikely. That said, should a thunderstorm break the
CAP and develop, the conditions do exist for that thunderstorm to
rapidly go severe with all hazards possible.

Later this evening and into the overnight, the cold front and it's
strong attendant upper level jet stream will begin to transit the
region.  This action will provide the needed power to break through
the CAP and provide the CWA with a much better chance for
thunderstorm activity.  Severe thunderstorms are likely during this
time with large hail and severe level winds being the primary
threat.  Tornadic probabilities appear to be rather low but given
very good low level turning on model hodographs tonight, a brief
tornado can't be ruled out.  This round of thunderstorm activity
will likely end in the early morning Wednesday and likely exit the
CWA around dawn.

Once the cold front passes, the thunderstorm threat will come to an
end as the winds kick around to northwest and will remain brisk for
the rest of the night and through Wednesday. CAA will dominate and
the skies will clear up some.  This Canadian airmass is rather
strong and will keep temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday down a
little below normal.  Thursday night, the winds will slack off and
shift to the south.  This will allow WAA to return to the region and
allow Friday to be warmer.  Temperatures for most areas are likely
to be close to or a little above normal.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

The extended range looks mildly active with a couple of weak waves of
energy coming through the region. The first will arrive Friday night
and into Saturday which may bring a chance for shower or
thunderstorm activity.  This activity does not appear severe in any
way and looks to be restricted to the south and eastern portion of
the CWA.  Temperatures will drop back below normal for Saturday but
are likely to come back to or a little above normal ahead of the
next and likely more powerful system Sunday night.  It is at this
point the models diverge significantly with the ECMWF families
indicating a good chance for showers and thunderstorms while the GFS
and Canadian families are much drier.  All the ensembles indicating
another shot of cold air coming into the region behind this front
bring temperatures back down below normal.  Considering the
differences in the long range ensemble families, confidence remain
low in the extended range.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

A strong cold front will surge southeast across the region this
evening and tonight. Strong/gusty south winds are expected ahead
of the front, along with a strong low-level jet, which will
support low-level wind shear within the lowest 2000 ft AGL. Behind
the front, strong/gusty northwest winds will prevail. Will likely
see a line of thunderstorms zipper south down the cold front this
evening, possibly impacting SLN-HUT-ICT-CNU this evening and
overnight. Timed this thunderstorm threat out in the latest 00z
TAFs. Winds will subside some as the night progresses, but will
likely remain breezy/gusty through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Extreme fire weather conditions are expected to continue through the
afternoon and into the early evening today.  Once the front passes
tonight, fire conditions will drop into the very high overnight then
below high as the wind die off.  Wednesday, western areas of the CWA
will get into the very high category, especially Russell and Lincoln
counties due to very low humidities.  This will only last a few
hours and as winds will continue to diminish and fire danger will
drop. This will be the case through Thursday with cooler
temperatures and lighter winds.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  56  32  65 /  50  10   0   0
Hutchinson      40  56  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
Newton          42  55  30  62 /  70  10   0   0
ElDorado        44  55  32  63 /  80  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   47  58  32  66 /  50  10   0   0
Russell         33  55  26  62 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      35  55  26  62 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          40  56  28  62 /  50  10   0   0
McPherson       40  55  28  62 /  40  10   0   0
Coffeyville     52  59  34  66 /  70  40   0   0
Chanute         49  56  33  64 /  70  30   0   0
Iola            48  55  33  63 /  80  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  58  33  65 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ052-053-068>072-
083-092>096-098>100.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-068-082-091.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051-067-082-
091.

&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...ELM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
440 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW MCPHERSON          38.35N 97.68W
04/12/2022  M62 MPH          MCPHERSON          KS   AWOS

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NNE EL DORADO         37.93N 96.77W
04/12/2022  M62 MPH          BUTLER             KS   MESONET

0345 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SSW WESTFALL          38.84N 98.07W
04/12/2022  M57 MPH          ELLSWORTH          KS   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST RUSSELL AIRPORT         38.87N 98.82W
04/12/2022  M62 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

0355 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
04/12/2022  M58 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   ASOS

            MEASURED AT COLONEL JAMES JABARA AIRPORT.

0333 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WICHITA EISENHOWER AIRP 37.66N 97.44W
04/12/2022  M57 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
518 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HUTCHINSON AIRPORT      38.07N 97.87W
04/12/2022  M54 MPH          RENO               KS   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
714 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NW GREAT BEND         38.39N 98.85W
04/12/2022                   BARTON             KS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE SENT VIA TWITTER OF ABOUT A 12 INCH
            DIAMETER CEDAR TREE THAT WAS SNAPPED IN THE
            WIND.

&&

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