Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Bottom Line Up Front:  Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
some likely severe with torrential rain can be expected.  All
threats likely with this activity.

Main challenge for this forecast cycle will be the timing, intensity
and location of the expected weather for the late afternoon and the
overnight period.  Current satellite indicates moisture transport
pushing into the region behind the MCS that moved through early this
morning.  Usually, a morning MCS would work over the atmosphere
enough to prevent much if any activity. This time around, there is a
relatively strong mid level disturbance progged to come through the
region late this afternoon and evening.  With little convection
during the day, the solar heating will overcome this impediment and
allow the needed instability to return.  CAPE values by the late
afternoon are expected to be in the 3000 J/Kg range with low level
in the 30kt range provides a good chance for large hail, 80 mph and
a few tornadoes as well.  Low and mid level shear vectors are
predominantly parallel which lends to a MCS mode rather than a
discrete mode. This will limit the tornado chances this evening but
it can't be ruled out.  The best chance for a tornado will be if a
storm goes up on an outflow boundary ahead of the main thunderstorm
complex.  IF this occurs, the chances for a tornado will be greater.

Another concern will be rainfall.  Much of the region has already
received a significant mount of rain over the past few weeks making
the ground already saturated and not able to take much more.  PW
values ahead of this expected thunderstorm complex are in the 1.3 to
1.5 inch range which is well above normal. This indicates a higher
chance for flooding and will need to be considered (see hydro
section for more details).

Monday will be a calmer day behind this activity.  There appears to
be enough subsidence to keep the convection out of the picture for
at least a day.  Temperatures for Monday will be kept in check and
likely be a little below normal for this time of year as there will
be some weak CAA at the mid levels.  Monday night, the next mid and
upper level disturbance will begin to push into the region.  The low
and mid levels slowly kick back around to the south and allow the
moisture transport to return fueling potential convection once
again. This appears to be a two night show with one round of thunder
likely Monday night and Tuesday morning and then again Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.  Severe weather with this events looks less
likely than tonight but can't be ruled out either.  At this time,
the model ensembles are clustering the severe weather probability in
the western areas of the CWA and into Western Kansas.  Temperatures
for Tuesday and Wednesday will again be kept in check by the cloud
cover and many areas my struggle to get into the 80s.  Overnight
lows will likely remain mild due to cloud cover an lack of
significant CAA into he region during this time.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

The extended range looks to remain active through end of the weekend
with good chances for thunderstorm activity.  Moisture transport
ahead of this activity continues to look good and be strong enough
to support another round of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Unfortunately, the extended range ensembles are having difficulty
resolving the location and the timing of this activity.  As such,
confidence on timing and intensity is rather low. That said, it does
appear likely that showers and thunderstorms will remain a good
possibility through Saturday morning.  Temperatures during this time
reflect this possibility and are expected to remain a little below
normal.  Next weekend, the model ensembles diverge on their
solutions.  The GFS families dry the region out and create a strong
ridging pattern while the ECMWF/Canadian families keep the ridge in
check and keep the rain chances up.  The current pattern in the
Central Pacific is much more conducive to the ECMWF/Canadian
solution as the GFS solution would require a significant pattern
change in the Pacific to permit a strong ridge to build into the
region.  As such, kept the inits as is due to this uncertainty.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Cluster of thunderstorms continues to fester over central KS at this
time, So will go with prevailing SHRA/VCTS for the KRSL taf
location.  Could see some gusty winds to 40 to 45 kts in and near
the strongest storms.

Expect this cluster of storms to become more organized as the
evening progresses, with the thunderstorms expected to surge to the
east-southeast as the low level jet increases. Adjusted timing of
the VCTS and tempo TSRA for the rest of the central KS and south
central KS tafs, with TSRA now expected to surge southeast, after
02z and potentially as late as 03-04z. Could see some gusty winds
with the stronger storms and some MVFR vsbys so will include this in
a tempo group between 02-05z/Mon for all locations except KSLN.

Ketcham

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Moisture advection this evening and overnight will be very prevalent
and will keep the PW values elevated.  Expected PWs this evening
will be in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range which is well above the average
of 0.88 inches for this time of year.  A 700mb disturbance will be
pushing through the region late this afternoon and evening and will
create a large complex of thunderstorms.  Additionally, BUFKIT
soundings indicate a saturated column up to 15Kft supporting the
high PW values.  Corfidi vectors are also conducive to a prolonged
rain event.  Fortunately, mid and upper level flow is more favorable
for a progressive event.  This set up lends to a high likelyhood of
a thunderstorm complex producing very heavy rain but being fairly
progressive allowing it transit the region in a few hours. While
this set up usually does not create a significant flood threat, many
of the soils in Central, South Central and Southeast Kansas are
already saturated.  Many areas of Central Kansas received over three
inches of rain just last night.  This indicates the ground will not
be able to absorb much if any additional rainfall from this expected
event. This creates a significant flood threat through the region
and is the reason for the flood watch issuance.  This set up will
create a risk of all types of flooding to include, river, areal and
flash flooding. Flash flooding will be the most likely in areas
which received multiple inches of rain last night and yesterday.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  85  66  82 /  80  10  40  40
Hutchinson      62  85  64  82 /  90  10  40  40
Newton          63  84  65  81 /  90  10  40  50
ElDorado        64  83  65  80 / 100  10  10  50
Winfield-KWLD   65  84  67  82 /  90  10  10  40
Russell         61  82  60  83 /  90  10  60  40
Great Bend      61  85  61  82 /  80  10  60  40
Salina          63  84  62  83 /  90  10  50  50
McPherson       62  84  63  81 /  90  10  50  50
Coffeyville     66  84  67  83 /  90  30  10  60
Chanute         65  83  66  81 /  90  30  10  60
Iola            65  82  66  81 /  90  30  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    66  84  67  82 /  90  20  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ033-048>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...Metzger
LONG TERM...Metzger
AVIATION...Ketcham
HYDROLOGY...Metzger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
356 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-062100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
356 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop later this
afternoon and evening over Central and Northwest Kansas. The
initial storms will be capable of producing very large hail up to
two inches size and damaging winds around 70 mph. The activity will
gradually become more numerous and converge into a southeastward
moving line of storms during the evening, with the main risk
gradually transitioning to damaging winds and torrential downpours,
which could cause some flooding problems. The hail size potential
will begin to decrease once the storms form into a line during the
evening and overnight, with hail around quarter size possible. See
the severe thunderstorm watch for more details.

Flood issues are likely with river, area and flash flooding possible
tonight. Saline, Mcpherson, Marion, Chase, Greenwood and portion of
northern Butler counties are the most likely to experience flash
flooding. See flood watch for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The active weather pattern looks to continue, with additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms almost every night from
Monday night through Thursday night. Some of the storms could be
strong or severe. In addition, this active weather pattern could
cause some flooding problems to occur due to several rounds of heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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