Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

The current upper trough over the Central and Northern Plains will
continue to shift north and east away from our region. A frontal
boundary will push into south-central and southeast Kansas today and
become the focus of a round of storms. Mesoscale models are in
pretty good agreement with the best low-level convergence and 850mb
moisture support aligning near the Kansas Turnpike which is where
storms are expected to go up. For any storms that do occur marginal
severe weather is expected with 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail.
The frontal boundary will retreat northwards tonight with another
round of elevated storms possible tonight over central Kansas. Some
of these storms could be marginally severe with 60 mph winds and
quarter sized hail as well.

Ridging quickly builds back in by Thursday and heat returns. The old
frontal boundary is expected to diffuse and little support will be
in place to initiate storms, so dry weather is expected. The heat
looks to continue Friday and Saturday as well.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

The next system on the horizon will enter the Pacific Northwest
early Friday and will slowly move into the northern Rockies and the
Northern Plains. Uncertainty exist in how far south the trough digs
and where it ejects, but this looks to be the next chance for cooler
weather and storms. Otherwise, hot and dry weather is expected to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

A slow moving frontal boundary will push south across southeast
Kansas tonight. Scattered storms will continue to develop along
the frontal boundary mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. The
frontal boundary will stall and lift back to the north late
tonight into Thursday morning. This will cause light northeast
winds behind the front to switch to the east, then southeast
during the day as the frontal boundary lifts back north. VFR
conditions expected for all sites, there is a remote chance that
an isolated storm could affect CNU site later this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  99  74  99 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      71  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          72  97  73  98 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        72  94  73  96 /  30  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   74  97  73  98 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         65 100  73 102 /  30  20  10   0
Great Bend      68 100  73 101 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          68 100  74 101 /  10  10  10   0
McPherson       70  98  73  99 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     75  94  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
Chanute         74  94  73  96 /  20  10   0   0
Iola            74  94  73  95 /  20  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    75  94  73  97 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-048-
049.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRW
LONG TERM...CRW
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
255 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
255 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening along and east
of the Kansas Turnpike, then again late tonight into early Thursday
morning across central Kansas. A few strong to marginally severe
storms will be possible, with downburst winds to 60 mph, up to
quarter- size hail, and localized heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Afternoon heat indices will be around 100 degrees from Thursday
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict