Freeze Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Barton County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

Large upper low currently spinning over the Great Lakes will lead to
continued north to northwest flow across the region today. This will
lead to diurnally driven gusty northwest winds continuing across the
region today, though winds are not expected to be as strong as the
previous couple of days, as the upper low gradually pulls a little
further east of the area. The deep mixing associated with the winds
will lead to very dry air again mixing down to the surface, which
will lead to another critical fire weather day. (See the Fire
weather section below).

Weak ridging is expected to move over the area early on Saturday,
ahead of the next shortwave expected to move into the Pacific NW.
Winds are expected to become light by early Sat, with dry air and
clear skies looking to support optimal radiational cooling
conditions with early morning temperatures on Sat expected to be 3
or 4 degrees below freezing across central and perhaps southern
Kansas. Since we are getting further into April and recent budding
of some trees and flowering plants, will go ahead with a freeze
warning for the entire region. given the large Temperature/dewpoint
spreads expected, not sure we will see alot of frost, but
expect minimum temperatures close to 4 degrees below freezing.

For the rest of the weekend, expect a nice warming trend as surface
flow returns to the south by Saturday afternoon with the development
of a warm front expected to pushing across the area by Sat evening
into early on Sun. A portion of the northwest shortwave will move
across the northern Plains on Sunday, with a modest cold front
expected to merge with a dryline and move across the area by Sunday
afternoon. Even with the cold front, still expecting a warm day on
Sunday, given good compressional heating ahead of the front/dryline.
Moisture return with the southerly flow on Sunday, isnt all that
impressive, mainly limited to the Flint Hills and SE KS before the
front moves through. Though convergence along the front may lead to
a few showers/storms by Sunday evening/night. So will keep a small
pop for this chance.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

Medium range model solutions continue to suggest that deeper
shortwave will drop south into the southern Rockies and out into the
plains by the middle of the week.  Still some uncertainty on timing
and how deep this shortwave will be, as it comes into the plains.
Also, some differences between the GFS and ECMWF on moisture quality
and location.  Either solution bears watching, as dynamics and low
level moisture suggests a strong/severe storm chance, either Tue
evening or possibly on Wed. Stay tuned.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

Northwest winds have diminished even further than previously
thought for most locations. Scattered to broken cloud cover
lingers at generally around 7k feet; these clouds should diminish
in the next six hours. Minimal cloud cover is expected for most
of the TAF period. Northwesterly winds will be gusty again today
but are not expected to be quite as strong as Thursday with gusts
of only around 30kts. Diminishing winds should occur around 0z and
become light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

Northwest winds will remain diurnally gusty today, though
not as strong as the past couple of days. However more sunshine is
expected and lower daytime relative humidity values will still
result in very high to possibly extreme grassland fire danger. So a
Red Flag warning has been issued for today. Milder southerly winds
will increase across central Kansas on Saturday with very high fire
danger likely, especially for areas west of Interstate 135, though
remaining below the more critical thresholds. A wind shift with a
dry-line/cold front can be expected on Sunday with a period of very
high fire danger as well.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  31  73  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      57  28  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          55  29  71  54 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        55  30  71  54 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   57  30  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         58  27  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      57  28  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          57  27  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       56  28  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     56  29  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         53  28  68  52 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            52  28  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    54  28  69  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
820 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
820 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Very high to possibly extreme grassland fire danger is expected on
Friday afternoon from the Flint Hills westward across central
Kansas. Refer to the Fire Weather Watch for details. Very high fire
danger is possible over the weekend into early next week.

Freezing temperatures are forecast for central Kansas and parts of
southern Kansas early Saturday morning. If you have tender plants
or vegetation, you may need to take action, if possible, to protect
them from the cold.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across portions
of south central and southeast Kansas for early next week. Strong
to severe storms may be possible, so check back for updated
outlooks and forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict