Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

Key Details:

* A slight risk is in place for the entire CWA with significant wind
  possible.

* A flood watch is in effect for portions of south-central and
  southeast Kansas.

* Drier and much warmer weather is expected towards the end of the
  weekend and into early next week.

This Evening and Tonight:

Not much has changed to increase confidence on the location of
storms. The mesoscale and global models still vary on where the best
moisture transport will occur thus setting up the location where the
MCS will likely track. The RAP, Canadian suite, and the HRW-FV3 are
further west with the moisture transport, with the RAP and Canadian
models favoring south-central and southern Kansas down into
Oklahoma. The HRW-FV3 progresses the MCS further east, but the
moisture transport would probably favor something closer to the I-
135 corridor. The GFS, HRRR, and NAM are all further east with the
moisture transport and progress the MCS more towards far southeast
Kansas and into Missouri. The WRF ARW and NSSL are somewhere in
between.

As of now the RAP seems to have a better evolution of the
current precip trends over central Kansas, but would still like to
see continued consistency from it before leaning towards that
solution. Nonetheless the potential will be there for a significant
wind event. Models are in pretty good agreement for 50 to 70 knots
of deep layer effective shear, greater than 2000 j/kg of most
unstable CAPE, and 700-500mb lapse rates will be greater than 8
degrees C/km. The main hazards will be hail up to ping pong sized,
damaging winds possibly greater than 70 mph, and a couple of brief
tornadoes. Along with the severe threat will be a threat for
flooding. Torrential rain could lead to flash flooding in some areas
that have already received a lot of rain this week. precipitable
Water will be well above the 90s percentile this evening so any
storm will be an efficient rain maker. A flood watch has been issued
for portions of south-central, central, and southeast Kansas where
the highest confidence in storms appears to be.

Friday through Sunday:

The pattern becomes more amplified in the pacific, which will allow
the ridge over the Rockies to amplify and shift eastward. This will
bring hot and dry weather this weekend with highs on Sunday
approaching the upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

The pattern continues to amplify in the Pacific as we see highs
approach 100 in our western locations on Monday. A shortwave trough
will begin to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday and keep
temps in the low to mid 90s. Another chance for storms is expected
Tuesday evening into Wednesday with a cold front behind it that
would cool us back into the mid 80s on Wednesday. Models still
differ on both the timing and depth of this trough so stay tuned as
we refine the forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

Main aviation concerns this period will be strong to severe
storms that are expected to move across the area. Storms are
currently developing over central KS and are expected to grow
upscale, capable of damaging winds of 60-70mph and hail up to golf
ball sized. While timing is a little suspect, a best estimate of
TSRA was inserted at most sites via tempo group. Expect
reductions in flight categories as the storms pass through.

Otherwise, expect winds to become more light and variable toward
morning behind the storm complex. Winds will be me mostly out of
the northeast by the end of the TAF period. MVFR cigs will be
possible during the morning hours tomorrow across portions of
south central and southeast KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  84  64  88 /  60  20   0   0
Hutchinson      63  83  63  88 /  60  10   0   0
Newton          64  82  63  86 /  60  10   0   0
ElDorado        64  81  63  84 /  60  30   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  84  64  86 /  60  30   0   0
Russell         61  83  62  93 /  50   0  10  10
Great Bend      61  83  63  91 /  50   0  10   0
Salina          63  84  63  89 /  60   0  10  10
McPherson       63  82  62  87 /  60  10  10   0
Coffeyville     64  82  64  85 /  60  70  10   0
Chanute         64  81  63  84 /  60  60   0   0
Iola            63  80  63  84 /  60  60   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    64  82  64  85 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053-068>072-
083-092>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRW
LONG TERM...CRW
AVIATION...KMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-102015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
310 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Minor flooding is forecast along the Cow Creek near Hutchinson
tonight.

The potential for severe weather increases tonight, as one or more
fast-moving thunderstorm complexes races southeast across the
region. While some large hail up to ping pong sized is possible,
especially early on, the primary threat will be damaging winds
greater than 70 mph. The damaging wind threat could be fairly
widespread, although there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on
where these thunderstorms will form and track. Locally heavy
rainfall and pockets of flash flooding are possible as well. Stay
tuned to the weather, and ensure you have multiple to receive
warnings.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periodic low thunderstorm chances are expected Saturday night
through Wednesday, especially over the northern half of Kansas, and
mainly during the evening and overnight hours. A few strong to
severe storms are possible, although widespread severe weather
appears unlikely at this time.

Hot summer-like temperatures are expected to return Saturday
through Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices around 100 degrees
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

KSZ032-100530-
Russell KS-
1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Russell
County through 1230 AM CDT...

At 1144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Natoma, or 14 miles north of Emmeram, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Luray, Paradise and Waldo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9868 3891 9871 3892 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 305DEG 19KT 3916 9905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CARUSO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1204 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

KSZ033-048-049-100545-
Ellsworth KS-Lincoln KS-Saline KS-
1204 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Lincoln, eastern Ellsworth and southwestern Saline Counties through
1245 AM CDT...

At 1204 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Kanopolis, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salina, Ellsworth, Kanopolis, Geneseo, Brookville, Smolan, Falun,
Kanopolis Lake, Kanopolis State Park and Ellsworth Airport.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 214 and 234.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9761 3852 9813 3852 9822 3887 9833
      3894 9808
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 311DEG 32KT 3882 9808

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CARUSO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

KSZ032-047-048-100600-
Ellsworth KS-Russell KS-Barton KS-
1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Ellsworth, southeastern Russell and northeastern Barton Counties
through 100 AM CDT...

At 1219 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilson, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wilson, Dorrance, Bunker Hill, Wilson Lake and Wilson State Park.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 189 and 214.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 9864 3893 9848 3887 9848 3887 9832
      3865 9826 3864 9861 3884 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 282DEG 13KT 3877 9851

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CARUSO