Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1202 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 910 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022

A deepening upper low/trough will pivot into the Tennessee Valley
late this morning into the afternoon. Ample moisture advection has
taken place ahead of a surface cold front to our west as seen by
dewpoints in the 60s ahead of this front. A subtle prefrontal
boundary is present along the AL/MS border where slightly richer
moisture exists as seen by mid/upper 60s dewpoints in the
observations. It is this feature that will likely be our source for
scattered thunderstorms later this morning and into the early
afternoon. Given the current timing of this feature, the best
prospects for any strong to severe storms will be for areas roughly
along and EAST of the I-65 corridor in the Slight Risk area. It is
here where better heating/destabilization will take place before the
arrival of the aforementioned boundary. This, combined, with a
favorable shear profile will promote a threat for some organized
storms capable of damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps
a tornado (though the chances of this appear to be low). The main
timeframe for these storms will be the late morning/midday (10 AM to
12 PM) along the I-65 corridor and early afternoon (12 PM to 3 PM) in
northeast Alabama. Complicating things will be additional
convergence boundaries to the south which could also serve as a focus
for storms in central Alabama (in a more unstable environment). If
convective initiation takes places here earlier than expected, it's
possible the Tennessee Valley could get "cut-off", resulting in a
more limited severe threat this afternoon. Regardless, think the
threat for severe weather will largely come to an end in our far
eastern areas no later than mid-afternoon (~2-3 PM). Breezy winds
will also exist through the remainder of the day just due to the
strong pressure gradient associated with this system. Additional
cloud cover and showers may be possible along the front late in the
day, but a cooler, drier air mass will sweep into the area behind
this system by this evening.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022

Tonight, as the sfc low pushes eastward out of the OH Valley and into
the Mid Atlantic, on the back side of the system we will have a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm linger across portions of
NE AL and Southern Middle TN. The cold front will officially move
through late tonight/early Saturday morning. This will bring all
showers to an end and will start to filter in drier air, but winds
will remain breezy. Overnight lows will reach the mid 50s and the CAA
on Saturday will keep daytime highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022

By Saturday evening, an area of low pressure that in part brought
showers to the area on Friday should be moving off of the Mid
Atlantic coast. However unlike most systems that further depart the
coast, this one will hang around off of the East Coast; as the
eastern "anchor" of an Omega-like block forecast to form over the
CONUS early next week. Another upper low along the West Coast and
upper ridging over the central CONUS constitutes the rest of the
block. A northern flow rounding the western side of the eastern low
will bring cooler air from high pressure over SE Canada. This will
produce a gradient in temperatures from west to east - colder due to
a still chilly North Atlantic basin. Higher terrain to our east
however will shield most of the area from the chilling effect of this
northerly flow.

That said, after a cool night Sat night with lows dropping to around
50, Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies with highs warming into
the mid 70s east to near 80 our western areas. Night time will show
the temperature gradient more, with lows in the low/mid 50s east to
around 60 west. Monday will have warmer temps, with highs ranging
from the mid/upper 80s east to lower 90s west. A warmer than normal
trend continue across the Tennessee Valley for Tue/Wed with highs
ranging from the mid/upper 80s east to around/low 90s west. Dry
weather is forecast across the Valley through Thursday. The
aformentioned upper low after midweek will begin retrograding to the
SW, nearing NE Florida towards next Friday. As it slides inland,
moisture from it could return rain chances for late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022

Scattered TSRA will push through northern Alabama early this
afternoon, with gusty winds and reduced visibilities possible thru
19z at both terminals. Gusty WSW/SW winds will continue through the
remainder of the day ahead of a cold front. This evening and
overnight, winds will gradually subside but low MVFR stratus will
linger overnight and through the morning hours on Saturday. Winds
will also veer to a NW direction.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM...JMS
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...AMP.24

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

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