Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(This Afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Another hot and humid afternoon across the Tennessee Valley with
19z temperatures in the mid 90s in most locations. Combined with
the higher relative humidity values, heat indices have climbed
into the 105 to 110 degree range. A scattered Cu field has
developed across the area this afternoon, but they have not shown
much vertical depth yet. While a rogue shower or storm can't be
ruled out in next couple of hours, think subsidence will generally
win out.

We'll have to watch for the development of convection
very late this afternoon into this evening across west central
Georgia and drifting eastward into portions of east central
Alabama around 00z along a remnant outflow boundary. Some of the
latest CAMs push this activity into portions of DeKalb, Marshall,
and Jackson counties between 00-03z. Localized damaging winds and
heavy downpours will be the main threat with this activity, but
steep lapse rates will make marginally severe hail possible as
well with the strongest cells. This activity will quickly wane
after 03z as the atmosphere stabilizes and as a result most
locations across our area will remain rain-free once again
overnight. It will once again be a very warm, muggy night as low
temperatures bottom out in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

We'll be primed for more hot/humid days on Thursday and Friday
underneath an amplifying ridge of high pressure across the Deep
South. With thickness values and 850 mb temperatures progged to
increase slightly, an uptick in our temperatures can also be
expected, especially Thursday, across the entire area. Highs in
the mid to upper 90s will be common. A few sites will attempt to
make a run at the 100 degree mark, depending on cloud cover both
days. A few isolated showers or storms will be possible on
Thursday, but overall think the strong subsidence from the ridge
will keep chances suppressed.

Slightly better rain chances may exist late Friday afternoon and
evening as a weak shortwave traverses the area, potentially
bringing a round of widely scattered showers and storms to part of
the area. However, the best forcing will be displaced north and
east of the area, but with high CAPE values and steep low-level
lapse rates gusty winds and hail may be possible with the
strongest activity. A drier air mass will filter into the area in
wake of this feature, giving us a reprieve from the higher
humidity as the center of the ridge briefly shifts back into
TX/OK. However, our temperatures won't drop off a whole lot as
highs will peak in the low to mid 90s both days. It will more
noticeable in the evenings and overnight with more comfortable
low temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will then build back
into the Tennessee Valley during the early to middle parts of next
week. Expect continued hot and dry weather to continue as high
temperatures will return to the 95 to 100 degree range each day.
In fact, MSL or HSV may hit 100 degrees at least one of these
days, which would mark the first time since 2019 this has
occurred. One important note will be the drier air mass which will
limit heat indices from getting too out of hand. Additional Heat
Advisories may be needed next week due to the hot air
temperatures, but heat indices may not climb much above 105
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period
with light winds and a partly cloudy sky (with ceilings around 4
kft).

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP.24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-161045-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon through Tonight...

Afternoon heat indices will peak in the 105 to 110 degree range this
afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon, as an upper
disturbance moves across the region. A few of these storms will be
capable of strong gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Afternoon heat indices will peak in the 105 to 110 degree range
Thursday and Friday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Isolated mainly afternoon thunderstorms are also possible Thursday
and Friday, as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. A
few of these storms may produce gusty winds, small hail and locally
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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